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Rumors are the Reds are very interested in a couple of ex-Reds (mostly as farmhands) in the free-agent market: SS Didi and C Grandal. Both shape up as upgrades but I'm not sure they are worth the LTC cost and risk. Also, some speculation that they'd be very interested in trading for SS Francisco Lindor or OF Mookie Betts. Who wouldn't? Like most things, I think it will come down to cost. In terms of talent cost in a trade, I'm not sure the Reds have enough to pull off a major deal. Good news for fans is it sounds like the Reds are going to spend some significant coin (at least by their standards) on something this offseason.

Well the Grandal option died pretty quickly. I like him, but as a catcher in his 30s, I sure wouldn't outbid what he got to get him. He probably also prefers the AL option to occasionally DH to save his knees a bit.

Newest rumor also has a deja vu element to it as the Reds have been mentioned as interested in free agent SP Zach Wheeler going back prior to the Jay Bruce trade even. Would make for a tremendous rotation and give them the option of including either Mahle or Disco in a trade for offense.

Reds sign Moustakas & non-tender Peraza.

Hopefully Castellini opens up the pocketbook and doesn't stop there.

(12-02-2019 03:50 PM)InspectorHound Wrote:  Reds sign Moustakas & non-tender Peraza.

Hopefully Castellini opens up the pocketbook and doesn't stop there.

reportedly 4 years and $64M. I like adding him but man that's a lot of dough especially for a guy over 30. He's got a lot of pop from the left side (which the Reds were lacking with Votto's slide) and some positional versatility (very likely 2B for the Reds.) But he's no great shakes as far as batting avg and more importantly on-base percentage and probably just average defensively at 2B if that.

It could pay off big, but I probably wouldn't have made the deal for that money and length. Sure Moose is a great nickname, but heck they could have gotten Scooter (who is younger than Moose) back and kept Peraza as insurance both for probably a small fraction of that I'm guessing. I think there's a pretty good chance that last year was just an injury-filled aberration for Scooter. Wasn't the scoop on trading/signing Scooter that it was difficult because the market just isn't there for 2Bs?

Oh well, hopefully it pays off and Moose keeps hitting for the next 4 years at least as well as he has the last few. Offense was definitely lacking last year. I think I'd have preferred to spend elsewhere (do you ever have enough pitching?) but indications are the Reds aren't done spending yet.

That’s a big dang contract for another guy who may not bat .250.

Wake me when they fix the bullpen

(12-02-2019 09:58 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  Wake me when they fix the bullpen

I think we've got a pretty solid nucleus with Iggy, Amir, Lorenzon and even Stephenson (not to mention the possibility of the newly acquired DeLeon fully recovering) but yeah that $64M could have gone a long way in adding bullpen arms whether directly in free agency or by adding a starter like Wheeler and then moving Mahle to the pen or trading Disco for some other team's bad contract accompanied by some of their quality young pitching arms.

Reds supposedly still looking to spend big (by their standards anyway), but the more I look at this signing the less I like it at the price we paid.

I still would've preferred spending the Moose money elsewhere, but it sounds like that big contract won't stop them from perhaps also giving an even bigger one to Wheeler if recent reporting is true. Supposedly a signing could come very soon and the Reds are one of his final 3 with the Chisox and Phillies iirc for a contract estimated at over $100M total.

(12-04-2019 04:48 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  I still would've preferred spending the Moose money elsewhere, but it sounds like that big contract won't stop them from perhaps also giving an even bigger one to Wheeler if recent reporting is true. Supposedly a signing could come very soon and the Reds are one of his final 3 with the Chisox and Phillies iirc for a contract estimated at over $100M total.

Looks like Zach Wheeler to the Phillies on a 5 year/$118M deal. His wife I believe to have read is from the area.

If they're still going to target pitching, Dallas Keuchel and Rick Porcello are still decent options that can probably be had at few years.

(12-04-2019 05:42 PM)dubcat14 Wrote:  

(12-04-2019 04:48 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  I still would've preferred spending the Moose money elsewhere, but it sounds like that big contract won't stop them from perhaps also giving an even bigger one to Wheeler if recent reporting is true. Supposedly a signing could come very soon and the Reds are one of his final 3 with the Chisox and Phillies iirc for a contract estimated at over $100M total.

Looks like Zach Wheeler to the Phillies on a 5 year/$118M deal. His wife I believe to have read is from the area.

If they're still going to target pitching, Dallas Keuchel and Rick Porcello are still decent options that can probably be had at few years.

I like Wheeler a lot, but that's a heckuva lotta money too (supposedly the White Sox were offering $125M.) Any big signing is a risk of course, but with pitchers we should probably just assume they are going to miss the equivalent of one of those 5 seasons if not more.

Porcello was great in 2016 at age 27 but seems to be in serious decline since then topped off with a 5.52 ERA last year. Heck, Homer Bailey was easily better than that last year and wouldn't cost nearly as much (mostly kidding about bringing back Homer but not completely). I'd like to add a lefty but Keuchel doesn't excite me much either. I mean he's a decent starter, but I don't see him as particularly better than say Tanner Roark was for us. I guess I'd be fine with adding Keuchel at maybe $20-25M total for 2 years but I think he's going to want and probably get much more than that in both years and in annual salary.

Some of talk is that the Reds and others who were interested in Wheeler are now focusing on MadBum and speculation is he might end up with a deal similar to Wheeler's. He's very interesting, but it feels like way too much for a guy his age and recent performance. Fangraphs estimates that Ryu will get a 3 year $48M deal. That's the one I'd jump on (although so far the free agent estimates this year have almost all ended up on the low side and sometimes the very low side.)

More and more I'm thinking the Reds should look at trade concepts centered on them taking on somebody else's bad contract in a package that includes us also getting some established talent or big-time prospects like I mentioned earlier. Additionally, save a few bucks in the bank until we get close to the start of the season and see if there's some bargains there (sort of like Keuchel was last year.) It's probably too late now since we have our new 2B, but I still wonder if we could have put something together with Boston for Mookie Betts' last year before free agency and David Price's enormous contract.

Reds add Wade Miley on a 2 year $15M deal. He was excellent in 2018 in his one season with DJ as his pitching coach which was probably a big factor in both sides' decisions to reunite them. He's getting up there a bit in age at 33, but he was really good last year through his first 28 starts (13-4 record and 3.06 ERA) before getting roughed up some in September. But of course, those are the things that make him affordable. He's a nice pickup to pencil in as our #5 guy and is a lefty to boot. He also gives us options with Mahle whether we put him the bullpen or keep him starting in AAA until needed in the bigs or to maybe trade Disco as part of a package for a hitter.

(12-17-2019 09:40 AM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  Reds add Wade Miley on a 2 year $15M deal. He was excellent in 2018 in his one season with DJ as his pitching coach which was probably a big factor in both sides' decisions to reunite them. He's getting up there a bit in age at 33, but he was really good last year through his first 28 starts (13-4 record and 3.06 ERA) before getting roughed up some in September. But of course, those are the things that make him affordable. He's a nice pickup to pencil in as our #5 guy and is a lefty to boot. He also gives us options with Mahle whether we put him the bullpen or keep him starting in AAA until needed in the bigs or to maybe trade Disco as part of a package for a hitter.

Anytime you can add a durable, consistent guy to your starting rotation at that price and as a lefty is a good move IMO. I like that it's just a two year deal too.

(12-17-2019 04:57 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(12-17-2019 09:40 AM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  Reds add Wade Miley on a 2 year $15M deal. He was excellent in 2018 in his one season with DJ as his pitching coach which was probably a big factor in both sides' decisions to reunite them. He's getting up there a bit in age at 33, but he was really good last year through his first 28 starts (13-4 record and 3.06 ERA) before getting roughed up some in September. But of course, those are the things that make him affordable. He's a nice pickup to pencil in as our #5 guy and is a lefty to boot. He also gives us options with Mahle whether we put him the bullpen or keep him starting in AAA until needed in the bigs or to maybe trade Disco as part of a package for a hitter.

Anytime you can add a durable, consistent guy to your starting rotation at that price and as a lefty is a good move IMO. I like that it's just a two year deal too.

Plus a team option for a 3rd year @ $10M (or $1M buyout) iirc.

I'm expecting at least one more big signing or trade this offseason

I don't know how much "smoke" there is to this yet but an interesting development to say the least...

Quote:The Reds have been engaged in trade talks with the Indians regarding superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Jon Heyman of MLB Network adds that the "Indians are said to like Nick Senzel very much."

The Indians are fresh off trading starting pitcher Corey Kluber and could certainly use the outfield help. Meanwhile, the Reds currently have Freddy Galvis slotted as their starting shortstop and obviously Lindor would mark a substantial upgrade.

Lindor, 26, hit .284/.335/.518 (118 OPS+) with 40 doubles, 32 homers, 74 RBI, 101 runs and 22 steals last year, good for 4.7 WAR after starting the season injured. He's two seasons away from free agency, so this would appear to be the optimal time for the Indians to deal him.

Senzel, 24, hit .256/.315/.427 (89 OPS+) with 20 doubles, four triples, 12 homers, 42 RBI, 55 runs and 14 stolen bases last season in 104 games as a rookie.

The Reds have been aggressive in looking to turn things around into a contender while the Indians seem ready to deal players close to free agency. There's a match here, but talks haven't been said to be serious just yet.

Trade With Cleveland Building Steam?

Some of the ideas I've seen floating around are way too much for the Reds to give up. Two years of Lindor for a package like Senzel, India, Green, and someone else just hurts the Reds too much in the future.

(12-19-2019 09:50 PM)The Big O Wrote:  Some of the ideas I've seen floating around are way too much for the Reds to give up. Two years of Lindor for a package like Senzel, India, Green, and someone else just hurts the Reds too much in the future.

Yeah there's nonsense like this going around from this guy who used to write in Cinti but now writes in Cleveland:

I'd consider Senzel (controlled for 6 years) for Lindor (2 years at probably close to $40M total in arbitration before free agency) straight up depending upon what I thought about my options for finding a replacement CF (DeShields, Jr. as part of the return doesn't do it for me). But honestly, that sounds like an overpay with just Senzel for Lindor to me.

I'm sure the Reds have some legit interest, but there's a lot of speculation that Indians are just putting the Reds interest out there (and encouraging these ridiculous possible returns from the Reds) to get the Dodgers to try to beat it (with Gavin Lux specifically).

Reds are making a lot of moves...how many of these are going to shore up our most obvious weakness....the bullpen?

Lindor is like having a porsche to drive for two years on a lease you can't afford. I'd be happy if the Reds hit the pause button after acquiring Miley. Get close to the all star break and see where we are. If we look in contention for a playoff spot then make another deal to improve the team for the stretch run. I'm banking on Senzel having a better year at the plate after his rook season. Look at our starting rotation in 2020:

Luis Castillo [R] 27 yrs
Sonny Gray [R] 30
Trevor Bauer [R] 28
Anthony DeSclafani [R] 29
Wade Miley [L] 33

On paper, this has to be our best starting block in a long, long time.

OF is still pretty tricky for the Reds. It could be terrific as is or it could be pretty bad and nobody exemplifies that more than Aquino. I think we have to put him out there with first dibs but also with the patience to understand there's probably going to be major cold (but hopefully also major hot) streaks coming from him. How much patience is hard to say. Hopefully, he makes it a moot issue.

Senzel has to play somewhere and it looks like CF is the only position left for him. Maybe more importantly, he might be the only guy who can hit and actually play a legit CF. He was OK as a rookie but needs to be better. That's normal and I think he's fully capable, but you never know until he actually does it. Janikowski can't hit but he can come in and play some late-inning defense.

A platoon with Winker (struggles with lefties) and Ervin (crushes lefties) in LF looks terrific on paper, but who knows what will happen in reality if they go that way.

Plus they've got 3 OF lottery tickets who have all proven they can smash in AAA in VanMeter, Martini (from the Padres) and the Rule 5 guy (Payton).

It seems like a decent group with a lot of mix and match options. The big issue though is none of them have had a fully successful and healthy big league season to speak of yet. Even if they don't trade Senzel in a Lindor deal, I think they are going to add an experienced OF bat.