billybobby777
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RE: Industry sources predict a TV revenue raise for AAC
(08-05-2018 11:10 AM)Attackcoog Wrote: (08-05-2018 10:48 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote: Ah, I better understand what you are saying: a better TV conference could be built jettisoning the worse performers of the AAC and adding in some of the below.
Obviously football viewership alone isn't the sole decision factor in the real world (basketball, academics and other institutional fit, geography for Olympic sports travel, etc) but this is an interesting exercise.
I went school by school, all 12 AACs and the ones you list below. I've added to your post the AAC schools each outdated in all regular season games.
Boise and BYU garnered fewer viewers than Memphis, Navy, UCF, and USF. If you take away Army-Navy (assuming that would remain it's own thing even for your hypothetical best of the rest) Navy falls behind BYU, Boise, and Houston.
The others? Not so much.
Note as well, CSU and Fresno each got two thirds of their viewers in payday games at Alabama. If we went to conference controlled or intraconference games they fall behind possibly UConn.
Bowls don't change much of the order if you add them in.
(08-05-2018 02:27 AM)DavidSt Wrote: (08-04-2018 07:13 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote: (08-03-2018 11:08 AM)DavidSt Wrote: You do get a few exceptions in the MWC that gets better ratings.
I want to assume that you mean mwc exceptions that get better ratings than majority of mwc games.
mwc exceptions that get better ratings than AAC games isn't really true.
Here are 2017's top ten most viewed games, conference-controlled only, from each of the two conferences, stacked together.
Millions of viewers-conf-game
4.700 AAC USF@UCF
3.385 AAC CCG
3.238 AAC UCLA@Memphis
1.369 AAC Illinois @ USF
1.324 mwc UVA@ Boise St
1.053 mwc Boise State @ UNM
0.992 AAC Temple@ USF
0.769 AAC Memphis@UConn
0.758 AAC Navy @ Temple
0.699 AAC navy @ Houston
0.697 AAC Temple @ Cincinnati
0.683 AAC Memphis @ Tulsa
0.623 mwc Boise St - Fresno St CCG
0.525 mwc BYU @ UNLV
0.455 mwc Hawaii @ Wyoming
0.436 mwc Air Force @ Boise St
0.421 mwc Nevada @ Colorado St
0.414 mwc Wyoming @ Boise St
0.391 mwc Colorado St @ New Mexico
0.359 mwc UNLV@New Mexico
* Texas Tech @ Houston was a reverse mirror ABC/ESPN2 game listed as 3.850 million viewers as well.
If you want to add non-conference-controlled games back in, like some theory that a particular school draws viewers when it goes visiting autonomy five schools:
8.419 AAC Army-Navy
4.700 AAC USF@UCF
3.693 AAC Cincinnati @ Michigan
3.385 AAC CCG
3.238 AAC UCLA@Memphis
3.203 AAC navy @ Notre Dame
2.070 mwc Fresno St @ Alabama
1.760 mwc Utah St @ Wisconsin
1.653 mwc Colorado St @Alabama
1.580 AAC Temple @ Notre Dame
1.369 AAC Illinois @ USF
1.324 mwc UVA@ Boise St
1.265 mwc Boise St @ Washington St
1.053 mwc Boise State @ UNM
1.043 mwc Boise State @ BYU
0.992 AAC Temple@ USF
0.769 AAC Memphis@UConn
0.623 mwc Boise St-Fresno St CCG
0.525 mwc BYU @ UNLV
0.455 mwc Hawaii @ Wyoming
Boise State > Houston. Temple, Cincy, Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane
Colorado State > Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane
New Mexico > Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane
Air Force > ECU, Tulane
San Diego State > Tulane
BYU > Houston. Temple, Cincy, Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane
Fresno State > Tulsa, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane
Those are the exceptions to the rules. Get the best of all the schools that do get a better ratings and create a new conference, you might get more money out of those group. North Dakota State and maybe Northern Illinois also draw viewers. Tulsa and Tulane and San Jose State all suck at getting people to tune in.
For a hypothetical best-of-the-rest based SOLELY on 2017's TV numbers, only SMU, Tulane, ECU fall out of the top 14. Tulsa is fighting for the top 12 if one discounts the mwc games at Alabama.
For a hypothetical best of the rest, with a holistic look, I still like SMU's basketball and location and money; I still like Tulanes academics and destination city and endowment; I still hope ECU can be what it has been in the not too distant past.
For any additions in the real world, if I think the AAC in it's current composition is worth $6 million per team per year, then for a 10% improvement in value, I need a network partner to think Boise and BYU and their viewers and their late night slots are worth $20 million per year. If I think the AAC is at the upper end of the commonly thrown around 6-8 million range, then adding them requires a network partner to value them at $27million per year for a 10% improvement.
And realistically, you’d need those two teams to add 10% to the deal PLUS the extra travel costs to make it worth doing. So it might really require a 15-20% improvement in the per school TV payout to make such additions attractive.
The idea of western schools joining an eastern conference with UConn, Temple,Navy, ECU,USF, UCF, Cincinnati and Memphis makes 0 sense now (if it ever did)..,
Good luck with Indy BYU.
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