(02-07-2023 09:57 PM)KnightLife Wrote:  AAC will probably go after Georgia St and Army again If they still want to chase after big markets or they can go after success like Liberty who has great facilities or Coastal Carolina/WKU/MTSU

None of the above.

Colorado State and Air Force contemplated jumping to the AAC when the MWC was at full strength. They are almost certain to make the move to the AAC if SDSU and another MWC school leave for the PAC12.

Congratulations SMU on making it back into a "power" conference. Us UH fans know your pain. I expect the Mustangs to be very successful in the Pac.

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(02-08-2023 02:54 AM)Adler Wrote:  https://www.si.com/college/byu/football/...-expansion

This would be a good deal for SMU if the easily predictable weren't going to happen. USC and UCLA likely aren't going to the BIG10 alone, and any further PAC defections are going to cause the 4 Corners schools to bolt to the BIG12. Washington, Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and Arizona State may all be leaving before the time SMU would get in. Oregon State and Washington State would be the only remnants of the former P-5 conference. The decimated PAC schools will be forced to align with the MWC schools just to survive.

I'm not trying to be a downer, but this is the most likely scenario.

That's honestly what will probably happen down the road. The big 10 and sec will expand especially when the acc gor can be messed with. Has 12 years or so left but I bet we get movement before that.

But a new mwc/pac12 is smu worst case scenario. I see this as them getting a leg up of getting into one of the tier 2 conferences down the road which will be the acc and big 12

FSU, Clemson, unc, uva etc will be in the big 10 or sec. Same as Washington, Stanford, cal, Oregon, Notre Dame and some others

SMU has the market and some history. They can get into the best of the rest type conferences after the sec and big 10 down the road. Cincy and ucf could very well be in the lesser acc when this shakes out too

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i've always thought if this happened then the conference could pick up arkansas state to fill the gap between tulsa and memphis and southern mississippi. create a regional center until the conference can regroup.

(02-08-2023 02:56 AM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  

(02-08-2023 02:08 AM)sunamiwave Wrote:  It really hurts that Tulane has not received a P5 invite yet. The only P5 school located in Louisiana is LSU. Our next door neighbor, Texas, has numerous P5 schools. Seems like the NY6 Cotton Bowl win and being the top G5 football program this past season along with retaining Coach Willie Fritz would have helped Tulane get a P5 invite. Also men’s basketball is improved and currently in second place in the AAC after Houston. Hopefully Tulane is in the next group of schools that get a P5 invite. It’s hard to see so many schools leave the conference and not be included just as we are achieving great things athletically especially in football.

Good luck! I don’t think ECU has a shot, even if they were the top G5 school in football. I believe our academic rankings would hold us back. And our basketball program has been pretty much irrelevant. Those two things need to improve a lot. I think our best shot would be the Big12 if the basketball program got going. The AAC is our home for the foreseeable future.

I knew it was curtains for us when Houston got picked up, and SMU now talked about, ahead of Memphis. Memphis has done everything they were supposed to do in order to get an invite, and are still here. If they are locked out, we're toast. Markets above all else yet again.

(02-07-2023 09:57 PM)KnightLife Wrote:  

(02-07-2023 09:41 PM)otown Wrote:  Congrats SMU! Looks like you may be getting that invite to a P5 after all. PAC commissioner visiting your campus.

So if SMU bows out, AAC losing DFW media market. What is the next move? Hold steady or find a replacement? Will ESPN continue to hold the media deal steady for original AAC members?

AAC will probably go after Georgia St and Army again If they still want to chase after big markets or they can go after success like Liberty who has great facilities or Coastal Carolina/WKU/MTSU

I'm guessing that we added so many teams anticipating further attrition. For that reason, I think we hold tight.

If we did add someone, seems like Ga. State would be the pick. A bunch of us recruit Georgia/Atlanta pretty heavily. While they don't pull the eyeballs in the area just yet, you still have the opportunity to sit in a living room and tell a kid's mom that she can watch her son play in town every other year.

(02-07-2023 10:11 PM)Kandy Atz Wrote:  Oddly enough, Denton is considered part of DFW. And is the only football option after SMU and TCU, unless UTA or UTD decide to start football teams.

I don’t think UTD wants to take money away from their chess program to start up a football program. Whooosh!

(02-08-2023 07:16 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(02-07-2023 09:57 PM)KnightLife Wrote:  

(02-07-2023 09:41 PM)otown Wrote:  Congrats SMU! Looks like you may be getting that invite to a P5 after all. PAC commissioner visiting your campus.

So if SMU bows out, AAC losing DFW media market. What is the next move? Hold steady or find a replacement? Will ESPN continue to hold the media deal steady for original AAC members?

AAC will probably go after Georgia St and Army again If they still want to chase after big markets or they can go after success like Liberty who has great facilities or Coastal Carolina/WKU/MTSU

I'm guessing that we added so many teams anticipating further attrition. For that reason, I think we hold tight.

If we did add someone, seems like Ga. State would be the pick. A bunch of us recruit Georgia/Atlanta pretty heavily. While they don't pull the eyeballs in the area just yet, you still have the opportunity to sit in a living room and tell a kid's mom that she can watch her son play in town every other year.

Could be the case

Honestly as I said above, there's a bunch of temporary band aids being done right now.

Ultimately the SEC and Big 10 are going to get bigger and take their picks and they will be the top 2 conferences

I suspect the acc and big 12 will be next

I honestly think the pac/mwc and AAC will come after that

SMU is probably going to the PAC temporarily as they could make the acc or big 12. I can see Cincy , ucf, west Virginia etc in the acc once it's pillaged by the big 2

Sun Belt and MAC will stay regional conferences and they want that.

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(02-08-2023 07:41 AM)Ragu Wrote:  

(02-08-2023 07:16 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(02-07-2023 09:57 PM)KnightLife Wrote:  

(02-07-2023 09:41 PM)otown Wrote:  Congrats SMU! Looks like you may be getting that invite to a P5 after all. PAC commissioner visiting your campus.

So if SMU bows out, AAC losing DFW media market. What is the next move? Hold steady or find a replacement? Will ESPN continue to hold the media deal steady for original AAC members?

AAC will probably go after Georgia St and Army again If they still want to chase after big markets or they can go after success like Liberty who has great facilities or Coastal Carolina/WKU/MTSU

I'm guessing that we added so many teams anticipating further attrition. For that reason, I think we hold tight.

If we did add someone, seems like Ga. State would be the pick. A bunch of us recruit Georgia/Atlanta pretty heavily. While they don't pull the eyeballs in the area just yet, you still have the opportunity to sit in a living room and tell a kid's mom that she can watch her son play in town every other year.

Could be the case

Honestly as I said above, there's a bunch of temporary band aids being done right now.

Ultimately the SEC and Big 10 are going to get bigger and take their picks and they will be the top 2 conferences

I suspect the acc and big 12 will be next

I honestly think the pac/mwc and AAC will come after that

SMU is probably going to the PAC temporarily as they could make the acc or big 12. I can see Cincy , ucf, west Virginia etc in the acc once it's pillaged by the big 2

Sun Belt and MAC will stay regional conferences and they want that.

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This is the second post on this thread that talks about UCF or Cincy joining a pillaged ACC and I really have a hard time grasping that lunacy. The current Big 12 now has a media deal that is close to the ACC, maybe a little less. A pillaged ACC would have a pillaged media deal, most likely way less than the Big 12. In addition to that a pillaged ACC would have nowhere near the basketball and football product of the Big 12. There ain't no way anyone from the Big 12 is moving to a pillaged ACC.

(02-08-2023 12:02 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  Tulane turned the corner too late.

This hurts worse than the euphoria from the Cotton Bowl win.

We’ll be ok. Keep doing what you are doing, and I hope Rice keeps investing. Both need to be ready when the ACC is looking for new markets.

(02-08-2023 08:10 AM)otown Wrote:  

(02-08-2023 07:41 AM)Ragu Wrote:  

(02-08-2023 07:16 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(02-07-2023 09:57 PM)KnightLife Wrote:  

(02-07-2023 09:41 PM)otown Wrote:  Congrats SMU! Looks like you may be getting that invite to a P5 after all. PAC commissioner visiting your campus.

So if SMU bows out, AAC losing DFW media market. What is the next move? Hold steady or find a replacement? Will ESPN continue to hold the media deal steady for original AAC members?

AAC will probably go after Georgia St and Army again If they still want to chase after big markets or they can go after success like Liberty who has great facilities or Coastal Carolina/WKU/MTSU

I'm guessing that we added so many teams anticipating further attrition. For that reason, I think we hold tight.

If we did add someone, seems like Ga. State would be the pick. A bunch of us recruit Georgia/Atlanta pretty heavily. While they don't pull the eyeballs in the area just yet, you still have the opportunity to sit in a living room and tell a kid's mom that she can watch her son play in town every other year.

Could be the case

Honestly as I said above, there's a bunch of temporary band aids being done right now.

Ultimately the SEC and Big 10 are going to get bigger and take their picks and they will be the top 2 conferences

I suspect the acc and big 12 will be next

I honestly think the pac/mwc and AAC will come after that

SMU is probably going to the PAC temporarily as they could make the acc or big 12. I can see Cincy , ucf, west Virginia etc in the acc once it's pillaged by the big 2

Sun Belt and MAC will stay regional conferences and they want that.

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This is the second post on this thread that talks about UCF or Cincy joining a pillaged ACC and I really have a hard time grasping that lunacy. The current Big 12 now has a media deal that is close to the ACC, maybe a little less. A pillaged ACC would have a pillaged media deal, most likely way less than the Big 12. In addition to that a pillaged ACC would have nowhere near the basketball and football product of the Big 12. There ain't no way anyone from the Big 12 is moving to a pillaged ACC.

That depends. There's a bunch of teams a lot closer to Cincy and wvu in the acc. Now if the acc loses 8 teams I'd agree. If they lose 4, I think it's very possible

Also you are assuming the big 12 loses none too. Both the acc and big 12 could lose some and then the east coast could be appealing

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Im just gonna burn my Tulsa degree and go full blown Ponyfail

Denton is stupid and full of pronoun bio gender studies fails

They bring about as much to DFw eyeballs as rice does to Houston

We’re about to get a major pay cut

Doompill for lyphe

Congrats to SMU for their serious P5 interest (at the least).

The interest, I speculate, persuaded wealthy SMU fans to open up their wallets and fund the recent rocketing recruiting/transfer rankings.

(02-08-2023 08:28 AM)Ragu Wrote:  

(02-08-2023 08:10 AM)otown Wrote:  

(02-08-2023 07:41 AM)Ragu Wrote:  

(02-08-2023 07:16 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(02-07-2023 09:57 PM)KnightLife Wrote:  AAC will probably go after Georgia St and Army again If they still want to chase after big markets or they can go after success like Liberty who has great facilities or Coastal Carolina/WKU/MTSU

I'm guessing that we added so many teams anticipating further attrition. For that reason, I think we hold tight.

If we did add someone, seems like Ga. State would be the pick. A bunch of us recruit Georgia/Atlanta pretty heavily. While they don't pull the eyeballs in the area just yet, you still have the opportunity to sit in a living room and tell a kid's mom that she can watch her son play in town every other year.

Could be the case

Honestly as I said above, there's a bunch of temporary band aids being done right now.

Ultimately the SEC and Big 10 are going to get bigger and take their picks and they will be the top 2 conferences

I suspect the acc and big 12 will be next

I honestly think the pac/mwc and AAC will come after that

SMU is probably going to the PAC temporarily as they could make the acc or big 12. I can see Cincy , ucf, west Virginia etc in the acc once it's pillaged by the big 2

Sun Belt and MAC will stay regional conferences and they want that.

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This is the second post on this thread that talks about UCF or Cincy joining a pillaged ACC and I really have a hard time grasping that lunacy. The current Big 12 now has a media deal that is close to the ACC, maybe a little less. A pillaged ACC would have a pillaged media deal, most likely way less than the Big 12. In addition to that a pillaged ACC would have nowhere near the basketball and football product of the Big 12. There ain't no way anyone from the Big 12 is moving to a pillaged ACC.

That depends. There's a bunch of teams a lot closer to Cincy and wvu in the acc. Now if the acc loses 8 teams I'd agree. If they lose 4, I think it's very possible

Also you are assuming the big 12 loses none too. Both the acc and big 12 could lose some and then the east coast could be appealing

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Once the ACC is cracked open, it's open season for the B1G and SEC. I just don't see those conferences expanding beyond the top of the ACC and the PAC.....maybe Kansas for the B1G, but theu take a back seat to Oregon, Washington, FSU, Clemson, UNC, Duke, Virginia etc

The mwc should move to take UTSA tulsa Memphis and Tulane and end this stupid conference once and for all

Or just leave tulsa to die and eventually move back to valley

The success of the AAC in the future is going to come off the backs of Memphis, UAB, ECU, and usf. SMU leaving doesn't change that, and tbh if I were an SMU fan, I would be very careful hitching your wagon to the PAC-12 that will inevitably lose OU-UW-UA-ASU-CU and possibly UU, Stanford and Cal.

Strong likelihood to be caught in a WAC 2.0 scenario with a hodge-podge of MWC backfill and front range misfits.

AAC might be better off without SMU, if that is the only program that leaves. I know Sun Belt people are very happy with their conference, but you have to imagine the AAC still has the leverage of their pick of the programs. Build the conference geographically in between Texas and North Carolina.

EDIT: Georgia State, USA, Coastal? Some MAC programs?

(02-08-2023 07:16 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(02-07-2023 09:57 PM)KnightLife Wrote:  

(02-07-2023 09:41 PM)otown Wrote:  Congrats SMU! Looks like you may be getting that invite to a P5 after all. PAC commissioner visiting your campus.

So if SMU bows out, AAC losing DFW media market. What is the next move? Hold steady or find a replacement? Will ESPN continue to hold the media deal steady for original AAC members?

AAC will probably go after Georgia St and Army again If they still want to chase after big markets or they can go after success like Liberty who has great facilities or Coastal Carolina/WKU/MTSU

I'm guessing that we added so many teams anticipating further attrition. For that reason, I think we hold tight.

If we did add someone, seems like Ga. State would be the pick. A bunch of us recruit Georgia/Atlanta pretty heavily. While they don't pull the eyeballs in the area just yet, you still have the opportunity to sit in a living room and tell a kid's mom that she can watch her son play in town every other year.

Right.
Standing at 13 is definitely an option. The best option depending on a couple variables, and near the top of the list regardless.
We don't need an even 14 because we're divisionless.
If anything, 13 changes the math slightly for frequency of playing the other 12.
I agree that going to fourteen included being able to absorb the next defection. (I personally think that reason lagged behind 1 keeping the contract whole and 2 blocking the mwc in Texas - which was about competition today and also about the "next round")

Going after a replacement - I think a lot depends on what the PAC is taking from the mwc. If they are significantly weakened, that AF/CSU move might make sense. I don't see losing SDSU alone doing that.

What's the downside of staying at 13? Maybe now that small adjustment to the contract comes. Bit we still deliver more inventory at 13 than we did at 11. If the total value was the same after the last subtractions and additions, then it is still at least 91% of the value if we lose SMU. ESPN can't really point to any numbers that say SMU has outsized value, greater than 1/14th of the media

Plan A should always be check with Boise State to see if they are willing to jump to AAC.
Plan B is Air Force, Colorado State, aka your more generic MWC teams.

I wonder at what point a full merge with the MWC would be worthwhile? Expanded CFP takes Top 6 champions, surely a merged AAC/MWC is a Top6 league.

(02-08-2023 08:41 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  The success of the AAC in the future is going to come off the backs of Memphis, UAB, ECU, and usf. SMU leaving doesn't change that, and tbh if I were an SMU fan, I would be very careful hitching your wagon to the PAC-12 that will inevitably lose OU-UW-UA-ASU-CU and possibly UU, Stanford and Cal.

Strong likelihood to be caught in a WAC 2.0 scenario with a hodge-podge of MWC backfill and front range misfits.

AAC might be better off without SMU, if that is the only program that leaves. I know Sun Belt people are very happy with their conference, but you have to imagine the AAC still has the leverage of their pick of the programs. Build the conference geographically in between Texas and North Carolina.

EDIT: Georgia State, USA, Coastal? Some MAC programs?

SMU doesn’t have a choice. If the PAC invite comes they have to take it. If the PAC is decimated in five years then figure that problem out in five years.