(04-06-2020 05:35 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  But there have to be enough G5s to go around. Right now the numbers are about equal, so I think that's satisfactory for the P5.

Yes, the notion that the P5 want G5 schools to go away is just unfounded. P5 like having G5 around as extra home games. True, the P5 pay $1 million or whatever for that, but in reality the G5 pay a lot more - they spend $25m a year in fees and institutional transfers to keep their money losing programs around. The more schools that want to do that, the merrier for the P5.

If the G5 didn't exist, the P5 would have to somehow invent it.

(04-06-2020 04:03 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  

(04-06-2020 03:53 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(04-06-2020 03:36 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  None of these combinations will happen. There are not enough financial or competitive benefits for all parties involved to realigning. As much as some want more geographically friendly conferences, the P5's are not going to allow the NCAA to create an incentive for G5 realignment. They would much rather watch smaller programs struggle financially and drop out of the FBS. I've said it before... Every year it is getting more expensive to play at the FBS level, and some programs won't be able to keep up. This is how the P5 thin the herd actually without forcing programs out.

The P5 schools like having the G5 schools around for buy games.

Yeah, I don't think the P5 have any actual interest in killing off the G5 or seeing programs drop down. They've sufficiently ensured the G5 are no threat to P5 dominance, and they've pretty much eliminated most every non-power conference from getting multiple NCAA tournament bids. I don't see why they'd care at this point one way or the other.

The realignment to geographically sensible conferences (like the MAC is) generates both significant savings on the travel side, and it generates fan interest. With the minuscule TV contracts that CUSA and the SBC have, ticket sales remain the primary financial driver (after student fees anyway). That means you need to have games that interest casual fans to buy tickets.

Whatever Louisiana Tech may think about being a superior program to ULL/ULM, there's no team in CUSA other than maybe Southern Miss that is going to drive fan interest at LT like games with those in-state teams. Attendance will be up from LT fans and from visiting fans.

That same thought basically applies across a lot of these schools. Is it better for UNT to play Texas State or to play FIU when you are trying to maximize ticket sales? For Charlotte to play Rice or to play App State? UAB would benefit from Troy/USA as well as Georgia State on the schedule.

There's too much thinking from some programs that this is a zero sum game. It's not, and by banding together, they will generate themselves a stronger competitive position.

I don't think you are viewing this from the perspective of UNT. Sure North Texas values ticket sales and fan support. But, those numbers have improved since we joined C-USA despite the size of the conference. And, North Texas already enjoys regular home games with Rice, UTSA, UTEP, and SMU. LA Tech is also located within the same distance as three of those four programs. Plus, we also have home and home series scheduled with Houston, Baylor and Texas Tech. So, the need for more regional conference games isn't as essential for North Texas.

Remember, we spent a decade on an island as the only Texas member of the Sun Belt. We can make a far flung conference work. At this point maintaining quality is more important for North Texas. If we become regional at the expense of quality, than we risk falling further behind. It is better that North Texas plays a Butch Davis coached FIU or Willie Tagart coached FAU, than play a Texas State team that has not won more than 3 games in any of the past 5 seasons. It's that simple.

(04-06-2020 05:35 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(04-06-2020 05:26 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(04-06-2020 03:53 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(04-06-2020 03:36 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  None of these combinations will happen. There are not enough financial or competitive benefits for all parties involved to realigning. As much as some want more geographically friendly conferences, the P5's are not going to allow the NCAA to create an incentive for G5 realignment. They would much rather watch smaller programs struggle financially and drop out of the FBS. I've said it before... Every year it is getting more expensive to play at the FBS level, and some programs won't be able to keep up. This is how the P5 thin the herd actually without forcing programs out.

The P5 schools like having the G5 schools around for buy games.

No. The P5 like having some G5's around for buy games. They don't need or want all of us. They don't like having 130 programs in the FBS. Every one of them can count an FCS win towards bowl eligibility every year.

But there have to be enough G5s to go around. Right now the numbers are about equal, so I think that's satisfactory for the P5.

Like I said, the P5's can schedule FCS teams too. They don't need or want 65 G5 programs for body-bag games. I'm sure they would love to cut the G5 numbers down to around 35 or 40.

UNT averages about 7,500 less against non-TX opponents: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North...tball_team

If the economic impact of the pandemic/shutdown is felt deeply enough in college sports, perhaps the NCAA would be amenable to allowing more regionally coherent conferences to form out of whole cloth without the long wait to become fully realized. With that in mind, here's my four-conference solution:

EAST COAST
ODU
JMU
Liberty
Charlotte
Appalachian State
Coastal Carolina
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
UConn (football)
UMass (football)
UNC Wilmington (non-football)
Charleston (non-football)

SOUTHEAST
FIU
Florida Atlantic
Troy
UAB
South Alabama
Southern Miss
Marshall
WKU
Middle Tennessee
Arkansas State
UALR (nonfootball)

TEXAS AND FRIENDS
Rice
North Texas
Texas-San Antonio
UTEP
Texas State
New Mexico State
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Monroe
Louisiana
UT Arlington (non-football)

To get all conferences to nine, drop JMU or Liberty and Louisiana Monroe.

This is probably awful.

(04-06-2020 05:56 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  UNT averages about 7,500 less against non-TX opponents: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North...tball_team

True, but that hasn't had an effect on our growth. And our overall attendance has gone up.

North Texas has spent tens of million$ on renovations or building new facilities in the past 4 years. And, in the last 7 years, North Texas has doubled our athletic budget from $20 million to $40 million. Is there another G5 that has doubled their athletic budget in the last 7 years?

(04-06-2020 05:38 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-06-2020 05:17 PM)Wedge Wrote:  I doubt a breakaway group would include 12 or more schools. It could be messy.

But clearly it will end at 12 because that's the magic number for a FB championship game. Now if it no longer makes sense financially to have 12 conference members to get that game for whatever reason then the next most logical is probably 9. It's really easy to schedule 9 across all the sports with their various byes and needs.

A conference only "needs" to have a CCG if TV pays a large sum of money for it. Otherwise they are just dividing a small pie into more slices. The Sun Belt has a CCG now with 10 football teams, I suppose a breakaway group would have 10 if they want a CCG.

In any event a breakaway group, like the group that started the Mountain West, would not feel any need to leave the remaining schools with a geographically compatible lineup of teams.

I've said before that I think change will be initiated by the C-USA eastern schools, rather than any of the other three divisions within C-USA and the Sun Belt.

Old Dominion is CLEARLY discontent. The other eastern schools recruit in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and Virginia more than they do in Texas, so I think they would have little issue giving up games in the western side of the southeast if it means they can get more in those states i just listed.

Charlotte would be on board with the opportunity to drop Texas schools in favor of Georgia schools and a huge potential rivalry with App State, not to mention one with nearby Coastal Carolina.

What I envision is a multi-school withdrawal from C-USA in the east to form a 10-12 league with Sun Belt schools and maybe Liberty and/or JMU. Not every eastern school would be included, so someone may be forced into indeoendence.

I think the end result would be two conferences: the new one started by the C-USA eastern schools, and either the remaining, western Sun Belt (who would gobble up many of the remaining C-USA schools) or the remaining, western C-USA (who would gobble up many of the remaining Sun Belt schools). Basically, there would be a new eastern league, and either the Sun Belt or C-USA would dissolve.

(04-06-2020 05:54 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(04-06-2020 05:35 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(04-06-2020 05:26 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(04-06-2020 03:53 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(04-06-2020 03:36 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  None of these combinations will happen. There are not enough financial or competitive benefits for all parties involved to realigning. As much as some want more geographically friendly conferences, the P5's are not going to allow the NCAA to create an incentive for G5 realignment. They would much rather watch smaller programs struggle financially and drop out of the FBS. I've said it before... Every year it is getting more expensive to play at the FBS level, and some programs won't be able to keep up. This is how the P5 thin the herd actually without forcing programs out.

The P5 schools like having the G5 schools around for buy games.

No. The P5 like having some G5's around for buy games. They don't need or want all of us. They don't like having 130 programs in the FBS. Every one of them can count an FCS win towards bowl eligibility every year.

But there have to be enough G5s to go around. Right now the numbers are about equal, so I think that's satisfactory for the P5.

Like I said, the P5's can schedule FCS teams too. They don't need or want 65 G5 programs for body-bag games. I'm sure they would love to cut the G5 numbers down to around 35 or 40.

They can only count one FCS win toward bowl eligibility. Hence the need for G5s.

(04-06-2020 06:55 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  They can only count one FCS win toward bowl eligibility.

That is the current rule. If the price of buy games keeps going up, it's not difficult to imagine a push for allowing two games vs. FCS teams to count toward bowl eligibility. When a G5 buy game costs $1 million more than an FCS buy game, and the P5 team sells about the same number of tickets whether the opponent is Ball State or Indiana State, then the P5 team has a million-dollar-per-year incentive to support a rule change.

(04-06-2020 06:52 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  I've said before that I think change will be initiated by the C-USA eastern schools, rather than any of the other three divisions within C-USA and the Sun Belt.

Old Dominion is CLEARLY discontent. The other eastern schools recruit in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and Virginia more than they do in Texas, so I think they would have little issue giving up games in the western side of the southeast if it means they can get more in those states i just listed.

Charlotte would be on board with the opportunity to drop Texas schools in favor of Georgia schools and a huge potential rivalry with App State, not to mention one with nearby Coastal Carolina.

What I envision is a multi-school withdrawal from C-USA in the east to form a 10-12 league with Sun Belt schools and maybe Liberty and/or JMU. Not every eastern school would be included, so someone may be forced into indeoendence.

I think the end result would be two conferences: the new one started by the C-USA eastern schools, and either the remaining, western Sun Belt (who would gobble up many of the remaining C-USA schools) or the remaining, western C-USA (who would gobble up many of the remaining Sun Belt schools). Basically, there would be a new eastern league, and either the Sun Belt or C-USA would dissolve.

Sounds reasonable. 10 teams in travel partner pairs:

Old Dominion, Coastal Carolina
Appalachian State, UNC-Charlotte
Georgia Southern, Georgia State
Florida Atlantic, Florida International

Choose your own adventure for the final pairing:
UAB, South Alabama
UAB, Troy
Troy, South Alabama
Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky
Marshall, Middle Tennessee

To me UAB, South Alabama make the most sense.

If a reshuffle ever happens it will be the C-USA East schools who initiate it. They’ll form their league. C-USA, with mostly Western schools, will do some backfill from the SBC West. there will be a few left behind in the SBC that will need FCS call ups to rebuild their shattered league.

(04-06-2020 07:04 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(04-06-2020 06:55 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  They can only count one FCS win toward bowl eligibility.

That is the current rule. If the price of buy games keeps going up, it's not difficult to imagine a push for allowing two games vs. FCS teams to count toward bowl eligibility. When a G5 buy game costs $1 million more than an FCS buy game, and the P5 team sells about the same number of tickets whether the opponent is Ball State or Indiana State, then the P5 team has a million-dollar-per-year incentive to support a rule change.

I could certainly see that happening. If the P5's adopted a "2 FCS games" rule right now, it would ruin at least a few G5's. Some G5's are far too reliant on body-bag games.

(04-06-2020 04:03 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  

(04-06-2020 03:53 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(04-06-2020 03:36 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  None of these combinations will happen. There are not enough financial or competitive benefits for all parties involved to realigning. As much as some want more geographically friendly conferences, the P5's are not going to allow the NCAA to create an incentive for G5 realignment. They would much rather watch smaller programs struggle financially and drop out of the FBS. I've said it before... Every year it is getting more expensive to play at the FBS level, and some programs won't be able to keep up. This is how the P5 thin the herd actually without forcing programs out.

The P5 schools like having the G5 schools around for buy games.

Yeah, I don't think the P5 have any actual interest in killing off the G5 or seeing programs drop down. They've sufficiently ensured the G5 are no threat to P5 dominance, and they've pretty much eliminated most every non-power conference from getting multiple NCAA tournament bids. I don't see why they'd care at this point one way or the other.

The realignment to geographically sensible conferences (like the MAC is) generates both significant savings on the travel side, and it generates fan interest. With the minuscule TV contracts that CUSA and the SBC have, ticket sales remain the primary financial driver (after student fees anyway). That means you need to have games that interest casual fans to buy tickets.

Whatever Louisiana Tech may think about being a superior program to ULL/ULM, there's no team in CUSA other than maybe Southern Miss that is going to drive fan interest at LT like games with those in-state teams. Attendance will be up from LT fans and from visiting fans.

That same thought basically applies across a lot of these schools. Is it better for UNT to play Texas State or to play FIU when you are trying to maximize ticket sales? For Charlotte to play Rice or to play App State? UAB would benefit from Troy/USA as well as Georgia State on the schedule.

There's too much thinking from some programs that this is a zero sum game. It's not, and by banding together, they will generate themselves a stronger competitive position.

I believe the P5 does want to thin the G5 herd, but not completely eliminate the G5.

This is something I posted in another thread

TrueBlueDrew Wrote:
I could see a scenario where conferences dissolve and 12 team conferences of SBC east+CUSA east and SBC west+CUSA west form. A lot needs to happen before that though.

This might work, eh?

Sun Belt to C-USA

Arkansas State
Louisiana - Monroe
Louisiana - Lafayette
Texas State

C-USA to Sun Belt

Marshall
Middle Tennessee
Charlotte
Western Kentucky
ODU
UAB

That would leave two 12-team football conferences:

C-USA

Arkansas State
Texas State
UNT
Rice
UTEP
UTSA
UL-Monroe
UL-Lafayette
LA-Tech
FAU
FIU
Southern Miss

Sun Belt

Marshall
Middle Tennessee
Western Kentucky
ODU
App State
Charlotte
Coastal Carolina
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
USA
UAB
Troy

A few things about this 1 the sunbelt is happy with our conference, of the two conferences the only schools not happy are C-USA East teams and mostly ODU does the most complaining. 2 why would the Alabama teams be in the sunbelt and Florida school be in C-USA that doesn’t makes sense. Also I know for a fact some of the Sunbelt West teams will not be in the same conference as C-USA West teams and will go independent and or form a 3rd conference. 4 how do we know a more central conference wouldn’t form with something like and leave the schools in the east and the west on an island.

South
Louisiana
Rice
Southern Miss.
South Alabama
Troy

North
Louisiana Tech
Arkansas State
Middle Tennessee
Western Kentucky
Missouri State or UAB

I'd like to see something like this

Marshall
Appalachian State
Charlotte
Coastal Carolina
Georgia State
Georgia Southern
Arkansas State
UAB
Troy
Southern Miss
Louisiana
Louisiana Tech

(04-06-2020 10:11 PM)CheckYosef94 Wrote:  I'd like to see something like this

Marshall
Appalachian State
Charlotte
Coastal Carolina
Georgia State
Georgia Southern
Arkansas State
UAB
Troy
Southern Miss
Louisiana
Louisiana Tech

I second this

(04-06-2020 10:11 PM)CheckYosef94 Wrote:  I'd like to see something like this

Marshall
Appalachian State
Charlotte
Coastal Carolina
Georgia State
Georgia Southern
Arkansas State
UAB
Troy
Southern Miss
Louisiana
Louisiana Tech

I think this could be appealing in some ways, but it raises some questions:

If the conferences are going to realign, what is the goal? If it is to save money on travel and reduce missed class time, especially for the Olympic sports, why is the league still stretching from the Carolinas and West Virginia to Louisiana? That is only a slight improvement for Sun Belt schools over stretching from the Carolinas to Texas.

Is the goal just to increase fan interest/ticket sales? Is it to improve the TV contract? (Frankly, I don't see any alignment helping schools in these two leagues to strike it rich.)

If, as I said, a change is going to originate from a C-USA eastern exodus, the farthest west I see the eastern league going would be Southern Miss. More likely, it would be just to Alabama.

(04-06-2020 11:13 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(04-06-2020 10:11 PM)CheckYosef94 Wrote:  I'd like to see something like this

Marshall
Appalachian State
Charlotte
Coastal Carolina
Georgia State
Georgia Southern
Arkansas State
UAB
Troy
Southern Miss
Louisiana
Louisiana Tech

I think this could be appealing in some ways, but it raises some questions:

If the conferences are going to realign, what is the goal? If it is to save money on travel and reduce missed class time, especially for the Olympic sports, why is the league still stretching from the Carolinas and West Virginia to Louisiana? That is only a slight improvement for Sun Belt schools over stretching from the Carolinas to Texas.

Is the goal just to increase fan interest/ticket sales? Is it to improve the TV contract? (Frankly, I don't see any alignment helping schools in these two leagues to strike it rich.)

If, as I said, a change is going to originate from a C-USA eastern exodus, the farthest west I see the eastern league going would be Southern Miss. More likely, it would be just to Alabama.

I’ve always said this, if you want a bus league or a short travel league...go to FCS.

(04-06-2020 11:21 PM)Cajuns1252 Wrote:  

(04-06-2020 11:13 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(04-06-2020 10:11 PM)CheckYosef94 Wrote:  I'd like to see something like this

Marshall
Appalachian State
Charlotte
Coastal Carolina
Georgia State
Georgia Southern
Arkansas State
UAB
Troy
Southern Miss
Louisiana
Louisiana Tech

I think this could be appealing in some ways, but it raises some questions:

If the conferences are going to realign, what is the goal? If it is to save money on travel and reduce missed class time, especially for the Olympic sports, why is the league still stretching from the Carolinas and West Virginia to Louisiana? That is only a slight improvement for Sun Belt schools over stretching from the Carolinas to Texas.

Is the goal just to increase fan interest/ticket sales? Is it to improve the TV contract? (Frankly, I don't see any alignment helping schools in these two leagues to strike it rich.)

If, as I said, a change is going to originate from a C-USA eastern exodus, the farthest west I see the eastern league going would be Southern Miss. More likely, it would be just to Alabama.

I’ve always said this, if you want a bus league or a short travel league...go to FCS.

But things have changed. G5's are going to get hit hard, REALLY hard, by the losses avout to come with COVID 19. It would be irresponsible for AD's and presidents not to look at how they can save money at a time like this, including conference affiliation.