(02-27-2023 01:35 AM)Skyhawk Wrote: (02-27-2023 12:59 AM)JRsec Wrote: (02-27-2023 12:45 AM)Skyhawk Wrote: (02-27-2023 12:09 AM)JRsec Wrote: (02-26-2023 11:41 PM)Gitanole Wrote: This post is beneath you. Sorry.
Eric J Barron was Florida State University' s president. Dr Barron set the university on its present course of academic rise, warded off a downgrade threat to Florida's public universities from the statehouse, got Florida State recognised as on one then two preeminent universities, and set AAU membership as a goal.
Between Maryland's ACC departure, athletes' self-made fiascos, and local yahoos clamouring to join the B12 because Dude WV rumours, Dr Barron had plenty of headaches to deal with. You can rest assured that any agreements he made with ACC partners were for Florida State University's benefit and based upon the best options available at the time.
Gentlemen's agreements among presidents don't exist everywhere fans think they do, but they do exist. If Dr Barron agreed to a grant of rights because of a singular opportunity to create a conference network thanks to the participation of Notre Dame, it could well be that another agreement is understood: If ND ever wants out of the deal early, ND helps Florida State get out, too. That's conjecture, but plausible. University presidents occupy a small club where much depends on building relationships with each other. Reciprocity is an operating principle.
Dr Barron went on to become president of Penn State and last time I looked he's still on the faculty there. Florida State has high academic rankings today and a friend in the B1G Ten.
FYI to all.
There are a variety of ways to play this. Notre Dame departing to the Big 10 could be the go-between for FSU communications with them and could recommend them if a member.
ESPN would be damned reticent to accept that and would drop the hammer on both, so it could be that Notre Dame does all of this to make FSU's threat to leave serious and that leverage gets FSU into the SEC and Notre Dame cover to settle their issues for less. Or it could be that both of their collective knowledge of the events of 2010-2 paint the whole thing in a light unfavorable for ESPN so they do what is necessary to simply get Notre Dame and FSU out without complaint. Markers accepted and cashed in. And that's as far as ESPN goes to assist anything, and that is only if they weren't entirely kosher in their dealings with FSU in the 2010-2 realignment. Or it could be that ND is out or soon to be and simply looks after ND. Florida State plays the marker for leverage to head to the SEC and get GOR cover and everyone else fends for themselves in the ACC. There are likely a few more permutations to work through as well.
Other dots that were hanging in the air are also connecting in my mind so I'll have some things to take care of soon.
As Lucky Jack Aubrey would say, "To the lesser of two weevils!"
Now to the serious side of things, Oklahoma and Texas had options and chose to play closer to home and appease fans. Now more than ever college sports are about to be a wholly consumer driven entity and the most loyal consumers are alumni and the loyal alumni who attend games live locally. The AD and school would be truly in alien corn in the Big 10 and as much as you feel on track for AAU, you aren't there, and Nebraska is an excellent example of a school who found out what being the red headed stepchild in an academic elite is like. They lost their mojo because they lost recruiting grounds, their rivals, and of course their partial qualifiers in state.
So, my question is if you choose the Big 10 are you prepared to go it alone, and be the least among them? Are you prepared to lose games with local rivals and explain to recruits' parents why their travel will be extensive? Texas wasn't prepared for that, and neither was Oklahoma.
I'd like to see you in the SEC but if you head North, it won't be easy, and it absolutely will be less popular outside the academic offices in Tallahassee.
I don't rule this out, and we are at a point where frankly nothing would surprise me either.
Interestingly, if FSU does go to the B10, that's more room for other ACC schools.
I think I read you say that all they need is 8 votes.
Imagine if that's 4 invitees to the SEC and 4 to the B10.
Imagine the following invites:
Big10 - VA, NC, Duke, FSU
SEC - VT, NC state, Clemson, Louisville
And then neither P2 conference needs to go above 20.
Of course this kinda puts the kibosh on PAC schools getting B10 invites, but that was iffy anyway...
Plugging holes Skyhawk isn't about picking brands. It's about relationships. It may make the SEC taking UNC, UVa, Duke, and Georgia Tech more likely than taking Clemson. There are relational strands within the ACC. If Notre Dame and FSU wind up together in the Big 10 that doesn't leave enough room for the collective relationships of the Tobacco Road. It actually clears room for it in the SEC. My concern long range was always that taking F.S.U. especially with Clemson and then trying to land UNC breaks those ties which are important to UNC. Notre Dame is the Big 10 whale. But the Irish want games in Florida Georgia and Texas and it is why they negotiated with Slive for series when they weren't quite sure about the ACC. So the FSU / ND connection passes the sniff test for me. If Notre Dame prefers the Big 10 competition wise they will cover their ass in recruiting exposure.
So the divisions you tossed out quickly need to be rethought because the Big 10 is tugging on a different strand of relations.
I completely agree about relationships between the schools - and not just the athletic departments.
I've talked with you a lot on these boards, so I know you know that I think a lot of these ACC schools could swing in either direction.
I just showed the above example by assigning to the B10 - FSU (due to recent rumors about them nearing an AAU invitation) and three other AAU schools.
It can of course go all sorts of ways.
The point was that if all it takes is 8, I don't think that that's a very difficult threshold to meet.
If the purpose is to take 8 the SEC could do that on its own, the first 4 would add, the second 4 would subtract. That applies for the Big 10. For both of us to dig that ground and come up with 8 isn't as likely, at least not profitably.
I wasn't selling your play with this short, it's just the mix hit me as awkward.
Let's go back to a previous one I played with. UNC, UVa, Duke, Kansas. Now the SEC covers hoops. What would the Big 10 get? I doubt you take Clemson, FSU, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Pitt? If you are going outside of AAU lines do you make a play for T.C.U.? I don't think so. That's too much deviation from the AAU norm. So you see that mix doesn't work. UNC, Va Tech, Miami, Clemson for the SEC? Notre Dame, UVa, Duke, FSU for the Big 10? Possibilities.
But this has no benefit for ESPN and destroys how they've built their value, so I say it doesn't happen. Yes you'll get Notre Dame, but ESPN's face saving and much more importantly, business model saving move is UNC, FSU, Duke, Virginia to the SEC in a merger but with SEC money for 3, SEC money for Clemson and a bump for Miami and Virginia Tech. It can be handled in house without GOR entanglement, and in whole.
Occam's razor leaves 2 options that make sense. Cut Notre Dame loose. Cut Florida State loose but where the GOR binds them, merge the two, hold your gains if you are ESPN, and pick up anything else you want total control over to the West.
It doesn't require buyouts, keeps both conferences under GOR's, violates no revenue to the SEC or the ACC and adds to those who are demanding remedy, and covers part of that with consolidation of overhead. The answer to any problem is what works best and simplest. This is it.
The other option is to cut both loose and keep the ACC as is, but ESPN looses valuable control over Florida markets if FSU doesn't head to the SEC. I can't see them opting for that unless the Noles have some really good leverage. I think they are due a favor, but not one that size.
And what will Sankey want? The SEC's best defense of the region in terms of efficacy and cost efficiency has been the ACC.
But for the sake of argument let's say ESPN and FOX have conspired to blow up the present conference system, in that case blowing apart the PAC 12 and ACC would be a damn good start to get the Big 10 to abandon its academic adherence and the SEC its regionality. If they did that how long would they hold any trust from any of us?
So after kicking this around for an hour and a bit I think in order these are the likelihoods:
1. ESPN owed FOX a kindness for the 20 million buyout of OU and UT's last year. Finding away to cut the Irish loose more economically could be in the cards. I don't think ESPN gives up control of the Florida market for it.
2. Moving FSU and anyone else from the ACC to the SEC could make excusing N.D. for less more likely, so this is feasible.
3. The SEC has no major movement into the ACC beyond FSU and a travel companion and ESPN backfills and makes some economic adjustments there. Duke, North Carolina and Virginia remain and rebuild their conference. Perhaps they pick up Big East all but football members buiding on their strength rather than trying to find awkard fits to cover their weaknesses. Miami and Clemson move over to the SEC when the rebuilding begins in earnest and hoops are enhanced.
4. The SEC stops at 20 with continued emphasis on brand on brand football but with more money in which to invest in hoops.
5. With Notre Dame in house its value covers the completion of the Big 10 move West. Logic tells me USC and UCLA are not lone additions. Stanford, Washington, and perhaps Cal join the Irish. The Big 10 stays coast to coast in an enhanced way. Notre Dame gets to schedule Florida, Florida State, Miami, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Texas, Texas A&M when they desire as do Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. The two super powers play off one another to build the coming rivalry which will drive interest.
6. The Big 12 continues to be the conference that picks up the PAC 12 diaspora. They too grow all but football additions to beef up hoops, after they pick up the PAC 12 remnant.
FOX and ESPN split the two super conferences and the ACC and Big 12 become joint properties. ESPN doesn't mind because all of Florida and essentially Texas remain under their control. South Carolina and essentially Georgia are solidly theirs as well.
North Carolina, Virginia, and the Old Big East schools are shared.
This takes care of the top California schools, UW, and FOX closes control in the Northern Midwest with ND.
7 Why? It's bad business to cut off Cal as the flagship of their state, bad business to break up the Deep South when scheduling can aid with recruiting, and good business to find two worthy hoops homes for mid majors across the country. And it's good business to drive the North vs South rivalry for all its worth. Intermingle them too much and it won't work. All fans buy into a regional identity. Check out your Malinowski and Durkheim if you think totemism and tribal behavior is dead. The concept here is to restore and include, not destroy and confuse. One builds business and interest and the other pisses fans off and turns them off to the sports where change has angered them.
But hey, kudos Gitanole and Skyhawk, and Gamenole because we had some meat to chew on tonight and that's a welcome departure from chasing blog inuendo and press releases, which are usually filler and spin. Or as we call them out our house, BS Souffle's!