Fact: The G5 rep will come from the 10 division winners.

Assumption: the comittee will never choose a 3-loss G5 champ.

Analysis: Nine teams across six divisions still in the running.

AAC East - UCF (0 losses) then Cincy (1)
AAC West - Busted

MWC Mountain - Utah St (1) then Boise (2)
MWC West - Fresno St (2) or bust

MAC East - Buffalo (1) or bust
MAC West - Busted

Sun Belt East - Troy (2) then App St (2)
Sun Belt West - Busted

CUSA East - Busted
CUSA West - UAB (1) or bust

And if you do it with just the 1 loss teams- it's only UCF, Cincy, Utah St, Buffalo, and UAB.

(11-11-2018 12:21 AM)stever20 Wrote:  And if you do it with just the 1 loss teams- it's only UCF, Cincy, Utah St, Buffalo, and UAB.

Went to Utah State game today, they now average 51.3 points per game, 1st in country. They look very good. They should get by CSU, then the big one in Boise.

The one last s lust has sure thinned out. I would l e to see UCF - USU in a NY 6 game but it would never happen.


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UAB plays at A&M this weekend. They have a chance to get some serious interest. A&M lost by 2 to Clemson and 22 at Alabama (along with MS. St. and Auburn on the road).

Eight teams across six divisions still in the running.

AAC East - UCF (0 losses) clinched
AAC West - Busted

MWC Mountain - Utah St (1) or Boise (2) - teams play Saturday
MWC West - Fresno St (2) clinched

MAC East - Buffalo (2) or bust
MAC West - Busted

Sun Belt East - Troy (2) or App St (2) - teams play Saturday
Sun Belt West - Busted

CUSA East - Busted
CUSA West - UAB (2) clinched

Should Fresno beat San Jose this weekend, then the MWC champ will either have 1 or 2 losses.

They are in prime position to make the Fiesta Bowl should UCF stumble at USF or against the Houston/Memphis winner in the title game (to be played in Orlando at UCF).

Even if they win out, I don't see Buffalo, UAB, Troy or App St overaking the MWC champ. UAB had a chance against A&M this weekend, and did not measure up.

Here's imo the order right now-
1- UCF with 0 losses
2- UCF losing this weekend but coming back to win vs AAC west team next week
3- Utah St/Boise St/Fresno St