(05-17-2018 10:20 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 08:18 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 08:05 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I see a new conference being formed that takes the best schools from the Big 12 and Pac 12 and merges them into a new 12-team conference.

This is who will make the cut: Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Utah, Arizona in the east and Oregon, Washington, UCLA, USC, Cal, and Stanford in the west.

Yes, Arizona State, Washington State, Oregon State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech miss the cut.

PAC 12 goes to PAC 16.
Arizona State
Washington State
Oregon State
TCU
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
San Diego State
Fresno State
Hawaii
Boise State
BYU
New Mexico
Colorado State
Kansas State
Iowa State

Baylor goes to the MWC and West Virginia goes back to the AAC.

If this 12-school conference occurred:

West: Washington, Oregon, California, Stanford, USC, UCLA
East: Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas

Then I could see this:

West: Washington St, Oregon St, San Diego St, Boise St, Arizona St, BYU, Colorado St
East: Houston, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, Kansas St, Iowa St

Then finally this:

Hawaii, Fresno St, San Jose St, Nevada, UNLV, Utah St, Wyoming, Air Force, New Mexico, UTEP

I would think people do not want to touch Baylor with a 10 foot pole for some time. They are still not out of hotwater yet which would be why no other P5 conferences want them. I put Nevada, new Mexico and Hawaii in because they are flagship schools that the rest of the PAC schools would want to associate with.

A PAC-12 & Big 12 merger in some form would be the way to go. Lots of things would needed to be worked out but a 20 team league for television purposes would be pretty good, and both would keep their identity for the most part.

(05-17-2018 11:58 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 11:21 AM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 10:29 AM)orangefan Wrote:  I would not read this as suggesting the P12 is about to break up. It's more likely saying that the P12 needs to do something dramatic to keep up with the Joneses (i.e., the B1G and the SEC). I continue to believe that they are likely to be the predators, with the B12 as their targets. The P12 and B12 have TV contracts coming up in the same window (2024 +/-). The B12 has its own well documented fractures. Bringing in some Central Time Zone, name brand, and big population state (i.e., Texas) schools would solve a lot of problems for the P12. They've known this for a long time, as evidenced by their effort to go to 16 back in the 2010-2011 time frame.

I agree, and by bringing in 4 new schools they can open up their contract for a renegotiation to iron out issues like the Truck race embarrassment.

Texas, Tech, OU and KU as the targets to get to 16.

If the Pac-12 could pull that off (which I doubt), it would fix a great many of their problems... AND help to stabilize college football as a whole, IMO.

The Pac-12 pulling that off is much more likely than the Pac-12 breaking up.

(05-17-2018 01:02 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 11:58 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 11:21 AM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 10:29 AM)orangefan Wrote:  I would not read this as suggesting the P12 is about to break up. It's more likely saying that the P12 needs to do something dramatic to keep up with the Joneses (i.e., the B1G and the SEC). I continue to believe that they are likely to be the predators, with the B12 as their targets. The P12 and B12 have TV contracts coming up in the same window (2024 +/-). The B12 has its own well documented fractures. Bringing in some Central Time Zone, name brand, and big population state (i.e., Texas) schools would solve a lot of problems for the P12. They've known this for a long time, as evidenced by their effort to go to 16 back in the 2010-2011 time frame.

I agree, and by bringing in 4 new schools they can open up their contract for a renegotiation to iron out issues like the Truck race embarrassment.

Texas, Tech, OU and KU as the targets to get to 16.

If the Pac-12 could pull that off (which I doubt), it would fix a great many of their problems... AND help to stabilize college football as a whole, IMO.

The Pac-12 pulling that off is much more likely than the Pac-12 breaking up.

Actually neither is very likely. The PAC is isolated by geography and minor sports travel expense would be a bear. And the PAC doesn't have enough revenue to offer the Big 12 members anything they don't already have. So toss cultural and political differences into the mix and I just don't see it happening.

That said if the prizes of the Big 12 headed to the PAC I agree that it would bring some stability to the conference alignment issues. And having a P4 would open up other possibilities that would probably eliminate the ability of any school to remain aloof from conference membership.

Texas and Notre Dame will be joining the ACC.
The B1G and their partner (PAC) will need 6 teams between them and the SEC will require 2.
The battle between those three conferences for the 9 teams left in the Big 12 is going to be interesting. BTW one team is getting left out.

(05-17-2018 02:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 01:02 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 11:58 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 11:21 AM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 10:29 AM)orangefan Wrote:  I would not read this as suggesting the P12 is about to break up. It's more likely saying that the P12 needs to do something dramatic to keep up with the Joneses (i.e., the B1G and the SEC). I continue to believe that they are likely to be the predators, with the B12 as their targets. The P12 and B12 have TV contracts coming up in the same window (2024 +/-). The B12 has its own well documented fractures. Bringing in some Central Time Zone, name brand, and big population state (i.e., Texas) schools would solve a lot of problems for the P12. They've known this for a long time, as evidenced by their effort to go to 16 back in the 2010-2011 time frame.

I agree, and by bringing in 4 new schools they can open up their contract for a renegotiation to iron out issues like the Truck race embarrassment.

Texas, Tech, OU and KU as the targets to get to 16.

If the Pac-12 could pull that off (which I doubt), it would fix a great many of their problems... AND help to stabilize college football as a whole, IMO.

The Pac-12 pulling that off is much more likely than the Pac-12 breaking up.

Actually neither is very likely. The PAC is isolated by geography and minor sports travel expense would be a bear. And the PAC doesn't have enough revenue to offer the Big 12 members anything they don't already have. So toss cultural and political differences into the mix and I just don't see it happening.

That said if the prizes of the Big 12 headed to the PAC I agree that it would bring some stability to the conference alignment issues. And having a P4 would open up other possibilities that would probably eliminate the ability of any school to remain aloof from conference membership.

Both Slive and Scott said a few years ago that the best G5 schools should not be discounted from the picture. Some of them have a fast growing population like Boise or Houston that should not be counted out.

The Conference of Champions is not going anywhere. I can see the ACC going down before the Pac-12. They don’t have any competition out West, the MWC is no longer a threat and the Big XII is far enough geographically. It’s just a different culture out West, that’s it. And no, the Arizona schools will NOT consider the Big XII. Why leave a good conference in order to be at the mercy of Texas and to some extent Oklahoma? All they have to do is ask Colorado who couldn’t wait to get out of a Texas shadow. If they’re still not convinced, they can call Big Ten newbie Nebraska.

(05-17-2018 03:54 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 02:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 01:02 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 11:58 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 11:21 AM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  I agree, and by bringing in 4 new schools they can open up their contract for a renegotiation to iron out issues like the Truck race embarrassment.

Texas, Tech, OU and KU as the targets to get to 16.

If the Pac-12 could pull that off (which I doubt), it would fix a great many of their problems... AND help to stabilize college football as a whole, IMO.

The Pac-12 pulling that off is much more likely than the Pac-12 breaking up.

Actually neither is very likely. The PAC is isolated by geography and minor sports travel expense would be a bear. And the PAC doesn't have enough revenue to offer the Big 12 members anything they don't already have. So toss cultural and political differences into the mix and I just don't see it happening.

That said if the prizes of the Big 12 headed to the PAC I agree that it would bring some stability to the conference alignment issues. And having a P4 would open up other possibilities that would probably eliminate the ability of any school to remain aloof from conference membership.

Both Slive and Scott said a few years ago that the best G5 schools should not be discounted from the picture. Some of them have a fast growing population like Boise or Houston that should not be counted out.

10 people live in Boise, 10 more move in... Amazing growth percentage. Still only 20 people

(05-17-2018 08:02 PM)Sellular1 Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 03:54 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 02:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 01:02 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 11:58 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  If the Pac-12 could pull that off (which I doubt), it would fix a great many of their problems... AND help to stabilize college football as a whole, IMO.

The Pac-12 pulling that off is much more likely than the Pac-12 breaking up.

Actually neither is very likely. The PAC is isolated by geography and minor sports travel expense would be a bear. And the PAC doesn't have enough revenue to offer the Big 12 members anything they don't already have. So toss cultural and political differences into the mix and I just don't see it happening.

That said if the prizes of the Big 12 headed to the PAC I agree that it would bring some stability to the conference alignment issues. And having a P4 would open up other possibilities that would probably eliminate the ability of any school to remain aloof from conference membership.

Both Slive and Scott said a few years ago that the best G5 schools should not be discounted from the picture. Some of them have a fast growing population like Boise or Houston that should not be counted out.

10 people live in Boise, 10 more move in... Amazing growth percentage. Still only 20 people

The problem with Boise State is not the football team. It has decent basketball and its facilities, at worst, would be at the bottom of the P5. The problem is, it’s not named the University of Idaho and it has the stigma of being a former community college. Boise and Idaho will continue growing but the name “Boise State” will keep them out of any P5 conversations, especially the Pac-12.

(05-17-2018 07:53 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  The Conference of Champions is not going anywhere. I can see the ACC going down before the Pac-12. They don’t have any competition out West, the MWC is no longer a threat and the Big XII is far enough geographically. It’s just a different culture out West, that’s it. And no, the Arizona schools will NOT consider the Big XII. Why leave a good conference in order to be at the mercy of Texas and to some extent Oklahoma? All they have to do is ask Colorado who couldn’t wait to get out of a Texas shadow. If they’re still not convinced, they can call Big Ten newbie Nebraska.

How many times does some dingleberry have to predict the collapse of the ACC, only to be proven wrong again?

If I were the PAC I'd start by firing Larry Scott.

Every school in the P12 is a major research institution, and has at least some selectivity in admission. Boise State has neither of those.

Here is how Boise State stacks up against the 4th most rigorous (UCLA, behind Cal, Stanford and UW ... but in truth the three publics you can throw a blanket over they are so close) and the least rigorous (Arizona State) ... It's a complete joke. They are not even competitive against the bottom five Pac-12 schools in admission difficulty and graduation rates.

Boise State

Bachelor's degree seeking students completing a bachelor's degree
Graduation Rate Within 4 Years 14.9 %
Graduation Rate Within 5 Years 32.3 %
Graduation Rate Within 6 Years 38.5 %

Admission rate 81.7 %

SAT 25th Percentile 75th Percentile
Verbal 460 580
Math 455 570


Arizona State

Bachelor's degree seeking students completing a bachelor's degree
Graduation Rate Within 4 Years 48.9 %
Graduation Rate Within 5 Years 62.6 %
Graduation Rate Within 6 Years 66.7 %

Admission rate 82.5 %

SAT 25th Percentile 75th Percentile
Verbal 500 630
Math 520 650

UCLA

Bachelor's degree seeking students completing a bachelor's degree
Graduation Rate Within 4 Years 73.9 %
Graduation Rate Within 5 Years 89.5 %
Graduation Rate Within 6 Years 91.1 %

Admission rate 18.0 %

SAT 25th Percentile 75th Percentile
Verbal 570 710
Math 590 760

Realistically, the only two to four options (and all of them have question marks) the Pac-12 has other than Big XII schools are:

-Hawaii (distance)
-New Mexico (athletic dept is a mess, small state, poor)

Maybe:
-Nevada (only if they were in Las Vegas)
-Colorado State (CU will be an obstacle)

Not a chance:
-Boise State (academics)
-BYU (unless the school distances itself from the Mormon Church and becomes more secular)
-Any Cal State school (Cal and UCLA will not let them in)
-UNLV (might have a chance, but I don’t see it)
-Utah State (Utah will block them)
-Air Force
-UTEP (small market, no recruiting, far from the rest of Texas)
-New Mexico State (see UTEP, also small, poor state)
-Wyoming (only if by a miracle they grow to 3+ million)

There’s really not a standout like Utah in the MWC to justify expansion.

(05-17-2018 08:23 PM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 07:53 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  The Conference of Champions is not going anywhere. I can see the ACC going down before the Pac-12. They don’t have any competition out West, the MWC is no longer a threat and the Big XII is far enough geographically. It’s just a different culture out West, that’s it. And no, the Arizona schools will NOT consider the Big XII. Why leave a good conference in order to be at the mercy of Texas and to some extent Oklahoma? All they have to do is ask Colorado who couldn’t wait to get out of a Texas shadow. If they’re still not convinced, they can call Big Ten newbie Nebraska.

How many times does some dingleberry have to predict the collapse of the ACC, only to be proven wrong again?

I’m not saying the ACC will collapse. But the chances of the ACC collapsing are greater than those of the Pac-12. Neither of those will happen anytime soon.

Academic and Research requirements eliminate almost every school in the Pacific or Mountain time zones not already in the P12. Colorado State comes closest, then New Mexico. San Diego State perhaps next. UNLV is academically terrible (really terrible), so is Fresno State and Boise State.

Frankly UC Davis (FCS) and UC San Diego (no football and beginning D-I transition in 2020-21), if they decided to jump to FBS would move to the top, with CSU next.

Remember, all 12 Pac-12 schools are Carnegie R1 institutions, 8 are AAU members and the other 4 still do around $400M a year in R&D spending. Even Oklahoma would at the bottom, and Texas would be just be about 5th or 6th on the list if they joined.

I could eventually see San Diego State, if the CSU Charter were loosened to allow them to become an R1 institution, and Colorado State joining. But not anytime in the next decade. To be clear, only Texas or Oklahoma would make a difference in the perception of the conference. OU wont be joining, as they have better option in the B1G and SEC (should they even want to move). And it's hard to see a scenario where the P12 works for Texas. So fixes to the P12 problem are going to have to come with the current line up. And that reality will not change in the next 10-15 years.

Now that you mention Colorado State that gives the B12 an option.

Suppose Arizona State thinks it can do a lot better in the B12. But they are the only school that would consider a B12 move. Who could join as a 12th?

This is where Colorado St. could enter the picture as a possible 12th for the B12. Enables the B12 to get back into the Colorado market without taking Colorado who wants to be in the PAC.

B12 (Arizona St, Colorado St)-Back to 12!
PAC (Hawaii)-Nice for the pacific push.
MWC-Sticks at 10 to split the CFP revenue less ways.

Pac-12 has to get in Tex, Houston is thier only shot.
Hawaii gives them xtra games [at least 5 in FB]

(05-17-2018 07:53 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  The Conference of Champions is not going anywhere...

The All Champions Conference.

(05-17-2018 08:27 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  Realistically, the only two to four options (and all of them have question marks) the Pac-12 has other than Big XII schools are:

-Hawaii (distance)
-New Mexico (athletic dept is a mess, small state, poor)

Maybe:
-Nevada (only if they were in Las Vegas)
-Colorado State (CU will be an obstacle)

Not a chance:
-Boise State (academics)
-BYU (unless the school distances itself from the Mormon Church and becomes more secular)
-Any Cal State school (Cal and UCLA will not let them in)
-UNLV (might have a chance, but I don’t see it)
-Utah State (Utah will block them)
-Air Force
-UTEP (small market, no recruiting, far from the rest of Texas)
-New Mexico State (see UTEP, also small, poor state)
-Wyoming (only if by a miracle they grow to 3+ million)

There’s really not a standout like Utah in the MWC to justify expansion.

Think you nailed it.

There isn't anyone reasonable to send student-athletes to that makes sense.
Unless you are doing a set-up where you have two large divisions that rarely play cross-over games you can't make it work.

It makes far more sense to not seek out competition partners (new members) and instead seek out business partners. A conference you can share overhead costs with and jointly market media rights with and sweeten that by allocating some non-conference slots to the partner league.

Having 100% equity in P12Net makes that more viable and geography diminishes as a concern. You can do a deal like that with ACC just as easily as the oft discussed Big XII or occasionally mentioned Big 10.

The only weak academic school I could possible see the PAC-12 adding would be UNLV. And that chance isn't very high. But of all places, Californians do have a weak spot for Las Vegas.