(06-14-2015 09:29 AM)nzmorange Wrote: (06-13-2015 01:21 PM)omniorange Wrote: smh at the notion that you know anything about TV contracts or timing of negotiations.
No way, no how does the B12 get their last contract if negotiated at the same time that the ACC contract was in 2011 with their current make-up.
Cheers,
Neil
Unlike you, I know the definition of the phrase "fair market value." Something is worth what someone will pay for it. The idea that, fraud aside, any party as sophisticated as FOX overpaid for any of this content was cooked up by nBE fans to explain market forces that they don't fully understand in order to justify the nBE getting a $20+ mm/yr/school contract and was apparently bought by you.
"No way, no how does the B12 get their last contract if negotiated at the same time that the ACC contract was in 2011 with their current make-up."
Once again, you do realize that A) *all* these contracts get renegotiated in the event of material changes to conference membership* and B) the B12's contract went up at that renegotiation, right?
Even if the B12's 2010 lineup was worth more than the B12's 2015 lineup, the payout would have been adjusted when after all the changes.
That said, very clearly the market was inefficient in a way that favored FOX (and might still favor FOX) and/or the new lineup is more valuable because the media deal actually increased when they renegotiated.
But no, feel free to throw around your obviously unsubstantiated opinion as a statement of fact, and feel free to include a healthy dosage of a laughably unearned air of superiority (like usual).
*Hence the "key members" provision of the AAC contract, the SEC having the leverage to renegotiate for a network, the ACC renegotiating from $13 mm to $17 mm with the SU + Pitt add and from $17 mm to $20 mm with the UL + ND add, and the B12 renegotiating shortly after the WVU + TCU add.
As usual, you miss the point. The "free market" was different at the points in time in which the two contracts were negotiated which greatly influenced "market value". When the ACC tv contract was negotiated, ESPN and FOX were competing for it against each other.
You do know it's the networks involved that have the ultimate say as to whether or not the contract will be renegotiated due to membership changes,right? Which is why most conferences have waited until the end of a tv contract period to add teams in the past.
When the ACC added Miami and VT, it was at the end of their TV contract cycle of that period. When the B1G added Nebraska, there was no increase in their national TV contract. They simply recouped the add by getting the $$$ for the championship game. When they recently added Rutgers and Maryland, they didn't get an increase for their network TV contract, they are paying for it through increases in the BTN.
The PAC added Colorado and Utah at the end of their TV contract as well.
When the B12 started to fall apart, they still had four years on their existing contract with ESPN. Prior to falling apart the B12 had already taken renegotiated their secondary rights deal with FSN/FOX. There was no renegotiation for that deal. Why do you think ESPN was willing to renegotiate with four years still remaining?
http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journ...ig-12.aspx
Reasons number one and two are explained in the above link. The other reason was that ESPN didn't want to risk the B12 surviving and then four years later losing the entire package to FOX who was willing to keep the secondary contract as is. ESPN had no concerns about any of that with the ACC since they were already locked into a long-term deal, no risk of keeping Comcast/NBC out of the picture, and no LHN to keep afloat. All they had to do was keep the ACC competitive with the B12 and they could say when the TV contracts come up for renegotiation in 2025, "We did what we could. We kept you at the same level as B12."
Now, back to my original question. Do you still truly think the 10 team B12 without even a championship game is worth the same as the 14 team ACC if both went on the open market tomorrow?
Here is what the last three years data shows, and networks aren't idiots, ESPN had to realize this as well.
B12
7 conference games have rated a 3.0 or higher in the past three years.
3 OOC games have rated a 3.0 or higher in the past three years.
Of the 7 conference games that have rated 3.0 or higher
0 were above a 5.0
1 was between 4.5-4.9
1 was between 4.0-4.4
1 was between 3.5-3.9
4 were between 3.0-3.4
Of the 3 OOC games that have rated 3.0 or higher
1 was between 5.0-5.4 (ND vs OU)
1 was between 4.0-.4.4
1 was between 3.5-3.9
ACC
12 conference games have rated over 3.0 or higher
1 was between 6.0-6.4
2 were between 5.0-5.4
1 was between 4.5-4.9
2 were between 3.5-3.9
6 were between 3.0-3.4
7 OOC games have rated over 3.0 or higher
1 was between 7.5-7.9 (ND vs FSU)
1 was between 5.0-5.4
1 was between 4.5-4.9
2 were between 3.5-3.9
2 were between 3.0-3.4
(and yes JRsec, I know the above data pales in comparison with the mighty SEC numbers, but we are not discussing a comparison with them).
Now try and project out what future trends will be, which is what tv networks need to do.
From 2015-2022 the B12 has in place already a total 26 OOC games either at home or at a neutral site that might be attractive to TV (not that all will likely get a 3.0 or higher rating).
Baylor has 1 - against Duke
ISU has 4 - all against Iowa
Kansas has none
K-State has 1 - against Miss. State
OU has 2 - against Ohio State and Nebraska
Okla State has 2 - against Pitt and Boise
TCU has 2 - against Arkansas and Ohio State
Texas has 5 - against ND, Maryland, USC, LSU and Ohio State
TTU has 2 - against Arizona and Arizona State
WVU has 7 - against Maryland (twice), Mizzou, BYU, VT (twice) and Tenn
The ACC has 55, more than twice as many. Obviously helped by an 8 game schedule, the ND tie-in, and of course the regular SEC match-ups of Fla-FSU, South Carolina-Clemson, and UGa-GT. But all of these factors were known going into the last ACC renegotiations.
(aside, btw, I didn't even include the Kentucky-Louisville series in the total above).
As I stated above, the "free market" system is very dependent upon times and circumstances.
Cheers,
Neil