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(12-20-2019 07:44 AM)converrl Wrote:  Reds are making a lot of moves...how many of these are going to shore up our most obvious weakness....the bullpen?

Could be more comings and going via trade but as of now, the bullpen may be getting Mahle unless they keep him in AAA as a starter. I feel good about Iglesias, Amir, Lorenzen and even Stephenson and I'm still somewhat confident that Cody Reed will put it together this year ala Stephenson last year. And there's still a few other guys on the 40 man to pick from that could be solid like Bowman, Jose DeLeon, Kuhnel, Sal, Josh Smith, Justin Shafer and Sims

That said, I think they'll add another piece or two to the bullpen as well before things are finished and that doesn't necessarily include today's signing of David Carpenter to a minor league deal. He's been pretty much the definition of a marginal journeyman but was great in AAA last year and has been working with Boddy and Driveline. He's my way too early prediction as this year's "who the heck is this guy breakout" in spring training.

(12-21-2019 08:33 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  

(12-20-2019 07:44 AM)converrl Wrote:  Reds are making a lot of moves...how many of these are going to shore up our most obvious weakness....the bullpen?

Could be more comings and going via trade but as of now, the bullpen may be getting Mahle unless they keep him in AAA as a starter. I feel good about Iglesias, Amir, Lorenzen and even Stephenson and I'm still somewhat confident that Cody Reed will put it together this year ala Stephenson last year. And there's still a few other guys on the 40 man to pick from that could be solid like Bowman, Jose DeLeon, Kuhnel, Sal, Josh Smith, Justin Shafer and Sims

That said, I think they'll add another piece or two to the bullpen as well before things are finished and that doesn't necessarily include today's signing of David Carpenter to a minor league deal. He's been pretty much the definition of a marginal journeyman but was great in AAA last year and has been working with Boddy and Driveline. He's my way too early prediction as this year's "who the heck is this guy breakout" in spring training.

Garrett was extremely suspect in the last half of the year....couldn't throw strikes when needed to save his life. Lorenzen started out well out of the pen, but faded late with control issues. 2 big holes that need plugged IMHO.

(12-21-2019 10:54 PM)converrl Wrote:  Garrett was extremely suspect in the last half of the year....couldn't throw strikes when needed to save his life. Lorenzen started out well out of the pen, but faded late with control issues. 2 big holes that need plugged IMHO.

I'm not saying either one is an All-Star (although I'm also not saying they couldn't be, especially Amir). I'm saying they are legit major league relievers who would be favored to make the roster of every or at least nearly every major league team if they were on it going into spring training.

But yes they could end up struggling. In most cases, there's a reason guys are in the bullpen rather than the rotation (not that SPs don't also have their seemingly random ups and downs too and of course injuries are always a risk and often a factor in guys "losing it".) For example, I'd have said the same thing about Hernandez and Hughes coming into last year and they both struggled mightily. But that's the nature of pitching these days, especially in the bullpen.

(12-22-2019 10:33 AM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  

(12-21-2019 10:54 PM)converrl Wrote:  Garrett was extremely suspect in the last half of the year....couldn't throw strikes when needed to save his life. Lorenzen started out well out of the pen, but faded late with control issues. 2 big holes that need plugged IMHO.

I'm not saying either one is an All-Star (although I'm also not saying they couldn't be, especially Amir). I'm saying they are legit major league relievers who would be favored to make the roster of every or at least nearly every major league team if they were on it going into spring training.

But yes they could end up struggling. In most cases, there's a reason guys are in the bullpen rather than the rotation (not that SPs don't also have their seemingly random ups and downs too and of course injuries are always a risk and often a factor in guys "losing it".) For example, I'd have said the same thing about Hernandez and Hughes coming into last year and they both struggled mightily. But that's the nature of pitching these days, especially in the bullpen.

Maybe the answer is...when the starting pitcher is pitching well....let him finish the game?

(12-22-2019 05:11 PM)converrl Wrote:  

(12-22-2019 10:33 AM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  

(12-21-2019 10:54 PM)converrl Wrote:  Garrett was extremely suspect in the last half of the year....couldn't throw strikes when needed to save his life. Lorenzen started out well out of the pen, but faded late with control issues. 2 big holes that need plugged IMHO.

I'm not saying either one is an All-Star (although I'm also not saying they couldn't be, especially Amir). I'm saying they are legit major league relievers who would be favored to make the roster of every or at least nearly every major league team if they were on it going into spring training.

But yes they could end up struggling. In most cases, there's a reason guys are in the bullpen rather than the rotation (not that SPs don't also have their seemingly random ups and downs too and of course injuries are always a risk and often a factor in guys "losing it".) For example, I'd have said the same thing about Hernandez and Hughes coming into last year and they both struggled mightily. But that's the nature of pitching these days, especially in the bullpen.

Maybe the answer is...when the starting pitcher is pitching well....let him finish the game?

I don't have data handy, but my understanding is it says otherwise. Which is a big reason why so few SP finish games anymore in MLB. Of course, there's also a lot of ways to cut data based upon assumptions and sometimes it can be conflicting. But I think the original data point for most teams is that most SPs statistically pitch much worse the 3rd time through the lineup compared to the first two. So the theory is why let them? Another factor less statistically-based is wear and tear on arms. Everybody is justifiably concerned with keeping pitchers, especially your best ones, healthy and pitching. And the fear is that over-use is often the cause of arm problems. I'm somewhat skeptical about it, but it's an easy conclusion to draw and use against a manager if a guy keeps going deep into games and ends up injured. Nobody wants to be known as the guy who ruins his pitchers' arms by leaving them out there too long even if nobody can prove that was the actual cause.

A third issue is getting the matchups you want (e.g. lefty v. lefty hitters and righties v. righty hitters, etc.) The idea being if bringing a reliever helps your odds at getting a hitter out or through an inning unscathed, it obviously helps your chance at winning even if the 2nd pitcher (reliever) isn't as good as the SP overall. However, I'm not sure if it is official but I've heard baseball is strongly considering a 3 batter minimum before changing pitchers, which could change some of the calculations and perhaps even encourage leaving starters in a little longer (even if they still won't be actually going the full 9.)

surprised it hasn't been mentioned yet - Reds are the leading candidate for lefty hitting Japanese outfielder Shogo Akiyama.. could become the first Japanese born player to play for the Redlegs. Older player at 31, but his slash of .301/.376/.829 could definitely play well at GABP.. especially that OBP.

If he signs, it could lead to some interesting dominoes as far as player positions. Senzel could move back to the infield and bumping Freddy Galvis to the bench. Or Akiyama could platoon at a corner outfield spot with Winker and Aquino which would mean the Reds are likely out on Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos..

Or Senzel could be used as a foundation to a large trade (I personally hope not. I'm also a pretty big Indians fan, and would hate a Lindor trade for both teams.. I think Cleveland would be asking for too much/Reds would give up too much for <2 years of Lindor unless the unlikely chance they can sign him long term). I'm a believer, if you're small market team you need to build from a quality farm system, e.g. Cardinals and Indians).

(12-28-2019 05:15 PM)dubcat14 Wrote:  surprised it hasn't been mentioned yet - Reds are the leading candidate for lefty hitting Japanese outfielder Shogo Akiyama.. could become the first Japanese born player to play for the Redlegs. Older player at 31, but his slash of .301/.376/.829 could definitely play well at GABP.. especially that OBP.

If he signs, it could lead to some interesting dominoes as far as player positions. Senzel could move back to the infield and bumping Freddy Galvis to the bench. Or Akiyama could platoon at a corner outfield spot with Winker and Aquino which would mean the Reds are likely out on Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos..

Or Senzel could be used as a foundation to a large trade (I personally hope not. I'm also a pretty big Indians fan, and would hate a Lindor trade for both teams.. I think Cleveland would be asking for too much/Reds would give up too much for <2 years of Lindor unless the unlikely chance they can sign him long term). I'm a believer, if you're small market team you need to build from a quality farm system, e.g. Cardinals and Indians).

I'm not sure about this but I think there is basically one twitter "report" out there that the Reds are the favorite for Shogo. At least that's what the translation of the tweet seems to be saying. There's another report which I think is US-based saying another team is the favorite. Of course, the Reds have been mentioned with just about every bat out there that isn't locked into 1B or 3B so we'll have to see what these reports mean.

For the money, I really like Shogo too. Love the OBP of course if it translates to the US. He's apparently pretty fast and plays great D, but it seems like every time he's mentioned they say that he probably doesn't project into a legit MLB CF any more at his age. I suspect one person said it and the rest just keep repeating it although that doesn't mean it is or isn't true.

(12-28-2019 05:15 PM)dubcat14 Wrote:  surprised it hasn't been mentioned yet - Reds are the leading candidate for lefty hitting Japanese outfielder Shogo Akiyama.. could become the first Japanese born player to play for the Redlegs. Older player at 31, but his slash of .301/.376/.829 could definitely play well at GABP.. especially that OBP.

If he signs, it could lead to some interesting dominoes as far as player positions. Senzel could move back to the infield and bumping Freddy Galvis to the bench. Or Akiyama could platoon at a corner outfield spot with Winker and Aquino which would mean the Reds are likely out on Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos..

Or Senzel could be used as a foundation to a large trade (I personally hope not. I'm also a pretty big Indians fan, and would hate a Lindor trade for both teams.. I think Cleveland would be asking for too much/Reds would give up too much for <2 years of Lindor unless the unlikely chance they can sign him long term). I'm a believer, if you're small market team you need to build from a quality farm system, e.g. Cardinals and Indians).

Yeah, I've cooled on Lindor. The Reds will have to give up a lot to get a player for two years. I really believe Senzel is going to have a better year this season and I like the scenario above if it turns out we can sign Akiyama. I assume he could bat leadoff which as a lefty would be tremendous.

(12-28-2019 05:39 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  

(12-28-2019 05:15 PM)dubcat14 Wrote:  surprised it hasn't been mentioned yet - Reds are the leading candidate for lefty hitting Japanese outfielder Shogo Akiyama.. could become the first Japanese born player to play for the Redlegs. Older player at 31, but his slash of .301/.376/.829 could definitely play well at GABP.. especially that OBP.

If he signs, it could lead to some interesting dominoes as far as player positions. Senzel could move back to the infield and bumping Freddy Galvis to the bench. Or Akiyama could platoon at a corner outfield spot with Winker and Aquino which would mean the Reds are likely out on Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos..

Or Senzel could be used as a foundation to a large trade (I personally hope not. I'm also a pretty big Indians fan, and would hate a Lindor trade for both teams.. I think Cleveland would be asking for too much/Reds would give up too much for <2 years of Lindor unless the unlikely chance they can sign him long term). I'm a believer, if you're small market team you need to build from a quality farm system, e.g. Cardinals and Indians).

I'm not sure about this but I think there is basically one twitter "report" out there that the Reds are the favorite for Shogo At least that's what the translation of the tweet seems to be saying. There's another report which I think is US-based saying another team is the favorite. The Reds have been mentioned with just about every bat out there that isn't locked into 1B or 3B.

For the money, I really like Shogo too. Love the OBP of course if it translates to the US. He's apparently pretty fast and plays great D, but it seems like every time he's mentioned they say that he probably doesn't project into a legit MLB CF any more at his age. I suspect one person said it and the rest just keep repeating it although that doesn't mean it is or isn't true.

Yea depending on the source both the Reds and Padres are listed as favorites to land him. Supposedly wants to decide by the end of the year. Have to think with a Japanese player he'll be drawn more to the west coast but also apparently likes the idea of being the first Japanese born Reds player. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Seems very low risk/high reward.

(12-28-2019 10:53 PM)dubcat14 Wrote:  

(12-28-2019 05:39 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  

(12-28-2019 05:15 PM)dubcat14 Wrote:  surprised it hasn't been mentioned yet - Reds are the leading candidate for lefty hitting Japanese outfielder Shogo Akiyama.. could become the first Japanese born player to play for the Redlegs. Older player at 31, but his slash of .301/.376/.829 could definitely play well at GABP.. especially that OBP.

If he signs, it could lead to some interesting dominoes as far as player positions. Senzel could move back to the infield and bumping Freddy Galvis to the bench. Or Akiyama could platoon at a corner outfield spot with Winker and Aquino which would mean the Reds are likely out on Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos..

Or Senzel could be used as a foundation to a large trade (I personally hope not. I'm also a pretty big Indians fan, and would hate a Lindor trade for both teams.. I think Cleveland would be asking for too much/Reds would give up too much for <2 years of Lindor unless the unlikely chance they can sign him long term). I'm a believer, if you're small market team you need to build from a quality farm system, e.g. Cardinals and Indians).

I'm not sure about this but I think there is basically one twitter "report" out there that the Reds are the favorite for Shogo At least that's what the translation of the tweet seems to be saying. There's another report which I think is US-based saying another team is the favorite. The Reds have been mentioned with just about every bat out there that isn't locked into 1B or 3B.

For the money, I really like Shogo too. Love the OBP of course if it translates to the US. He's apparently pretty fast and plays great D, but it seems like every time he's mentioned they say that he probably doesn't project into a legit MLB CF any more at his age. I suspect one person said it and the rest just keep repeating it although that doesn't mean it is or isn't true.

Yea depending on the source both the Reds and Padres are listed as favorites to land him. Supposedly wants to decide by the end of the year. Have to think with a Japanese player he'll be drawn more to the west coast but also apparently likes the idea of being the first Japanese born Reds player. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Seems very low risk/high reward.

for the latest (which says Dbacks, Cubs and maybe Blue Jays also interested):

Reds, Padres Reportedly Leading Shogo Akiyama Bidding

He's signed, sealed, delivered...

Quote:The Cincinnati Reds may have added a new outfielder via free agency.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the team has reached an agreement with outfielder Shogo Akiyama on a three-year contract. He would be the first Japanese player in Cincinnati Reds history.

It's believed that the deal is worth approximately $20 million. The Reds were reported to be in competition with the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres for his services.

The 31-year-old Akiyama is a five-time Nippon Professional Baseball All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner as a centerfielder. However, it's not known if he would play centerfield in the majors.

In nine seasons with the Seibu Lions, he slashed .301/.376/.454. With those numbers, including a high on-base percentage, it's expected Akiyama could bat lead off for the Reds.

He also hit at least 20 homers in each of the past three seasons.

Akiyama is the third major addition to the club this offseason following the signings of infielder Mike Moustakas and starting pitcher Wade Miley.

Sho a Go

I haven't seen the final deal, but I'm pretty happy with this fairly low-risk pickup. We've added Moose, Miley and now Shogo without losing a single prospect nor blowing our budget. And now we've got a lot of options as far as trades and/or playing time at a lot of positions. I'd still like to see us add a bullpen arm or two and we should have the funds to make it a good one or two if we can find 'em.

There has to be a better option than Galvis at SS. Didn't he have a ridiculous cold streak at the plate last year for us? If we ride with Galvis as the starter, we're not really all-in.

Is it NO "GO" or "NO GO". That is all I am hearing right now in my head.

(12-31-2019 01:31 PM)crex043 Wrote:  There has to be a better option than Galvis at SS. Didn't he have a ridiculous cold streak at the plate last year for us? If we ride with Galvis as the starter, we're not really all-in.

That's correct, Galvis slashed .234/.284/.411 with his time with Cincy.. the optimist says it's a relatively small sample size (only 32 games) and he could turn it around, though he never really had great plate numbers.

Not sure how they compile it, but Baseball Reference projects him to slash .251/.300/.406 in 2020. Not great, not terrible.

Which makes it interesting how the Reds approach the positioning with Shogo signed. Does he play center and move Senzel back to his more natural middle infield spot. Does Suarez move back to shortstop where he says he's more comfortable and Moose to 3B where he is also more comfortable. Without a true CF, everyone had seemed to play just slightly out of position, Shogo could fix that.

Or is he too old/slow and would be more natural at a corner outfield spot. Does this make our younger guys more available in a trade? (I hope not.)

As Bearhawkeye said, let's add an arm or two in the bullpen and call it a wrap on the signings. This team looks like one that could compete and if not, not a lot of harm done.

(01-02-2020 11:04 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  

(12-31-2019 01:31 PM)crex043 Wrote:  There has to be a better option than Galvis at SS. Didn't he have a ridiculous cold streak at the plate last year for us? If we ride with Galvis as the starter, we're not really all-in.

That's correct, Galvis slashed .234/.284/.411 with his time with Cincy.. the optimist says it's a relatively small sample size (only 32 games) and he could turn it around, though he never really had great plate numbers.

Not sure how they compile it, but Baseball Reference projects him to slash .251/.300/.406 in 2020. Not great, not terrible.

Which makes it interesting how the Reds approach the positioning with Shogo signed. Does he play center and move Senzel back to his more natural middle infield spot. Does Suarez move back to shortstop where he says he's more comfortable and Moose to 3B where he is also more comfortable. Without a true CF, everyone had seemed to play just slightly out of position, Shogo could fix that.

Or is he too old/slow and would be more natural at a corner outfield spot. Does this make our younger guys more available in a trade? (I hope not.)

As Bearhawkeye said, let's add an arm or two in the bullpen and call it a wrap on the signings. This team looks like one that could compete and if not, not a lot of harm done.

It would be nice if he could, but the ship has sailed on Suarez at SS. He's older now and just doesn't have the body for it anymore imo. That's probably true of Senzel as well, but the more I think about it, the more I'd be tempted to give it another shot. Theoretically, you could bring in Galvis for late-inning defense at SS (bring him in as a pinch-runner anytime Winker got on later in the game) and shift Senzel to LF for Winker for defense there. Senzel would be below average at SS defensively but it would sure seem to help the lineup offensively. The question is how far below average would he be? The other thing is I hate moving him around so much. It's tough to focus on hitting when you are always learning a new position and we need him to hit.

Here's how I see the Reds win totals in 2020, using conservative estimates:

75 wins in 2019
+ 4 WAR due to losing Peraza, Kemp, Scooter, Schebler, and Hernandez (they combined for -5.1 WAR in 2019)
+ 3 WAR Moustakas (averaged 2.9 WAR over past 3 seasons; he's replacing the black hole at 2B)
+ 3 WAR full season of Bauer (he was -0.5 WAR for Reds last year, has averaged 3.6 WAR over past 3 years with Indians, he's replacing Mahle's 0.1 WAR)
+ 1 WAR Wade Miley (averaged 1.7 WAR over past 3 seasons; replacing Roark and Wood's combined 1.3 WAR)
+ 2 WAR Senzel 2nd year improvement (only 0.6 WAR last season for a top-10 MLB prospect; played with injured wrist)
+ 1 WAR Shogo (assuming 2 WAR and that he replaces Puig's 400 PA and VanMeter's 260 PA who combined for 1.1 WAR)
- 1 WAR at SS (assuming Galvis does 1 WAR worse than Iglesias's 1.5 WAR in 2019)
- 1 WAR Suarez regression to mean (had career high 4.5 WAR in 2019, after 4.2 in 2018 and 3.7 in 2017)
+ 1 WAR Votto regression to mean (had career-low 1.6 WAR in 2019, after 3.5 n 2018 and 7.4 in 2017)

Add it all up, and you have 88 wins.

Plus, the Reds still have time to add other pieces.

(01-07-2020 02:10 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Here's how I see the Reds win totals in 2020, using conservative estimates:

75 wins in 2019
+ 4 WAR due to losing Peraza, Kemp, Scooter, Schebler, and Hernandez (they combined for -5.1 WAR in 2019)
+ 3 WAR Moustakas (averaged 2.9 WAR over past 3 seasons; he's replacing the black hole at 2B)
+ 3 WAR full season of Bauer (he was -0.5 WAR for Reds last year, has averaged 3.6 WAR over past 3 years with Indians, he's replacing Mahle's 0.1 WAR)
+ 1 WAR Wade Miley (averaged 1.7 WAR over past 3 seasons; replacing Roark and Wood's combined 1.3 WAR)
+ 2 WAR Senzel 2nd year improvement (only 0.6 WAR last season for a top-10 MLB prospect; played with injured wrist)
+ 1 WAR Shogo (assuming 2 WAR and that he replaces Puig's 400 PA and VanMeter's 260 PA who combined for 1.1 WAR)
- 1 WAR at SS (assuming Galvis does 1 WAR worse than Iglesias's 1.5 WAR in 2019)
- 1 WAR Suarez regression to mean (had career high 4.5 WAR in 2019, after 4.2 in 2018 and 3.7 in 2017)
+ 1 WAR Votto regression to mean (had career-low 1.6 WAR in 2019, after 3.5 n 2018 and 7.4 in 2017)

Add it all up, and you have 88 wins.

Plus, the Reds still have time to add other pieces.

Your conservative estimate is pretty spot on with Matt Vasgersian's projection who was on MLB Network yesterday and sees the NL Central projecting as:

Reds 90-72
Cardinals 86-76
Brewers 84-78
Cubs 81-81
Pirates 70-92

We can only hope.

Also have to factor in what others in the division did this off-season and it's mostly positive for the Reds.

Cubs and Pirates both spent exactly $0 on free agents. Cardinals spent $13m which is in the bottom half of the league

(01-07-2020 02:39 PM)dubcat14 Wrote:  Your conservative estimate is pretty spot on with Matt Vasgersian's who was MLB Network and sees the NL Central projecting as:

Reds 90-72
Cardinals 86-76
Brewers 84-78
Cubs 81-81
Pirates 70-92

We can only hope.

If that happens I'll just have to dye my body hair red.