no

(10-07-2022 05:38 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2022 07:10 PM)Bull Wrote:  

(10-06-2022 04:26 PM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  Every league is already too big.

We need 10 team regional conferences.

Sorry, and old-timer venting here.

You are absolutely right...

A 20-24 team monstrosity is just two conferences stuck together anyway... IDC what they call it...

Maybe someday it will cycle around again and we'll see 'split' of some of these...

I think that is a real possibility. IMO, once you get to 16 schools, like the B1G and SEC will be at, you theoretically have two eight-school football conferences gestating inside you. Over time, these two might decide to hive-off from each other.

Taking the SEC as a case: That is one reason why I believed the SEC should not expand beyond 14 schools. Now, I know that you can't turn down Texas and Oklahoma, but nevertheless, there is that danger.

Also, IMO the SEC would be wise to not add any more Big 12 schools in the future, because if you add schools from a particular region, they are IMO more likely to be a hive-off threat down the road. E.g., I could see a scenario after which "using" the SEC to regain strength, the old Big 12 schools - Missouri, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and TAMU - decide they are too culturally dissimilar with the "southeast" schools and hive-off.

In that regard, I think the B1G is safer, as its expansion targets over the past 10-12 years - Rutgers, MD, UNL, USC and UCLA - are more scattered, there is no critical mass from a particular region that could form a hive-off nucleus.

Once a conference gets that big, I would also avoid creating (or keeping) divisions, especially based on geography, as these divisions are in effect two separate conferences-in-waiting. Better to abandon divisions and mix up the schedules among all the members. Again, the SEC seems more vulnerable to that IMO than the B1G.

That's a lot of verbiage-spill to say I agree with you, and really, think the threat of splits and hive-offs is present even before we reach the 20- or 24- team thresholds. I think the B1G and SEC are already at that point.

Of course, these hive-offs would not necessarily be a bad thing, they are only bad if one thinks the whole big gang of a conference should stay together, and individual schools or configurations may not believe this is in their interest.

Agree, another reason why I think the BIG is unlikely to expand further with four additional pac12 schools. Essentially, they would be creating a western conference within the conference that could easily split off. David Shaw openly said the the pac12 schools will get back together in the future.

I guess he could add the bottom of the MWC if they are left behind after PAC takes 2/3 of Mwc to stay alive.

(10-07-2022 10:55 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I guess he could add the bottom of the MWC if they are left behind after PAC takes 2/3 of Mwc to stay alive.

Sure, but then that begs the question of why would the AAC want to do that?

IMO, there are only a small number of MW schools that would move the AAC value meter. Those of course are likely to be the schools scooped up by a rump PAC.

(10-07-2022 07:49 AM)ESE84 Wrote:  

(10-06-2022 03:17 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  If ESPN is shut out of final B1G and has very little western content share of a Big12-16, would ESPN pay this AAC $250 - $270 (maybe more!?) per year (average)….

$$$West Div$$$
Gonzaga/AirForce
Washington State
Oregon State
Boise State
Fresno State
San Diego State
UNLV
Colorado State

$$$Central Div$$$
Wichita/Army
Tulsa
SMU
North Texas
UT-San Antonio
Rice
Tulane
Memphis

$$$East Div$$$
VCU/Navy
Temple
East Carolina
UNC Charlotte
UA Birmingham
Georgia State
South Florida
Florida Atlantic

24 AAC
20 BigTen *will be 24 down the road
16 SEC *will be 20-24 down the road
16 Big12 *prob be 20-24 down the road
ACC and Pac are history and we have a P4 and a G3 left over…12 team playoff with 5 conf champs + 7 at larges.

I see 8 WAC-16 schools there who would all be leery of creating something like this. AAC may be opportunistic if MWC instability causes Air Force and Colorado State to look toward the AAC. But I doubt the AAC schools have the appetite for this truly “American” coast to coast conference.

And hate to break it to him, but he needs to swap Tooolame with Navy, because if you don't put Navy in at least the central division (if not the West division), they may decide to just leave the conference and go indy again. They have made that pretty clear, even upon entering the conference.

(10-07-2022 08:03 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2022 07:13 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(10-06-2022 05:11 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2022 02:40 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  I’ve heard zero rumors on this. And I think it would depend on if ESPN wants more late window content.

But if ESPN doesn’t get any PAC content. Or splits the very little western content the Big12 might have (should the 4C schools go to Big12). Then would ESPN rather have the best MW teams join AAC?

Seems Aresco is on the aggressive side like Yormark. Just not as boisterous about it. So I can see something like this boil up around the time the new Big12 tv contract’s ink dries in a couple years.

I don't see why any western schools worth having would want to join the AAC.

But maybe we'll see.

If the PAC mostly holds together (but, let’s say peels away one-to-thee MwC’s… I could definitely see a couple Colorado schools (csu/afa) heading to AAC. And if they are coming… then a couple west coast teams could come along also (fresno/sdsu) if they don’t get plucked by pac first.

The pac will not disappear even if it “implodes”.

OK, if the scenario unfolds that the PAC strips the MW of its top two or three schools, then I agree the AAC could be appealing to other MW schools.

Of course, since the PAC will be taking the top MW schools, one has to wonder if there will be any MW left-behinds that add value to the AAC.

As we have learned, it is not ALL value as a particular school. It is ALSO content. Western time zone content. If ESPN ends up with no "last time slot" games, Aresco says... "welllllll..... we'll take the teams you want, shoooah. What are friends for? but it's gonna cost ya..."

(10-07-2022 08:03 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2022 07:13 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(10-06-2022 05:11 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2022 02:40 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  I’ve heard zero rumors on this. And I think it would depend on if ESPN wants more late window content.

But if ESPN doesn’t get any PAC content. Or splits the very little western content the Big12 might have (should the 4C schools go to Big12). Then would ESPN rather have the best MW teams join AAC?

Seems Aresco is on the aggressive side like Yormark. Just not as boisterous about it. So I can see something like this boil up around the time the new Big12 tv contract’s ink dries in a couple years.

I don't see why any western schools worth having would want to join the AAC.

But maybe we'll see.

If the PAC mostly holds together (but, let’s say peels away one-to-thee MwC’s… I could definitely see a couple Colorado schools (csu/afa) heading to AAC. And if they are coming… then a couple west coast teams could come along also (fresno/sdsu) if they don’t get plucked by pac first.

The pac will not disappear even if it “implodes”.

OK, if the scenario unfolds that the PAC strips the MW of its top two or three schools, then I agree the AAC could be appealing to other MW schools.

Of course, since the PAC will be taking the top MW schools, one has to wonder if there will be any MW left-behinds that add value to the AAC.

Isn't the AAC still a designated G-5 conference? Why do most of you think that MWC and other G-5s would even be interested in joining the AAC? I know ithere is more TV money, but the travelling expenses would be too expensive for most of the schools y'all mention.

(10-07-2022 10:55 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I guess he could add the bottom of the MWC if they are left behind after PAC takes 2/3 of Mwc to stay alive.

Make grab New Mexico to bookend with Charlotte?

(10-06-2022 04:26 PM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  Every league is already too big.

We need 10 team regional conferences.

Sorry, and old-timer venting here.

Agree with this.

(10-06-2022 08:02 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(10-06-2022 07:25 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(10-06-2022 07:14 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(10-06-2022 02:40 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  I’ve heard zero rumors on this. And I think it would depend on if ESPN wants more late window content.

But if ESPN doesn’t get any PAC content. Or splits the very little western content the Big12 might have (should the 4C schools go to Big12). Then would ESPN rather have the best MW teams join AAC?

Seems Aresco is on the aggressive side like Yormark. Just not as boisterous about it. So I can see something like this boil up around the time the new Big12 tv contract’s ink dries in a couple years.

Aresco isn't aggressive. The AAC failed to replace UConn during his tenure, and Aresco failed in his 3 attempts to persuade MWC teams (Air Force, Boise St., & CSU) to join the AAC. The only school Aresco brought into the AAC was Wichita State - a non-FB school, and that was back in 2017.

Being aggressive and failing aren't one of the same. He was aggressive in pursuing the MWC schools, he just wasn't able to close the deal. Aresco was also smart in not replacing UConn and inviting Wichita St (although the MVC is better now than when Wich St was there).

Not only was Aresco NOT aggressive. He openly announced that he wasn't going to make the first move to replace UConn. Any school that wanted to join the AAC had to contact him to initiate a conversation.

When he finally did try to add some MWC schools, he failed in each case.

Aresco has been the Commissioner since 2014, and in that entire time, he brought in one non-football school. The CUSA6 were brought in not by Aresco, but by ESPN, which insisted on adding 6 schools from the CUSA.

As I see it, he's "all hat and no cattle."

Moreover, the AAC has never shown any interest in having more than 12 schools, and it now has 14. For that reason, it seems unlikely that it will expand any further - - unless ESPN insists on it (e.g., if Memphis & SMU join the Big 12).

.

You have this completely ass backwards. The presidents/chancellors tell the commissioner what they want collectively. The give the orders, he tries to execute them. They wanted CSU, AFA, and BSU, it didn't pan out because of ESPN.

In other words, it is Aresco's job to provide options to the leadership and their job to approve or disapprove those options. He is not an independent actor.

(10-07-2022 12:10 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(10-07-2022 08:03 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2022 07:13 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(10-06-2022 05:11 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2022 02:40 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  I’ve heard zero rumors on this. And I think it would depend on if ESPN wants more late window content.

But if ESPN doesn’t get any PAC content. Or splits the very little western content the Big12 might have (should the 4C schools go to Big12). Then would ESPN rather have the best MW teams join AAC?

Seems Aresco is on the aggressive side like Yormark. Just not as boisterous about it. So I can see something like this boil up around the time the new Big12 tv contract’s ink dries in a couple years.

I don't see why any western schools worth having would want to join the AAC.

But maybe we'll see.

If the PAC mostly holds together (but, let’s say peels away one-to-thee MwC’s… I could definitely see a couple Colorado schools (csu/afa) heading to AAC. And if they are coming… then a couple west coast teams could come along also (fresno/sdsu) if they don’t get plucked by pac first.

The pac will not disappear even if it “implodes”.

OK, if the scenario unfolds that the PAC strips the MW of its top two or three schools, then I agree the AAC could be appealing to other MW schools.

Of course, since the PAC will be taking the top MW schools, one has to wonder if there will be any MW left-behinds that add value to the AAC.

As we have learned, it is not ALL value as a particular school. It is ALSO content. Western time zone content. If ESPN ends up with no "last time slot" games, Aresco says... "welllllll..... we'll take the teams you want, shoooah. What are friends for? but it's gonna cost ya..."

I am not sure ESPN will ever be desperate enough for late-night content to give the AAC more money to televise USF vs New Mexico and ECU vs San Jose State games.

But maybe we'll see.

(10-07-2022 02:30 PM)JoeJag Wrote:  

(10-07-2022 08:03 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2022 07:13 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(10-06-2022 05:11 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-06-2022 02:40 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  I’ve heard zero rumors on this. And I think it would depend on if ESPN wants more late window content.

But if ESPN doesn’t get any PAC content. Or splits the very little western content the Big12 might have (should the 4C schools go to Big12). Then would ESPN rather have the best MW teams join AAC?

Seems Aresco is on the aggressive side like Yormark. Just not as boisterous about it. So I can see something like this boil up around the time the new Big12 tv contract’s ink dries in a couple years.

I don't see why any western schools worth having would want to join the AAC.

But maybe we'll see.

If the PAC mostly holds together (but, let’s say peels away one-to-thee MwC’s… I could definitely see a couple Colorado schools (csu/afa) heading to AAC. And if they are coming… then a couple west coast teams could come along also (fresno/sdsu) if they don’t get plucked by pac first.

The pac will not disappear even if it “implodes”.

OK, if the scenario unfolds that the PAC strips the MW of its top two or three schools, then I agree the AAC could be appealing to other MW schools.

Of course, since the PAC will be taking the top MW schools, one has to wonder if there will be any MW left-behinds that add value to the AAC.

Isn't the AAC still a designated G-5 conference? Why do most of you think that MWC and other G-5s would even be interested in joining the AAC? I know ithere is more TV money, but the travelling expenses would be too expensive for most of the schools y'all mention.

I think the situation being contemplated is that the top MW schools have left for a re-forming PAC, leaving the remainder in a precarious situation. In that case, an AAC invite would IMO likely be welcome to those schools. The value to the AAC is IMO very questionable though.