(04-27-2018 11:52 AM)Wedge Wrote: (04-27-2018 10:14 AM)Big Frog II Wrote: What are you all going to do with your spare time when the Big 12 signs a TV extension in a few years?
Easy question. We'll see lots of arguments that GORs are unenforceable, and schools can move whenever they want, and the Big Ten is going to add 10 new members and give each of them $100 jillybillywillion dollars a year.
In fairness the Big 12 refused to extend it's GOR last year. Their TV contract is up in 2024. And those two factors have led to the speculation about their potential demise. Boren pushing for additions that did not come also added to this. The lineup of G5 schools to reject last year didn't help either.
But with all of that said and done. Nothing precludes Texas and Oklahoma from flirting around to find out after NDA's how much money the other conferences are really making and would offer and having found out that information they will likely sign an extension of the Big 12 GOR for another 10 years around 2022 or 3.
I'm sure they are going to want to know what impact streaming has on the other conference networks prior to surrendering their own T3 deals inclusive of the LHN. There is so much up in the air right now that their ability to discover what other conferences are making, losing, or planning to do because of the change in delivery models and potential change in pay models is best found out through flirtations. So it's easy to understand why they didn't extend the GOR last year. If they had nobody would share NDA covered information with them.
If there is evidence of a stronger undermining of conference linear networks than what is reported publicly then waiting 10 years for pressure to build on other parties that would be hurt by this (here's looking at the PAC self owned network and the potential of the ACCN) it could affect the long term viability of the Big 12 in very positive ways.
So I see less and less reason for the Big 12 to want to act definitively now and more reasons for them to maintain status quo.
The only wild card on the table right now with regards to potential realignment are the networks who might be looking to lock down the rights of programs they desire prior to the entry of new competitors in the sports rights business. But from a conference perspective I see no incentive for any of them to make moves. If anything some buyers remorse seems to be deepening. Without the market model to fall back upon just how good were the additions of Rutgers and Missouri, or for that matter B.C. or Pitt?
The next round of realignment when it occurs will likely be in response to the new delivery and pay paradigms.