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Arizona State: Time to go rogue
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SoCalBobcat78 Offline
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Post: #81
RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
(06-16-2018 07:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2018 06:52 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  A ridiculous thread. The conference distributed $371 million to its 12 schools, an increase of 8 percent from the previous year. How does that equate to a failed model?

The Pac-12 struggles competitively? The Conference has led the nation in NCAA Championships in 51 of the last 57 years, with 506 NCAA team titles overall.

What I like about your post: You note that the PAC owns California, a state with 40 million people and a GDP that would make it the 5th biggest economy in the world. That alone is a whale of a market.

You also note that the PAC distributed $30m per school, a healthy total.

Causes for concern: Nobody cares about who wins the NCAA women's volleyball or the NCAA men's scuba diving titles. We care about football and basketball, and the PAC hasn't won even a share of a football title in 14 years, and hasn't won a hoops title in 23 years.

That's bad.

Also, the PAC is does not seem to be very efficiently run. The PAC had revenues last year of $508m but only distributed $371m. That is a whopping $137m in expenses. Where is it all going?

IIRC, commissioner Scott makes almost $5m a year, that is itself an enormous amount. That is more than double what the SEC commissioner makes. Surely Scott isn't doing twice as good a job, is he?

Good points. The inability to win a national championship in basketball or football has been frustrating for the Pac-12. But it has not been due to a lack of talent:

http://pac-12.com/article/2017/06/22/pac...-nba-draft

"The Pac-12’s six first-round selections were the second-most of any conference in the country and tied for the second-most in league history trailing only the 2008 Draft class. Eight additional Pac-12 players were taken in the second round to raise the overall total to 14, equaling the most of any conference in this year’s Draft and eclipsing the previous Pac-12 mark of 12 in 2008.

Over the last five NBA Drafts (2013-17), the Pac-12 has produced 42 picks overall and 23 first-round selections, totals that are second only to the ACC (52, 30)."

As I mentioned in a previous post, Oklahoma has had 22 players drafted into the NFL in the period from 2014-2018. Baker Mayfield is the lone first round selection in the last five years. OU has been the best football program in the Big 12 in that period. UCLA has had 26 players drafted into the NFL in that period, five in the first round.

The point is, the talent is there in the Pac-12. At some point, the conference will win a national championship in basketball or football. I agree that Scott needs to reduce the spending and find a way to get a TV deal with Direct-TV done.
06-16-2018 08:47 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #82
RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
(06-16-2018 07:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2018 06:52 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  A ridiculous thread. The conference distributed $371 million to its 12 schools, an increase of 8 percent from the previous year. How does that equate to a failed model?

The Pac-12 struggles competitively? The Conference has led the nation in NCAA Championships in 51 of the last 57 years, with 506 NCAA team titles overall.

What I like about your post: You note that the PAC owns California, a state with 40 million people and a GDP that would make it the 5th biggest economy in the world. That alone is a whale of a market.

You also note that the PAC distributed $30m per school, a healthy total.

Causes for concern: Nobody cares about who wins the NCAA women's volleyball or the NCAA men's scuba diving titles. We care about football and basketball, and the PAC hasn't won even a share of a football title in 14 years, and hasn't won a hoops title in 23 years.

That's bad.

Also, the PAC is does not seem to be very efficiently run. The PAC had revenues last year of $508m but only distributed $371m. That is a whopping $137m in expenses. Where is it all going?

IIRC, commissioner Scott makes almost $5m a year, that is itself an enormous amount. That is more than double what the SEC commissioner makes. Surely Scott isn't doing twice as good a job, is he?

This is a rare case where SoCalBobcat and I see eye to eye and completely agree.

Actually that the Pac-12 is currently very inefficiently run is the very reason I am optimistic. The B12 is maxed out and being paid for 12 schools, although they have only ten, in an effort to to keep Texas and OU together and keep the conference for adding any low value G5 schools (from the POV of Fox and ESPN ... the ones making the payout) and with a Jerry World CCG. Almost certainly this will not continue after the next contract when OU leaves and the valuation drops (relative to the rest of P5).

I look at the P12 as falling a good $5-6M per school short of what they should be distributing, simply by being more focused and efficient. I am convinced that will happen by the next contract round, either with Larry Scott correcting problems in his HQ and P12N, or from a new commissioner after his ousting. The arrival of the Rams and Raiders stadiums opens up many possibilities for both opening week neutral site games for National TV and better sites for a higher payout CCG, and better Bowl games (already will happen with Las Vegas). A revamping of the P12N to be Football focused and with proper support shows like the BTN and SECN have could drive viewership up dramatically (e.g., signing day is huge on those networks, nonexistent on the P12N). The low hanging fruit is sooner or later going to be harvested and quickly see a rise in revenues. Either under current or new management. All well before 2023 contract negotiations.

I'm long term bullish on the P12, although I see the SEC and B1G pulling away from everyone else. But the P12 should be ahead of the ACC and B12. The Texas-OU value of the B12 will be broken and that will drive that conference down to 5th.
06-16-2018 09:48 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Offline
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Post: #83
RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
(06-16-2018 09:48 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(06-16-2018 07:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2018 06:52 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  A ridiculous thread. The conference distributed $371 million to its 12 schools, an increase of 8 percent from the previous year. How does that equate to a failed model?

The Pac-12 struggles competitively? The Conference has led the nation in NCAA Championships in 51 of the last 57 years, with 506 NCAA team titles overall.

What I like about your post: You note that the PAC owns California, a state with 40 million people and a GDP that would make it the 5th biggest economy in the world. That alone is a whale of a market.

You also note that the PAC distributed $30m per school, a healthy total.

Causes for concern: Nobody cares about who wins the NCAA women's volleyball or the NCAA men's scuba diving titles. We care about football and basketball, and the PAC hasn't won even a share of a football title in 14 years, and hasn't won a hoops title in 23 years.

That's bad.

Also, the PAC is does not seem to be very efficiently run. The PAC had revenues last year of $508m but only distributed $371m. That is a whopping $137m in expenses. Where is it all going?

IIRC, commissioner Scott makes almost $5m a year, that is itself an enormous amount. That is more than double what the SEC commissioner makes. Surely Scott isn't doing twice as good a job, is he?

This is a rare case where SoCalBobcat and I see eye to eye and completely agree.


LOL! Maybe I need to re-evaluate my thoughts on this subject...
06-16-2018 10:16 PM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #84
RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
(06-16-2018 09:48 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I'm long term bullish on the P12 ...

Oh I agree with that. The PAC is clearly right there with the SEC and B1G in terms of rock solid stability. Talk of the demise of the PAC is IMO silly.
06-16-2018 10:36 PM
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michael.stevens.3110 Offline
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Post: #85
Arizona State: Time to go rogue
(06-16-2018 10:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-16-2018 09:48 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I'm long term bullish on the P12 ...

Oh I agree with that. The PAC is clearly right there with the SEC and B1G in terms of rock solid stability. Talk of the demise of the PAC is IMO silly.


PAC is in trouble ... THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA IS IN TROUBLE ...!


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06-17-2018 03:29 AM
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quo vadis Online
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RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
(06-16-2018 08:47 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  The point is, the talent is there in the Pac-12. At some point, the conference will win a national championship in basketball or football. I agree that Scott needs to reduce the spending and find a way to get a TV deal with Direct-TV done.

Just to be clear: When i mentioned the PAC not winning a national title in football or basketball recently and that being "bad", I was talking from a conference pride point of view. I wasn't implying that this is something that actually threatens the stability and viability of the PAC.

Not only does the PAC have strong cultural unity, the PAC is kind of protected from attack by other P5 kind of the same way England was protected from attack from mainland European powers by the English channel - the rocky mountains are a kind of moat, such that the PAC is unique in that its territory doesn't overlap with other power conferences. It has the far west, really, everything west of the Rockies, to itself. That's isn't changing.
(This post was last modified: 06-17-2018 05:15 AM by quo vadis.)
06-17-2018 05:11 AM
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westwolf Offline
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Post: #87
RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
Except for West Va, Texas A&M, Missouri, Maryland and Rutgers, the P5 schools are right where they belong geographically. The Pac 12 can't change geography or time zones. Most of us in the west (Cali excepted) are glad to be separated from the crime, noise, traffic and weather of the eastern half of the country.
06-17-2018 09:38 AM
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ESE84 Offline
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Post: #88
RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
(06-16-2018 10:50 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I'm not. Houston is currently #192 in US News. My USF has also been making great academic progress, we really have been, but we are still #140. It is tough to climb the rankings, everyone else is doing their best as well.

Congratulations on the USF rating. I had no idea.

If you wade through the US News rankings, I think it may support my point. UH (and USF) have approached the level of existing members like Texas Tech and Washington State, so they are not automatic rejections.

The Houston Chronicle has an interesting story today on UH's push to climb conferences and the finances behind that. It reads like Khator and Fertitta intend to get it done.
06-17-2018 09:44 AM
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quo vadis Online
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RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
(06-17-2018 09:38 AM)westwolf Wrote:  Except for West Va, Texas A&M, Missouri, Maryland and Rutgers, the P5 schools are right where they belong geographically. The Pac 12 can't change geography or time zones. Most of us in the west (Cali excepted) are glad to be separated from the crime, noise, traffic and weather of the eastern half of the country.

I'd add a couple to the list, from a strictly geographic perspective:

Colorado and Nebraska ... belong in Big 12

FSU and Miami .... SEC
(This post was last modified: 06-17-2018 09:47 AM by quo vadis.)
06-17-2018 09:46 AM
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Post: #90
RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
I believe after all is said and done no one moves in the 2023-2025 window. I do believe the CFP will expand to 6 or 8.
(This post was last modified: 06-17-2018 01:30 PM by Big Frog II.)
06-17-2018 01:29 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
(06-17-2018 09:46 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-17-2018 09:38 AM)westwolf Wrote:  Except for West Va, Texas A&M, Missouri, Maryland and Rutgers, the P5 schools are right where they belong geographically. The Pac 12 can't change geography or time zones. Most of us in the west (Cali excepted) are glad to be separated from the crime, noise, traffic and weather of the eastern half of the country.

I'd add a couple to the list, from a strictly geographic perspective:

Colorado and Nebraska ... belong in Big 12

FSU and Miami .... SEC

And Louisville
06-17-2018 03:42 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #92
RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
(06-17-2018 09:38 AM)westwolf Wrote:  Except for West Va, Texas A&M, Missouri, Maryland and Rutgers, the P5 schools are right where they belong geographically. The Pac 12 can't change geography or time zones. Most of us in the west (Cali excepted) are glad to be separated from the crime, noise, traffic and weather of the eastern half of the country.

If you are considering Maryland and Rutgers out of place how about Penn State?
06-17-2018 04:37 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
(06-17-2018 01:29 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I believe after all is said and done no one moves in the 2023-2025 window. I do believe the CFP will expand to 6 or 8.

If this is the case then the G5 and Independents place maximum pressure on the CFP system if there are no call ups.

How this could play out is interesting.

1) Give the AAC a contract slot. This is a nice perk for the AAC but also benefits the G4 because they are splitting an access bowl 4 ways instead of 5 and not having compete against the more heavily resourced AAC.

2) Give the G5 a second access slot. Another way to alleviate the pressure put on the system is when expanding the CFP is to give the G5 a second access slot. That would put more drama on the conference championship games of the G5 with the regular season feeling more like a play-in.

3) Give all the G5 conferences a contract bowl. Push the CFP up to 10 bowl games with the Gator, Citrus, Las Vegas and Music City bowl. AAC could be a regular in the Gator and MVC in Las Vegas. The MAC, CUSA and SBC can be placed in the Fiesta, Citrus, Music City, Cotton and Peach if not in the CFP rotation.
06-17-2018 05:16 PM
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Big Frog II Offline
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Post: #94
RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
(06-17-2018 05:16 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(06-17-2018 01:29 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I believe after all is said and done no one moves in the 2023-2025 window. I do believe the CFP will expand to 6 or 8.

If this is the case then the G5 and Independents place maximum pressure on the CFP system if there are no call ups.

How this could play out is interesting.

1) Give the AAC a contract slot. This is a nice perk for the AAC but also benefits the G4 because they are splitting an access bowl 4 ways instead of 5 and not having compete against the more heavily resourced AAC.

2) Give the G5 a second access slot. Another way to alleviate the pressure put on the system is when expanding the CFP is to give the G5 a second access slot. That would put more drama on the conference championship games of the G5 with the regular season feeling more like a play-in.

3) Give all the G5 conferences a contract bowl. Push the CFP up to 10 bowl games with the Gator, Citrus, Las Vegas and Music City bowl. AAC could be a regular in the Gator and MVC in Las Vegas. The MAC, CUSA and SBC can be placed in the Fiesta, Citrus, Music City, Cotton and Peach if not in the CFP rotation.

There is no doubt that it needs to be more fair.
06-17-2018 05:46 PM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
(06-17-2018 05:46 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  
(06-17-2018 05:16 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(06-17-2018 01:29 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I believe after all is said and done no one moves in the 2023-2025 window. I do believe the CFP will expand to 6 or 8.

If this is the case then the G5 and Independents place maximum pressure on the CFP system if there are no call ups.

How this could play out is interesting.

1) Give the AAC a contract slot. This is a nice perk for the AAC but also benefits the G4 because they are splitting an access bowl 4 ways instead of 5 and not having compete against the more heavily resourced AAC.

2) Give the G5 a second access slot. Another way to alleviate the pressure put on the system is when expanding the CFP is to give the G5 a second access slot. That would put more drama on the conference championship games of the G5 with the regular season feeling more like a play-in.

3) Give all the G5 conferences a contract bowl. Push the CFP up to 10 bowl games with the Gator, Citrus, Las Vegas and Music City bowl. AAC could be a regular in the Gator and MVC in Las Vegas. The MAC, CUSA and SBC can be placed in the Fiesta, Citrus, Music City, Cotton and Peach if not in the CFP rotation.

There is no doubt that it needs to be more fair.

It doesn't need to be more fair. It seems to me those suggestions are intended to make it "better for the G5 schools". That's not the same as "more fair". The fact is, the best teams are overwhelmingly in the P5 conferences. And taking slots from them in order to give them to G5 schools seems inherently unfair.

IMO, there won't be any more "moveups" if there is more realignment in the next media contract cycle. The only changes would be schools moving between P5 conferences. And frankly, I don't see any need for that. Any change to the post season is most likely to be permitting conference semifinal games. That would be more "fair" in that the best teams in the country will all have a chance to play their way into the CFP based on how strong they are at the end of the season, much like the NCAA basketball tournament.
06-17-2018 06:01 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #96
RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
(06-17-2018 09:46 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-17-2018 09:38 AM)westwolf Wrote:  Except for West Va, Texas A&M, Missouri, Maryland and Rutgers, the P5 schools are right where they belong geographically. The Pac 12 can't change geography or time zones. Most of us in the west (Cali excepted) are glad to be separated from the crime, noise, traffic and weather of the eastern half of the country.

I'd add a couple to the list, from a strictly geographic perspective:

Colorado and Nebraska ... belong in Big 12

FSU and Miami .... SEC

I disagree with you on Colorado. They did not make a mistake in moving to a Pacific and Mountain time zone conference. Their student body, the makeup of Colorado, is decided Western, much more California presence than Texas, and precious little (in terms of people) from the plains. They are part of the four corners (NM-AZ-CO-UT) and the eastern third of the State is pretty much empty, the main highway traffic runs north south along the front range.

Denver is a hodgepodge of locals, Californians, Great Lakes midwesterners and some Texans, a gateway to the West. But in terms of distance, it is not close to anyone, 7.5 hours from Utah and 8 hours from Nebraska, a bit more to KU driving. This makes it typical of Western schools, in that you have to fly to all your conference mates. The P12 at least has some reasonable pairs in short driving distance (Palo Alto and Berkeley, Westwood and Downtown LA, Tempe and Tucson, Eugene and Corvallis), so it's not much of an issue for CU Basketball road trips.

I think people look at Colorado the State and see it adjacent to Kansas, Nebraska, and part of the Oklahoma panhandle, and think "oh they should fit that." But people forget the eastern third of Colorado, and the Western 2/3rds of Kansas and Nebraska are sparely populated short grass Great Plains, a good 500 mile wide zone of emptiness. That is zone the runs from Canada to Texas dividing the West from the rest of the country. A desert that led Colby (Kansas) to declare itself an oasis. This empty swath is a big reason why Colorado had been looking at joining the Pac-10 since before the Big 12 was formed.

As for your SEC schools. Geography is not the issue, as the southern wing of the ACC overlaps the SEC (South Carolina, Georgia, Florida), and schools fit well in either conference geographically. But if you cite culture, perhaps. This is why Clemson and Florida State have often been mentioned. Miami is a strange fish, a mishmash of Caribbean, Yankee and Southern culture. It's a crossroads city like Austin or Denver.

The one school that is really out of place is West Virginia.

I have no problem with Texas A&M being in the SEC. They wanted to go there when the B12 was formed. They are in Eastern Texas, part of the deep South swamp lands that run through Louisiana and Alabama (the argument for Florida State). They fit with LSU, Arkansas, andthe Alabama schools. It seems to be working.

Missouri I agree is a funky fit, a State slightly more Midwestern than Southern. But at least they were placed with fellow border state Kentucky as well as SEC "East" (really North) schools in Tennessee and Vandy, plus similar liberal campuses Florida and Georgia, rather than the deep south SEC "West."

Nebraska, is another one where posters look at the entirety of the State rather than recognizing Lincoln and Omaha are on the very eastern side of the State, near Iowa and are tied in with upper plains States like Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota. But they could really use another Plains school like OU or KU to fit better in the B1G -- that could happen.

Maryland is one of those states that has shifted region. It is still deep Tidewater culture, but siding with the North and trade lines and migration patterns, as well as industrial patterns make it no longer southern. When paired with Penn State and Rutgers, as well as Ohio State, it forms part of a four school somewhat eastern cluster, not isolated. But it did rip much from the history of the school being the Northern outpost of the ACC for decades and decades. They are still adapting. (Note Baltimore Ravens are in the same conference with Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Cleveland -- the professional leagues have titled them north for some time.)
06-17-2018 06:07 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #97
RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
Boulder, CO:
Lincoln, NE - 6:55
Manhattan, KS - 7:08
Salt Lake City, UT - 7:51
Lawrence, KS - 8:10
Stillwater, OK - 9:18
Norman, OK - 9:59
Ames, IA - 10:04
Columbia, MO - 10:26
Tempe, AZ - 13:03
etc

Colorado belongs with the Big 8 schools IMO. You could realistically roadtrip in one day to all of them. Utah is the only PAC school that holds true for. Their history and roadtrips are favorable to the Big 8 and that’s what makes college football great.
06-17-2018 06:22 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #98
RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
(06-17-2018 06:22 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Boulder, CO:
Lincoln, NE - 6:55
Manhattan, KS - 7:08
Salt Lake City, UT - 7:51
Lawrence, KS - 8:10
Stillwater, OK - 9:18
Norman, OK - 9:59
Ames, IA - 10:04
Columbia, MO - 10:26
Tempe, AZ - 13:03
etc

Colorado belongs with the Big 8 schools IMO. You could realistically roadtrip in one day to all of them. Utah is the only PAC school that holds true for. Their history and roadtrips are favorable to the Big 8 and that’s what makes college football great.

Colorado would be a favorable add for the old Big 8 territory. But the Big 8 territory is not a favorable move for Colorado. It isn't a question of driving distances. They aren't really close to anybody in the P5. They want to be in a western conference, and there is only one of those in the P5. They aren't going anywhere.
(This post was last modified: 06-17-2018 06:30 PM by ken d.)
06-17-2018 06:28 PM
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RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
Nebraska definitely belongs in BXII land. <7 hr drives to all Big 8 schools and 3 <3.5.

B1G
Iowa City, IA - 4:24
Minneapolis, MN - 6:14
Madison, WI - 7:08
Champaign, IL - 7:44
Evanston, IL - 7:47
West Lafaeyette, IN - 8:57
Bloomington, IN - 10:00
East Lansing, MI - 10:24
Ann Arbor, MI - 10:39
Columbus, OH - 12:02
Happy Valley, PA - 15:37
College Park, MD - 17:35
Piscataway, NJ - 18:53

BXII
Manhattan, KS - 2:25
Lawrence, KS - 3:14
Ames, IA - 3:18
(Columbia, MO - 4:51)
Stillwater, OK - 5:55
Norman, OK - 6:36
(Boulder, CO - 6:57)
Fort Worth, TX - 9:09
Waco, TX - 10:21
Lubbock, TX - 11:08
(College Station, TX - 11:41)
Austin, TX - 11:54
Morgantown, WV - 14:58
06-17-2018 06:39 PM
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OdinFrigg Offline
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Post: #100
RE: Arizona State: Time to go rogue
(06-17-2018 03:42 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(06-17-2018 09:46 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-17-2018 09:38 AM)westwolf Wrote:  Except for West Va, Texas A&M, Missouri, Maryland and Rutgers, the P5 schools are right where they belong geographically. The Pac 12 can't change geography or time zones. Most of us in the west (Cali excepted) are glad to be separated from the crime, noise, traffic and weather of the eastern half of the country.

I'd add a couple to the list, from a strictly geographic perspective:

Colorado and Nebraska ... belong in Big 12

FSU and Miami .... SEC

And Louisville

Those on the contiguous fringe of a conference can be debatable. From the geographical standpoint, West Virginia is the most displaced.

I would include Notre Dame. The BIG is the best geographic fit for ND.

Iowa State no longer borders another B12 state but is close to Kansas.
(This post was last modified: 06-17-2018 07:55 PM by OdinFrigg.)
06-17-2018 07:53 PM
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