(06-25-2013 07:21 PM)BewareThePhog Wrote:  KU just got cozier with our friends in Bristol: http://www.kuathletics.com/genrel/062513aaa.html

Good for Kansas.
ESPN continues to solidify it's basketball offering. This also insures that Kansas will be on ESPN even if the world wide leader and the B1G can't come to terms.

(06-25-2013 07:36 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(06-25-2013 07:21 PM)BewareThePhog Wrote:  KU just got cozier with our friends in Bristol: http://www.kuathletics.com/genrel/062513aaa.html

quite the chess move made by ESPN.

Exactly. Fox has been buying these types of packages from schools recently to build ties with schools as much as buy content. Now ESPN is doing the same. Is this the networks leveraging themselves with these schools for when realignment resumes, or is this a new business model. I say the former.

(06-25-2013 07:48 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-25-2013 07:21 PM)BewareThePhog Wrote:  KU just got cozier with our friends in Bristol: http://www.kuathletics.com/genrel/062513aaa.html

Good for Kansas.
ESPN continues to solidify it's basketball offering. This also insures that Kansas will be on ESPN even if the world wide leader and the B1G can't come to terms.

Yep, and it may mean more than that.

"Kansas' ESPN deal could be precursor to another wave of realignment"

"There will be another wave of realignment. The ACC's agreement to a Grant of Rights for the remainder of its media rights deal with ESPN merely pressed the pause button. This wave of realignment was defined by cable subscriber fees and new markets. What will define the next one? We're about to find out."

"So how will conferences and schools respond to this? The most likely answer is further consolidation. The NFL commands massive prices because it is the only seller of premium professional football. Even ESPN must bend to the NFL's will. At the moment, there are multiple sellers of premium college football. That could change the next time around with a College Football Association-type agreement that allows leagues to sell as a bloc, or a few leagues could continue to move ahead on their own by swallowing schools and fan bases from other leagues to improve their aggregate consumer base."

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college...z2XHUpRyS1

In terms of realignment, since Kansas is the topic of this conversation now, where is all the talk of Kansas possibly going should the Big 12 break down further? The Big Ten. The Big Ten has it's own tier 3 Network. Guess what ESPN just bought up? Some of Kansas's rights. ESPN just made it difficult for the Big Ten to ever get Kansas should realignment be alive and well as SI would like to say.

By difficult I mean much more expensive to buy up the rights so Kansas can be brought into the fold.

(06-25-2013 09:18 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  In terms of realignment, since Kansas is the topic of this conversation now, where is all the talk of Kansas possibly going should the Big 12 break down further? The Big Ten. The Big Ten has it's own tier 3 Network. Guess what ESPN just bought up? Some of Kansas's rights. ESPN just made it difficult for the Big Ten to ever get Kansas should realignment be alive and well as SI would like to say.

By difficult I mean much more expensive to buy up the rights so Kansas can be brought into the fold.

IMO Kansas and Texas are now more definitively in the ESPN fold. So they would move to an ESPN conference. If I'm not mistaken, and I could be since I'm trusting memory, Oklahoma's tier 3 package is with Comcast. But I don't think their package is so strong that it couldn't be bought out. They front most of the expenses and so net around 3 million a year out of the 7 reported.

You might, assuming their is a dissolution, see Texas as a hybrid, Baylor and West Virginia to the ACC and Oklahoma and Kansas to the SEC. Then if the PAC truly wants an entry into the central time zone they have 4 states and 4 state schools with which to acquire it. Heck if they were both willing to go to 18 they could pull it off together.

(06-25-2013 09:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-25-2013 09:18 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  In terms of realignment, since Kansas is the topic of this conversation now, where is all the talk of Kansas possibly going should the Big 12 break down further? The Big Ten. The Big Ten has it's own tier 3 Network. Guess what ESPN just bought up? Some of Kansas's rights. ESPN just made it difficult for the Big Ten to ever get Kansas should realignment be alive and well as SI would like to say.

By difficult I mean much more expensive to buy up the rights so Kansas can be brought into the fold.

IMO Kansas and Texas are now more definitively in the ESPN fold. So they would move to an ESPN conference. If I'm not mistaken, and I could be since I'm trusting memory, Oklahoma's tier 3 package is with Comcast. But I don't think their package is so strong that it couldn't be bought out. They front most of the expenses and so net around 3 million a year out of the 7 reported.

You might, assuming their is a dissolution, see Texas as a hybrid, Baylor and West Virginia to the ACC and Oklahoma and Kansas to the SEC. Then if the PAC truly wants an entry into the central time zone they have 4 states and 4 state schools with which to acquire it. Heck if they were both willing to go to 18 they could pull it off together.

I can actually see KU being in the SEC someday. UK v. KU would be epic in basketball and Mizzou v. KU would have some kick to it, given their experience in the Big XII, and Mizzou's departure.

I'm still not sold on Baylor to the ACC, though. I think that we would just stay at 14 and take Texas and ND as partials. I could see WVU, and I would be alright with it, but I don't think that would fly in VA, and it definitely wouldn't fly in NC. I realize that 8 Big XII schools need to want to leave for the conference GOR to be broken, but I'm willing to wait, and I bet the ACC is too.

I'm going to hold the contrarian view. ESPN has one property of large value at risk of escaping them. The Big 10.

I think the Big XII and ACC GOR along with third tier Texas and Kansas deals are hedges against their best guesses of Big 10 moves to gain leverage in the Big 10 negotiation.

(06-25-2013 10:05 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(06-25-2013 09:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-25-2013 09:18 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  In terms of realignment, since Kansas is the topic of this conversation now, where is all the talk of Kansas possibly going should the Big 12 break down further? The Big Ten. The Big Ten has it's own tier 3 Network. Guess what ESPN just bought up? Some of Kansas's rights. ESPN just made it difficult for the Big Ten to ever get Kansas should realignment be alive and well as SI would like to say.

By difficult I mean much more expensive to buy up the rights so Kansas can be brought into the fold.

IMO Kansas and Texas are now more definitively in the ESPN fold. So they would move to an ESPN conference. If I'm not mistaken, and I could be since I'm trusting memory, Oklahoma's tier 3 package is with Comcast. But I don't think their package is so strong that it couldn't be bought out. They front most of the expenses and so net around 3 million a year out of the 7 reported.

You might, assuming their is a dissolution, see Texas as a hybrid, Baylor and West Virginia to the ACC and Oklahoma and Kansas to the SEC. Then if the PAC truly wants an entry into the central time zone they have 4 states and 4 state schools with which to acquire it. Heck if they were both willing to go to 18 they could pull it off together.

I can actually see KU being in the SEC someday. UK v. KU would be epic in basketball and Mizzou v. KU would have some kick to it, given their experience in the Big XII, and Mizzou's departure.

I'm still not sold on Baylor to the ACC, though. I think that we would just stay at 14 and take Texas and ND as partials. I could see WVU, and I would be alright with it, but I don't think that would fly in VA, and it definitely wouldn't fly in NC. I realize that 8 Big XII schools need to want to leave for the conference GOR to be broken, but I'm willing to wait, and I bet the ACC is too.

Wouldn't have to wait if Larry Scott helped out here.

Not so sure if this goes so far as to assure Kansas to the SEC should a break up happen but it certainly would be a nice short term investment by ESPN to buy these rights and then to at some point in the near or not so near future resell those rights at a handsome profit.

Playing the market

(06-25-2013 10:17 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I'm going to hold the contrarian view. ESPN has one property of large value at risk of escaping them. The Big 10.

I think the Big XII and ACC GOR along with third tier Texas and Kansas deals are hedges against their best guesses of Big 10 moves to gain leverage in the Big 10 negotiation.

I don't find that view to be contrarian at all. I think that's exactly what they are doing. But at some point ESPN and FOX are going to want to maximize the value of their products in the Big 12 by having them in another venue. When that time comes whether now or in 12 years who holds those third tier rights, and for how long those rights are under contract, will definitely contribute to which teams go where.

(06-25-2013 10:36 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-25-2013 10:17 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I'm going to hold the contrarian view. ESPN has one property of large value at risk of escaping them. The Big 10.

I think the Big XII and ACC GOR along with third tier Texas and Kansas deals are hedges against their best guesses of Big 10 moves to gain leverage in the Big 10 negotiation.

I don't find that view to be contrarian at all. I think that's exactly what they are doing. But at some point ESPN and FOX are going to want to maximize the value of their products in the Big 12 by having them in another venue. When that time comes whether now or in 12 years who holds those third tier rights, and for how long those rights are under contract, will definitely contribute to which teams go where.

Or they'll want to do so with the existing framework or they'll want to maximize it by fracturing another league instead. It's impossible to predict this far out. The entire delivery methodology could change.

I know a lot of people's ideal scenarios involve either the ACC or Big 12 dying but honestly it looks like we are both going to be stable in the next few years at least if not longer. As long as one or two companies will pay up for either one the two will likely be solid.

(06-25-2013 10:30 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Not so sure if this goes so far as to assure Kansas to the SEC should a break up happen but it certainly would be a nice short term investment by ESPN to buy these rights and then to at some point in the near or not so near future resell those rights at a handsome profit.

Playing the market

Another way of looking at this is that ESPN is sewing up top football and basketball talent. I think they will maximize the brands by putting the contracted football talent in the ACC and the basketball talent in the SEC where possible. Face it, the best football for almost the last whole decade has been played in the SEC as a whole. The addition of Syracuse, Pitt, and Notre Dame will just further enhance the ACC's basketball chops and arguably make them the preeminent basketball conference in the nation. Between the two of them they already are deep in baseball. I'd say if competition comes from FOX and the Big 10 is lost to ESPN they have positioned themselves well. They aren't going to lose the college football market by carrying the SEC, ACC, top brands from the Big 12, and part ownership in the PAC.

(06-25-2013 10:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-25-2013 10:30 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Not so sure if this goes so far as to assure Kansas to the SEC should a break up happen but it certainly would be a nice short term investment by ESPN to buy these rights and then to at some point in the near or not so near future resell those rights at a handsome profit.

Playing the market

Another way of looking at this is that ESPN is sewing up top football and basketball talent. I think they will maximize the brands by putting the contracted football talent in the ACC and the basketball talent in the SEC where possible. Face it, the best football for almost the last whole decade has been played in the SEC as a whole. The addition of Syracuse, Pitt, and Notre Dame will just further enhance the ACC's basketball chops and arguably make them the preeminent basketball conference in the nation. Between the two of them they already are deep in baseball. I'd say if competition comes from FOX and the Big 10 is lost to ESPN they have positioned themselves well. They aren't going to lose the college football market by carrying the SEC, ACC, top brands from the Big 12, and part ownership in the PAC.

It's erroneous to say that ESPN has part ownership in the PAC. Whereas FOX is a part owner in the Big10 network, Comcast was a part owner of the defunct Mountain network, and ESPN Plus owns and operates the SEC network, the PAC Networks are fully independent. Currently, the PAC sells a slightly larger block of content to ESPN than Fox, but the PAC is in no way obliged to provide either with content in perpetuity and could distribute any additional gained content acquired through expansion as they choose (exception being the CCG until the current contract expires). Due to existing relationships with FOX and ESPN as well as independent third tier distribution through the PAC networks, the PAC does have the ability to accommodate existing contracts from schools contracted through both ESPN and FOX as well as schools without existing independent third tier contracts. Essentially the PAC is the only conference other than the BigXii that could easily accommodate existing third tier contracts for Texas (ESPN), Kansas (ESPN), and Oklahoma (FOX). Just something to keep in mind.

(06-25-2013 08:19 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  "So how will conferences and schools respond to this? The most likely answer is further consolidation. The NFL commands massive prices because it is the only seller of premium professional football. Even ESPN must bend to the NFL's will. At the moment, there are multiple sellers of premium college football. That could change the next time around with a College Football Association-type agreement that allows leagues to sell as a bloc, or a few leagues could continue to move ahead on their own by swallowing schools and fan bases from other leagues to improve their aggregate consumer base."

What I bolded is an under-looked possibility. Conferences don't have to swell to 20-plus schools to create scarcity and get more leverage. They can just bundle their TV rights and remain separate entities.

Also, from the same article, this:

Quote:ESPN wouldn't do this unless the cable model begins circling the drain. Companies must use caution when building new business at the expense of their primary business. But if deals like this Kansas one are a hit and ESPN executives -- who have been better than their competitors at predicting upcoming consumer whims -- decide the future will be piped through a router and not a cable box, then they have the infrastructure in place to become their own distributor.

ESPN is building infrastructure and content inventory for a post-cable distribution model. ESPN isn't going to let itself go the way of the dinosaurs when cable's popularity goes down the drain.

I agree with Wedge.

The long-term deals are a hedge.

No matter the delivery system there is going to be value in the rights of the top leagues. As I've mentioned before, the projection is by 2016 that most TV's (I've heard 3/5ths thrown around) will have the capability to connect to the internet and use apps. The long-term deals means they are holding rights PAST the point of critical mass. With the exception of the Big 10 deal all their college rights extend nearly a decade past that point or longer. So they will shape the first decade of the model.

If the model becomes like what we see with UFC, then they hold the needed rights to put premier games on PPV with lesser games on "free" tv. If the model is app based delivery with viewer targeted interactive ads they've got nearly a decade to perfect it.

(06-25-2013 10:36 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-25-2013 10:17 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I'm going to hold the contrarian view. ESPN has one property of large value at risk of escaping them. The Big 10.

I think the Big XII and ACC GOR along with third tier Texas and Kansas deals are hedges against their best guesses of Big 10 moves to gain leverage in the Big 10 negotiation.

I don't find that view to be contrarian at all. I think that's exactly what they are doing. But at some point ESPN and FOX are going to want to maximize the value of their products in the Big 12 by having them in another venue. When that time comes whether now or in 12 years who holds those third tier rights, and for how long those rights are under contract, will definitely contribute to which teams go where.

I think there is another HUGE factor here.

If I am sitting in Delany's chair, who do I want to sign with for 2017 and beyond?

I think the answer to the question is very simple.

Fox.

What does Fox offer that I think the answer is simple?

An over-the-air coast-to-coast network. Currently SEC via CBS appears on essentially every CBS affiliate at 3:30 Eastern. Notre Dame home games appear on essentially every NBC affiliate. The Big Ten has regional coverage split with the ACC, Big XII and Pac-12. ESPN offsets that with their use of ESPN and ESPN2 to carry the games not featured in your ABC region.

Fox can give the Big 10 the same thing Notre Dame and the SEC have.

If Fox gets the top tier, the Big 10 will be in the starring role on Fox Sports 1 and 2.

ESPN would then be shut out of a group of 14 or 16 colleges that have a HUGE TV following, have huge home crowds, and is a major player in basketball as well.

ESPN needs the Big 10 to be serious about going to 16 and use their leverage to stay in the game.

(06-25-2013 11:34 PM)Wedge Wrote:  ESPN is building infrastructure and content inventory for a post-cable distribution model. ESPN isn't going to let itself go the way of the dinosaurs when cable's popularity goes down the drain.

Yes they are. ESPN has been an integral middleman in over the air/cable/satellite distribution and they are looking to be pretty strongly positioned for the digital distribution era. They aren't alone though as web-based distribution is much more of a free for all than the tightly regulated broadcast/cable/satellite industry. Any school/conference with an existing digital distribution platform and strong, continuous collaboration with corporate partners in the fields of media production, media distribution, web technology, and hardware/software design (including gaming platforms and products) is going to have an advantage.

(06-25-2013 11:34 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-25-2013 08:19 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  "So how will conferences and schools respond to this? The most likely answer is further consolidation. The NFL commands massive prices because it is the only seller of premium professional football. Even ESPN must bend to the NFL's will. At the moment, there are multiple sellers of premium college football. That could change the next time around with a College Football Association-type agreement that allows leagues to sell as a bloc, or a few leagues could continue to move ahead on their own by swallowing schools and fan bases from other leagues to improve their aggregate consumer base."

What I bolded is an under-looked possibility. Conferences don't have to swell to 20-plus schools to create scarcity and get more leverage. They can just bundle their TV rights and remain separate entities.

Also, from the same article, this:

Quote:ESPN wouldn't do this unless the cable model begins circling the drain. Companies must use caution when building new business at the expense of their primary business. But if deals like this Kansas one are a hit and ESPN executives -- who have been better than their competitors at predicting upcoming consumer whims -- decide the future will be piped through a router and not a cable box, then they have the infrastructure in place to become their own distributor.

ESPN is building infrastructure and content inventory for a post-cable distribution model. ESPN isn't going to let itself go the way of the dinosaurs when cable's popularity goes down the drain.

Agree here. Consolidation may not necessarily be synonymous with raiding going forward.

(06-26-2013 12:43 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(06-25-2013 10:36 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-25-2013 10:17 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I'm going to hold the contrarian view. ESPN has one property of large value at risk of escaping them. The Big 10.

I think the Big XII and ACC GOR along with third tier Texas and Kansas deals are hedges against their best guesses of Big 10 moves to gain leverage in the Big 10 negotiation.

I don't find that view to be contrarian at all. I think that's exactly what they are doing. But at some point ESPN and FOX are going to want to maximize the value of their products in the Big 12 by having them in another venue. When that time comes whether now or in 12 years who holds those third tier rights, and for how long those rights are under contract, will definitely contribute to which teams go where.

I think there is another HUGE factor here.

If I am sitting in Delany's chair, who do I want to sign with for 2017 and beyond?

I think the answer to the question is very simple.

Fox.

What does Fox offer that I think the answer is simple?

An over-the-air coast-to-coast network. Currently SEC via CBS appears on essentially every CBS affiliate at 3:30 Eastern. Notre Dame home games appear on essentially every NBC affiliate. The Big Ten has regional coverage split with the ACC, Big XII and Pac-12. ESPN offsets that with their use of ESPN and ESPN2 to carry the games not featured in your ABC region.

Fox can give the Big 10 the same thing Notre Dame and the SEC have.

If Fox gets the top tier, the Big 10 will be in the starring role on Fox Sports 1 and 2.

ESPN would then be shut out of a group of 14 or 16 colleges that have a HUGE TV following, have huge home crowds, and is a major player in basketball as well.

ESPN needs the Big 10 to be serious about going to 16 and use their leverage to stay in the game.

The Big 10's games are all national now. The ABC games are mirrored on ESPN in the rest of the country. The ESPN games are mirrored on ESPN2 in the rest of the country. The current administration is trying to shrink over the air TV (TV lost channels 70-83, then 51-69, now they are trying to shrink them into the 30s and the poor quality for digital VHF channels-while auctioning the spectrum off to favored wireless providers-AT&T and Verizon need not apply). The thinking seems to be that over the air TV is a dinosaur.

(06-25-2013 09:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-25-2013 09:18 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  In terms of realignment, since Kansas is the topic of this conversation now, where is all the talk of Kansas possibly going should the Big 12 break down further? The Big Ten. The Big Ten has it's own tier 3 Network. Guess what ESPN just bought up? Some of Kansas's rights. ESPN just made it difficult for the Big Ten to ever get Kansas should realignment be alive and well as SI would like to say.

By difficult I mean much more expensive to buy up the rights so Kansas can be brought into the fold.

IMO Kansas and Texas are now more definitively in the ESPN fold. So they would move to an ESPN conference. If I'm not mistaken, and I could be since I'm trusting memory, Oklahoma's tier 3 package is with Comcast. But I don't think their package is so strong that it couldn't be bought out. They front most of the expenses and so net around 3 million a year out of the 7 reported.

You might, assuming their is a dissolution, see Texas as a hybrid, Baylor and West Virginia to the ACC and Oklahoma and Kansas to the SEC. Then if the PAC truly wants an entry into the central time zone they have 4 states and 4 state schools with which to acquire it. Heck if they were both willing to go to 18 they could pull it off together.

IIRC Oklahoma's package is with Fox, and Fox is paying all of the expenses.