GoNolzOhio
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RE: When will ND comfirm more future rotation games?
(09-16-2013 12:35 PM)TerryD Wrote: (09-16-2013 07:42 AM)GoNolzOhio Wrote: (09-13-2013 10:24 PM)TerryD Wrote: (09-13-2013 08:14 AM)GoNolzOhio Wrote: (09-12-2013 10:56 PM)ohio1317 Wrote: I think way, way too much is being made of a new division. The order of likelihood of events with this in my opinion is.
1. No major changes, but compromises to the power schools to get a lot of what they want.
2. Division 1-A (FBS) splits from the rest of division 1 for governance purposes. It might be wider than that, but if it is, it will also include the Big East and maybe some other schools.
3. A full split of the power schools (definitely adding in Notre Dame possibly adding BYU and a few others), probably still within the NCAA.
4. A division split that brings the 5 power conferences, Notre Dame, and the Mountain West/American.
Of the four, only #3 (the one I think is 2nd to least likely), might effect Notre Dame independence and I think even there, they'd still be much more likely to keep it than lose it.
Let's say, the power 5 conferences split into a new division to make their own rules. That doesn't mean the bowls/CFP/games are actually altered all that much. In much the same way we have FBS vs. FCS games now, we would probably continue a mixture, but to a larger extent then. They aren't likely to fundamentally alter the CFP given it has a 12 year deal they just signed and that would require a big buyout to the Group of 5 who would fight tooth and nail to stay part of the system. They also probably wouldn't change the regular season much given all the existing schedule agreements and everyone's desire for 7 home games. I think 2-3 games against current FCS schools would still be allowed even with a separation. In short, for purposes beyond governance rules, even with a formal split along power conference/non-power conferences, I doubt we see much change.
If we assume that the power conferences have really changed their mind quickly though and want away from the Group of 5 and are willing to do pay the fees associated with that, things start to get more interesting. Then, away from the Group of 5, you might get more look at an 8 team playoff (although I don't see it at this point), but it would probably be along classical lines. You could have Big Ten vs. PAC-12 as a first round in the Rose Bowl, the SEC hosting someone in the Sugar, ACC in the Orange, and Big 12 in the Sugar or possibly back to the Fiesta or Cotton. Even then though, I think you'd have room for independents to fill in one of the at large spots.
I think the only way you get to the point Notre Dame must join a conference if you essentially have to merge into one giant conference made up of several divisions and sub-divisions (probably called conferences and divisions) before it would even be possible in the short term. That requires several leaps from the point we are at though and given how slow everything generally moves in college football, I'd say that's still a ways off. It might happen someday, but when we just had the Big Ten putting forth a plus one over a 4 team playoff a year ago, when we just had the Group of 5 sign the CFP, with no major players wanting independents eliminated in principle, etc, I see no reason to think we are anywhere close to the point Notre Dame is forced into that position.
On the issue of the new division: I first came to the conclusion that it is inevitable a few years back when I was working out at a gym here in Cleveland, and ran into a guy who played linebacker at Division III power Mount Union who was about my size (5'10", 200 lbs), and lifed about what I lift. I compared this information to what I knew of the linebackers at FSU when I was there; young men who were gargantuan and moved faster than anyone, at any position, at any school, I saw in the football conference my high school is in in the entire 4 years I spent in high school. For me, this was visual representation that the breath of administration the NCAA is attempting is just not possible, and will become less possible as the money at the top gets bigger. Think about it. How can the NCAA even begin to write rules that cover the gamut from Ohio State/Texas/Alabama, on down to Mount Union/John Carroll/Baldwin Wallace? Have you been to a D-III game? I went to a John Carroll game once just for sh*ts and giggles. There might have been 500 people watching the game. 500! There's 100,000 at an Ohio State game. I paid $5 for my seat. I just went to the FSU-Pitt game and paid $280 for 2 seats. That gap is Grand Canyon in size, only to get bigger. I don't know how its going to happen, but the split is going to happen. Even if the Division I powers wanted to stop it, I don't think they could.
I kind of take a similar position with regard to ND: I'm not sure how or when its going to happen, but it will happen. Name me another team at any semi-professional or professional level anywhere in the world that operates with the independent status ND does. For me, that fact alone means the Irish will succomb to the pressure to join a conference at some point. Their independence is a historical artifact, not proof of their unique nature, as some might argue.
Your first bolded sentence directly contradicts your second bolded sentence.
Its like has been said about treason: its just a matter of dates. I.E., from the perspective of a couple decades down the line, they won't be contridictory.
Let me reiterate at this point that I have no issues with ND's partial membership status. I think it was a fair deal, and as I said before, the ACC got as much out of ND as they were willing to give anyone. A corollary of my feeling there is that it wouldn't bother me if my prediction turns out to be false; if this arrangement is as much is the Irish give up to anyone, then I am fine with that.
Having said that, permit me to say that I think the Irish administration and its fan base holding on to independence does you no favors. Belief in that first bolded statement veers dangerously close to a holier-than-thou attitude that, were I in a decision making position in South Bend, I would do everything in my power to extinguish by pushing for full conference affiliation.
Part of goal setting, in my opinion, is setting up small step, reachable goals on one's way to whatever ultimate goal one has. When Jimbo Fisher first took over at FSU, he indicated that the first goal you have to have in the ACC is to win your division. Then you work towards winning the conference, then you work towards a national title. These small steps do not hurt, they help. They help focus the organization.
ND independence, which creates only one concrete, concise goal; a national title, does not help reach that goal. It makes it more difficult. This is why I suggest ND joins as a full-time member, and then Kelly says, "the first goal were going to have is to win the division." Its very pedestrian, but it works.
One man's opinion.
ND has never operated with that mindset for 126 seasons and really never wants to.
It has always been National Championship or bust at ND.
Lately, it has included a BCS bowl bids as a goal if no national championship.
ND coaches, players , alumni and fans are not interested in conference championships in football, let alone division titles.
They think those are not goals worth having and such titles are of very little value.
This is a different mindset than most places, but that doesn't mean it is not the way it is at ND.
Go on ND message boards and ask them. They will tell you.
I'm a Midwesterner who went to FSU. Not only would I not argue with your assessment of ND fans/administration/alumni, I would agree with it 100%.
Just to reiterate, my point is two-fold; A)you can't hold out forever, and more importantly, B)the attitude doesn't help, it hurts.
But, I have no problem with the deal that was struck between the ACC and ND. Some road trips to South Bend for contests in basketball, football, and baseball are in my future.
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