(04-16-2023 12:43 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 12:18 PM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  I just thought it would be a fun discussion topic for the realignment board since I didn't see a thread on it. It's no surprise certain ACC teams want out. The debate should be about the GOR and is there a so called loophole of x number of members leave. This isn't to make Swaim seem credible but just to discuss the subject. I could care less who said it. I'm sure teams are exploring their options to see if there is a way out before 2036.

Sent from my LM-G820 using CSNbbs mobile app

We’ve talked about it a LOT already.

I’ve pointed out several times that the Big 12 by-laws actually directly address the message board/sports talk show host lawyer argument of, “If schools don’t like the GOR, then they could just dissolve the league!” The Big 12 makes it clear that anyone that attempts to circumvent the GOR can have their voting rights suspended by the other “disinterested” members (meaning everyone that is NOT trying to leave the league or get around the GOR), which quashes that dissolution vote from ever happening in the first place.

Now, whether the ACC by-laws contain similar language is an open question. However, the ACC GOR agreement essentially matches the Big 12 GOR and the Big 12 by-laws have been public for years where the ACC could have copied them verbatim.

In any event, by-laws are generally written to ensure that schools trying to screw the league CANNOT receive a get out of jail free card.

What there have been too many threads are about EVERYTHING on how ACC schools getting out of the GOR for free on a technicality or legal procedure that have already been addressed by the highest paid law firms in the country. What there is an utter lack of discussion is the one thing that matters: how much can FSU or any other school can afford to buy out the GOR and is that amount worth it compared to the gains they’d get in the Big Ten or SEC?

Just going by average school payouts, the ACC rights for the next 13 is over $400 million per school. Any rational economic actor in the ACC is going to set the GOR buyout at that amount as a *minimum* (and realistically higher for the most valuable schools). I ask in every thread on this topic about whether all of those complaining ACC fans think that their school can afford or is willing to pay that amount and I continue to get crickets. Everyone wants some magical outside force like a legal technicality, dissolution, or ESPN money to save them from a perfectly valid and enforceable contract that neither the bottom half of the ACC nor ESPN itself has ANY rational incentive to even consider prior to around 2030.

I'd say that nobody has any desire to do anything before 2034. The only way 2030 would come into play would be if ESPN acquired all of the B1G in the next contract and they were also convinced that they'd be able to hold onto the SEC in 2034. And even in that situation, ESPN would probably rather keep underpaying FSU/Clemson/perhaps others for a couple years until 2036 rolls around. Remember that once FSU and Clemson are out the door, the value of the ACC contract will tank, while neither is likely to significantly improve the SEC's (or B1G's) value.

(04-16-2023 12:47 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  The ByLaws question would be what super-majority is required to dissolve the ACC. If the prior discussion arrived at 10 schools required to dissolve the conference, I presume that someone hunted that supermajority down and it turned out to be 2/3, where 10 is 2/3 of 15.

The scenario is apparent that 10 or more schools would have to be approached by the P3 and offered expansion bids if (and only if) the ACC is dissolved and GOR is void.
Thus, four schools to the SEC (for example: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and NC State, given that the SEC may not want/need a third FL school at Miami), four to the Big Ten (Virginia, UNC, Pitt, Notre Dame) and up to four to the Big 12 (Louisville, Miami, Syracuse, Virginia Tech) still leaves three schools without a home (BC, Duke, and Wake Forest) and essentially dooms these programs from the top tier.

(04-16-2023 12:47 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 12:41 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  There's a distinction here: eight schools could not "leave" the ACC and void the GOR, but if a majority of ACC schools voted to terminate the conference entirely, the GOR would not longer apply.

Yes, that's the point. If exclusive rights are granted to an entity that ceases to exist, and the rights are not transferred as part of the process of its dissolution, it seems like the rights would revert to the original granting parties.

The ByLaws question would be what super-majority is required to dissolve the ACC. If the prior discussion arrived at 10 schools required to dissolve the conference, I presume that someone hunted that supermajority down and it turned out to be 2/3, where 10 is 2/3 of 15.

The bylaws don't really say. NC law says a majority. But the bylaws give the threshold to amend the bylaws or consitution at 2/3.

I have no idea how that would work out in court -- on the one hand, state law probably trumps an organization's bylaws. On the other hand, dissolution is AT LEAST an amendment. So who knows.

(04-16-2023 12:56 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 12:43 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 12:18 PM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  I just thought it would be a fun discussion topic for the realignment board since I didn't see a thread on it. It's no surprise certain ACC teams want out. The debate should be about the GOR and is there a so called loophole of x number of members leave. This isn't to make Swaim seem credible but just to discuss the subject. I could care less who said it. I'm sure teams are exploring their options to see if there is a way out before 2036.

Sent from my LM-G820 using CSNbbs mobile app

We’ve talked about it a LOT already.

I’ve pointed out several times that the Big 12 by-laws actually directly address the message board/sports talk show host lawyer argument of, “If schools don’t like the GOR, then they could just dissolve the league!” The Big 12 makes it clear that anyone that attempts to circumvent the GOR can have their voting rights suspended by the other “disinterested” members (meaning everyone that is NOT trying to leave the league or get around the GOR), which quashes that dissolution vote from ever happening in the first place.

Now, whether the ACC by-laws contain similar language is an open question. However, the ACC GOR agreement essentially matches the Big 12 GOR and the Big 12 by-laws have been public for years where the ACC could have copied them verbatim.

In any event, by-laws are generally written to ensure that schools trying to screw the league CANNOT receive a get out of jail free card.

What there have been too many threads are about EVERYTHING on how ACC schools getting out of the GOR for free on a technicality or legal procedure that have already been addressed by the highest paid law firms in the country. What there is an utter lack of discussion is the one thing that matters: how much can FSU or any other school can afford to buy out the GOR and is that amount worth it compared to the gains they’d get in the Big Ten or SEC?

Just going by average school payouts, the ACC rights for the next 13 is over $400 million per school. Any rational economic actor in the ACC is going to set the GOR buyout at that amount as a *minimum* (and realistically higher for the most valuable schools). I ask in every thread on this topic about whether all of those complaining ACC fans think that their school can afford or is willing to pay that amount and I continue to get crickets. Everyone wants some magical outside force like a legal technicality, dissolution, or ESPN money to save them from a perfectly valid and enforceable contract that neither the bottom half of the ACC nor ESPN itself has ANY rational incentive to even consider prior to around 2030.

I'd say that nobody has any desire to do anything before 2034. The only way 2030 would come into play would be if ESPN acquired all of the B1G in the next contract and they were also convinced that they'd be able to hold onto the SEC in 2034. And even in that situation, ESPN would probably rather keep underpaying FSU/Clemson/perhaps others for a couple years until 2036 rolls around. Remember that once FSU and Clemson are out the door, the value of the ACC contract will tank, while neither is likely to significantly improve the SEC's (or B1G's) value.

I see it as the UT/OU precedent - they announced they were leaving 4 years prior to the end of the GOR (making it clear in all statements that they’d continue to honor the GOR) and then spent 18 months to eventually negotiate getting out of the GOR a year early.

The ACC GOR is strong now because of the length of time left on it - the thought of paying the equivalent of 13 years of TV rights damages is realistically going to block even the richest schools (like UNC and Duke) from leaving. Eventually, that script flips where the length of time left on the GOR isn’t really an impediment - either the damages become more manageable to get out early or the left behind schools have to consider that if they wait too long, they may miss out on getting any GOR damages from the schools that are leaving.

So, I’ve never thought that an ACC can’t/won’t get out a few years early due to those economic factors. I just think it would never make sense for those that can fully enforce the GOR (the bottom half ACC schools and ESPN) to touch that contract NOW 13 years early. No one cares if they have to hear FSU complain for the next 13 years - if they’re already telegraphing that they’re leaving in 13 years, anyway, then appeasing them is not rational for anyone other than those that are biased in favor of movement from the ACC. Around 2030, though, the negotiating leverage of FSU starts becoming more balanced with the rest of the ACC.

(04-16-2023 01:05 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 12:47 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  The ByLaws question would be what super-majority is required to dissolve the ACC. If the prior discussion arrived at 10 schools required to dissolve the conference, I presume that someone hunted that supermajority down and it turned out to be 2/3, where 10 is 2/3 of 15.

The scenario is apparent that 10 or more schools would have to be approached by the P3 and offered expansion bids if (and only if) the ACC is dissolved and GOR is void.
Thus, four schools to the SEC (for example: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and NC State, given that the SEC may not want/need a third FL school at Miami), four to the Big Ten (Virginia, UNC, Pitt, Notre Dame) and up to four to the Big 12 (Louisville, Miami, Syracuse, Virginia Tech) still leaves three schools without a home (BC, Duke, and Wake Forest) and essentially dooms these programs from the top tier.

Not sure why they're supposed to sign off on this -- ACC has a signed contract through 2036. Big 12's contract only runs through 2031. What happens if cord cutting continues, ESPN has to keep cutting budgets, and Big 12 is asked to take a 50% haircut next contract cycle?

(04-16-2023 12:56 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I'd say that nobody has any desire to do anything before 2034

(04-16-2023 01:12 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 01:05 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 12:47 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  The ByLaws question would be what super-majority is required to dissolve the ACC. If the prior discussion arrived at 10 schools required to dissolve the conference, I presume that someone hunted that supermajority down and it turned out to be 2/3, where 10 is 2/3 of 15.

The scenario is apparent that 10 or more schools would have to be approached by the P3 and offered expansion bids if (and only if) the ACC is dissolved and GOR is void.
Thus, four schools to the SEC (for example: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and NC State, given that the SEC may not want/need a third FL school at Miami), four to the Big Ten (Virginia, UNC, Pitt, Notre Dame) and up to four to the Big 12 (Louisville, Miami, Syracuse, Virginia Tech) still leaves three schools without a home (BC, Duke, and Wake Forest) and essentially dooms these programs from the top tier.

Not sure why they're supposed to sign off on this -- ACC has a signed contract through 2036. Big 12's contract only runs through 2031. What happens if cord cutting continues, ESPN has to keep cutting budgets, and Big 12 is asked to take a 50% haircut next contract cycle?

Quite. Even if those schools might be willing to join the Big12 in the event of an ACC collapse, it is entirely unclear why they would vote to put themselves into that bind by voting to collapse the ACC.

And one of those hypothetical Yes votes seems unlikely to be there at all. It seems highly unlikely that Notre Dame would be a yes vote for killing the ACC if it meant giving up football independence -- and Notre Dame to the Big Ten doesn't happen unless Notre Dame concludes it can no longer maintain football independence.

And the Big Ten is obviously not going to invite Pitt on the off chance that it might put the hurt on Notre Dame football independence so bad that Notre Dame cries uncle ... if Pitt is the cost of getting Notre Dame and UNC, then the Notre Dame and UNC side of that would have to be part of the same package, having the four in that package at the most garners 3 yes votes against 1 no vote.

So if there are no votes from the three schools left behind by the scenario, the four schools allocated to the Big12 instead of one of the S2 conferences, and Notre Dame, that makes a majority of no votes.

(04-16-2023 01:12 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 12:56 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 12:43 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 12:18 PM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  I just thought it would be a fun discussion topic for the realignment board since I didn't see a thread on it. It's no surprise certain ACC teams want out. The debate should be about the GOR and is there a so called loophole of x number of members leave. This isn't to make Swaim seem credible but just to discuss the subject. I could care less who said it. I'm sure teams are exploring their options to see if there is a way out before 2036.

Sent from my LM-G820 using CSNbbs mobile app

We’ve talked about it a LOT already.

I’ve pointed out several times that the Big 12 by-laws actually directly address the message board/sports talk show host lawyer argument of, “If schools don’t like the GOR, then they could just dissolve the league!” The Big 12 makes it clear that anyone that attempts to circumvent the GOR can have their voting rights suspended by the other “disinterested” members (meaning everyone that is NOT trying to leave the league or get around the GOR), which quashes that dissolution vote from ever happening in the first place.

Now, whether the ACC by-laws contain similar language is an open question. However, the ACC GOR agreement essentially matches the Big 12 GOR and the Big 12 by-laws have been public for years where the ACC could have copied them verbatim.

In any event, by-laws are generally written to ensure that schools trying to screw the league CANNOT receive a get out of jail free card.

What there have been too many threads are about EVERYTHING on how ACC schools getting out of the GOR for free on a technicality or legal procedure that have already been addressed by the highest paid law firms in the country. What there is an utter lack of discussion is the one thing that matters: how much can FSU or any other school can afford to buy out the GOR and is that amount worth it compared to the gains they’d get in the Big Ten or SEC?

Just going by average school payouts, the ACC rights for the next 13 is over $400 million per school. Any rational economic actor in the ACC is going to set the GOR buyout at that amount as a *minimum* (and realistically higher for the most valuable schools). I ask in every thread on this topic about whether all of those complaining ACC fans think that their school can afford or is willing to pay that amount and I continue to get crickets. Everyone wants some magical outside force like a legal technicality, dissolution, or ESPN money to save them from a perfectly valid and enforceable contract that neither the bottom half of the ACC nor ESPN itself has ANY rational incentive to even consider prior to around 2030.

I'd say that nobody has any desire to do anything before 2034. The only way 2030 would come into play would be if ESPN acquired all of the B1G in the next contract and they were also convinced that they'd be able to hold onto the SEC in 2034. And even in that situation, ESPN would probably rather keep underpaying FSU/Clemson/perhaps others for a couple years until 2036 rolls around. Remember that once FSU and Clemson are out the door, the value of the ACC contract will tank, while neither is likely to significantly improve the SEC's (or B1G's) value.

I see it as the UT/OU precedent - they announced they were leaving 4 years prior to the end of the GOR (making it clear in all statements that they’d continue to honor the GOR) and then spent 18 months to eventually negotiate getting out of the GOR a year early.

The ACC GOR is strong now because of the length of time left on it - the thought of paying the equivalent of 13 years of TV rights damages is realistically going to block even the richest schools (like UNC and Duke) from leaving. Eventually, that script flips where the length of time left on the GOR isn’t really an impediment - either the damages become more manageable to get out early or the left behind schools have to consider that if they wait too long, they may miss out on getting any GOR damages from the schools that are leaving.

So, I’ve never thought that an ACC can’t/won’t get out a few years early due to those economic factors. I just think it would never make sense for those that can fully enforce the GOR (the bottom half ACC schools and ESPN) to touch that contract NOW 13 years early. No one cares if they have to hear FSU complain for the next 13 years - if they’re already telegraphing that they’re leaving in 13 years, anyway, then appeasing them is not rational for anyone other than those that are biased in favor of movement from the ACC. Around 2030, though, the negotiating leverage of FSU starts becoming more balanced with the rest of the ACC.

6 years is still a very long time though, and any penalty that would significantly benefit the left-behind schools would be so severe that the schools wanting to leave would end up waiting, anyway. So they would announce that they were leaving and, like OUT, give up their voting rights for YEARS. We found out recently that the penalty for leaving big 12 2 years early rather than 1 was so severe that even a school as rich as OU balked (UT was always willing to pay a lot to leave early). Is FSU richer than OU? Are the left-behinds in the ACC going to be more willing to be forgiving than the left-behinds in the big 12?

I could get behind 1 year, maybe even 2, but anything more than that would require extremely speculative contortions.

(04-16-2023 02:29 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Notre Dame to the Big Ten doesn't happen unless Notre Dame concludes it can no longer maintain football independence.

Any updates on the NBC-Notre Dame renewal for 2025 and beyond?

Any other networks or streaming companies that could emerge as serious bidders?

(04-16-2023 02:49 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 02:29 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Notre Dame to the Big Ten doesn't happen unless Notre Dame concludes it can no longer maintain football independence.

Any updates on the NBC-Notre Dame renewal for 2025 and beyond?

Any other networks or streaming companies that could emerge as serious bidders?

Anyone interested in broadcaster sports OTA or online would be happy to pick up ND, but they've expressed a desire to remain with NBC. That tells me that NBC is close to accommodating all of ND's desires. If something were to change, then I'd put ESPN at the top of the list. They'd certainly love to grab ND, and thwarting the B1G at the same time would be icing on the cake.

(04-16-2023 03:02 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 02:49 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 02:29 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Notre Dame to the Big Ten doesn't happen unless Notre Dame concludes it can no longer maintain football independence.

Any updates on the NBC-Notre Dame renewal for 2025 and beyond?

Any other networks or streaming companies that could emerge as serious bidders?

Anyone interested in broadcaster sports OTA or online would be happy to pick up ND, but they've expressed a desire to remain with NBC. That tells me that NBC is close to accommodating all of ND's desires.

Quibble: Notre Dame strongly prefers afternoon games, which rules out CBS. The ABC slot is contracted to the SEC, but I suspect Notre Dame would be happy with the 3:00 slot on ESPN every Saturday.

And I don't think Notre Dame is a free agent yet, negotiation wise. Google isn't telling me when the NBC - Notre Dame exlusive negotiating window is, or even if there is one. But I assume there is, and since the contract is through the fall of 2025, the negotiating period might not be until the fall of 2024.

Tidbit: NBC Sports president Pete Bevacqua is a Notre Dame grad.

(04-16-2023 03:02 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 02:49 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 02:29 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Notre Dame to the Big Ten doesn't happen unless Notre Dame concludes it can no longer maintain football independence.

Any updates on the NBC-Notre Dame renewal for 2025 and beyond?

Any other networks or streaming companies that could emerge as serious bidders?

Anyone interested in broadcaster sports OTA or online would be happy to pick up ND, but they've expressed a desire to remain with NBC. That tells me that NBC is close to accommodating all of ND's desires. If something were to change, then I'd put ESPN at the top of the list.

How would Notre Dame's tradition/preference for 2:30 EST kickoffs in South Bend mesh with media rights agreements in place for 2025 and beyond at ESPN/ABC (SEC/ACC/Big XII), FOX (B1G/Big XII) and CBS (B1G)?

(04-16-2023 03:33 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 03:02 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 02:49 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 02:29 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Notre Dame to the Big Ten doesn't happen unless Notre Dame concludes it can no longer maintain football independence.

Any updates on the NBC-Notre Dame renewal for 2025 and beyond?

Any other networks or streaming companies that could emerge as serious bidders?

Anyone interested in broadcaster sports OTA or online would be happy to pick up ND, but they've expressed a desire to remain with NBC. That tells me that NBC is close to accommodating all of ND's desires. If something were to change, then I'd put ESPN at the top of the list.

How would Notre Dame's tradition/preference for 2:30 EST kickoffs in South Bend mesh with media rights agreements in place for 2025 and beyond at
ESPN/ABC (SEC/ACC/Big XII)

Notre Dame on ESPN, kicking off at 3:30.

Quote:FOX (B1G/Big XII)

Notre Dame on Fox, kicking off at 3:30. Move the Big 12 games to FS1.

Quote:and CBS (B1G)?

Yeah, that's not going to work with CBS' 3:30 Big Ten commitment.

(04-16-2023 11:51 AM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 11:50 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Greg Swaim is not reputable.

Maybe not, but let's discuss whether or not 8 teams leaving could void the ACC GOR. You can plug and play whichever teams would make the most sense for whichever conference.

Sent from my LM-G820 using CSNbbs mobile app

It would seem that it takes all 15 ACC schools plus ESPN to void the GoR. The ACC bylaws are irrelevant. Schools could leave the conference, but they are still bound by the GoR unless ESPN agrees. So what is ESPN's price to agree?

(04-16-2023 01:12 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 01:05 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 12:47 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  The ByLaws question would be what super-majority is required to dissolve the ACC. If the prior discussion arrived at 10 schools required to dissolve the conference, I presume that someone hunted that supermajority down and it turned out to be 2/3, where 10 is 2/3 of 15.

The scenario is apparent that 10 or more schools would have to be approached by the P3 and offered expansion bids if (and only if) the ACC is dissolved and GOR is void.
Thus, four schools to the SEC (for example: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and NC State, given that the SEC may not want/need a third FL school at Miami), four to the Big Ten (Virginia, UNC, Pitt, Notre Dame) and up to four to the Big 12 (Louisville, Miami, Syracuse, Virginia Tech) still leaves three schools without a home (BC, Duke, and Wake Forest) and essentially dooms these programs from the top tier.

Not sure why they're supposed to sign off on this -- ACC has a signed contract through 2036. Big 12's contract only runs through 2031. What happens if cord cutting continues, ESPN has to keep cutting budgets, and Big 12 is asked to take a 50% haircut next contract cycle?

I'd also go with ~2030 being the actual ACC expiration date - where every school sees a better offer on the table than what foreseeably lies ahead. And possibly quite a bit sooner. It does hinge on the B12's health and desire to pick up schools like BC and WF, of course. Anything can change between now and then...but that's what I see as most likely sitting here now.

(04-16-2023 04:49 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 01:12 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 01:05 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 12:47 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  The ByLaws question would be what super-majority is required to dissolve the ACC. If the prior discussion arrived at 10 schools required to dissolve the conference, I presume that someone hunted that supermajority down and it turned out to be 2/3, where 10 is 2/3 of 15.

The scenario is apparent that 10 or more schools would have to be approached by the P3 and offered expansion bids if (and only if) the ACC is dissolved and GOR is void.
Thus, four schools to the SEC (for example: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and NC State, given that the SEC may not want/need a third FL school at Miami), four to the Big Ten (Virginia, UNC, Pitt, Notre Dame) and up to four to the Big 12 (Louisville, Miami, Syracuse, Virginia Tech) still leaves three schools without a home (BC, Duke, and Wake Forest) and essentially dooms these programs from the top tier.

Not sure why they're supposed to sign off on this -- ACC has a signed contract through 2036. Big 12's contract only runs through 2031. What happens if cord cutting continues, ESPN has to keep cutting budgets, and Big 12 is asked to take a 50% haircut next contract cycle?

I'd also go with ~2030 being the actual ACC expiration date - where every school sees a better offer on the table than what foreseeably lies ahead. And possibly quite a bit sooner. It does hinge on the B12's health and desire to pick up schools like BC and WF, of course. Anything can change between now and then...but that's what I see as most likely sitting here now.

So why would schools move to a conference (the Big 12) with less long term security?

(04-16-2023 02:29 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 01:12 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 01:05 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 12:47 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  The ByLaws question would be what super-majority is required to dissolve the ACC. If the prior discussion arrived at 10 schools required to dissolve the conference, I presume that someone hunted that supermajority down and it turned out to be 2/3, where 10 is 2/3 of 15.

The scenario is apparent that 10 or more schools would have to be approached by the P3 and offered expansion bids if (and only if) the ACC is dissolved and GOR is void.
Thus, four schools to the SEC (for example: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and NC State, given that the SEC may not want/need a third FL school at Miami), four to the Big Ten (Virginia, UNC, Pitt, Notre Dame) and up to four to the Big 12 (Louisville, Miami, Syracuse, Virginia Tech) still leaves three schools without a home (BC, Duke, and Wake Forest) and essentially dooms these programs from the top tier.

Not sure why they're supposed to sign off on this -- ACC has a signed contract through 2036. Big 12's contract only runs through 2031. What happens if cord cutting continues, ESPN has to keep cutting budgets, and Big 12 is asked to take a 50% haircut next contract cycle?

Quite. Even if those schools might be willing to join the Big12 in the event of an ACC collapse, it is entirely unclear why they would vote to put themselves into that bind by voting to collapse the ACC.

And one of those hypothetical Yes votes seems unlikely to be there at all. It seems highly unlikely that Notre Dame would be a yes vote for killing the ACC if it meant giving up football independence -- and Notre Dame to the Big Ten doesn't happen unless Notre Dame concludes it can no longer maintain football independence.

And the Big Ten is obviously not going to invite Pitt on the off chance that it might put the hurt on Notre Dame football independence so bad that Notre Dame cries uncle ... if Pitt is the cost of getting Notre Dame and UNC, then the Notre Dame and UNC side of that would have to be part of the same package, having the four in that package at the most garners 3 yes votes against 1 no vote.

So if there are no votes from the three schools left behind by the scenario, the four schools allocated to the Big12 instead of one of the S2 conferences, and Notre Dame, that makes a majority of no votes.

It isn't a GOR thing. It is an ACC's bylaws thing. How that plays out? But all GOR cases come done to actual monetary damages. IF ESPN agrees to the moves, honors the existing contracts fully, or assists some which may be left behind with finding new digs at equal to or slightly more revenue than they presently make there are no damages, just exit fees to collect and divide.

Yes, the duration of the GOR is a pressure, but with looming demographic shifts they are negative pressures for all, not just those seeking to depart.

We'll see. Likely? No. Doable? Possibly.

As always corporations pay lawyers to get done what they want done. Nothing stops anything when reasonable minds agree, and mutually assured destruction by waiting until 2034 and half or more suffering a NET loss of 400 million or more, and the remainder having no good will to find an equitable home is not the work of reasonable minds. If they all recognize what they are loosing by waiting, my money is on reasonable minds coming to terms. Corporations use the law to meet their ends. They use the law to stave off less well funded challengers. They bend the law to get what they want. The Lawyer, and to a certain extent the law, are the servants, and not usually the master. This is especially true where patents are concerned (unless of course the other party is also a well-funded corporation).

In this case, you have 15 schools and a network. Half a dozen to eight schools could move and stay with the network and earn more. About 4 could move outside of the network's purview and make more. The Big 12 exists for a reason. FOX and ESPN defray liability by honoring lesser valued contracts there and they split the tab. Those headed to the SEC, ESPN retains. Those headed to the Big 10 are the quid pro quo for FOX cooperation, and the ACC bylaws are the loophole for the vote. The tool which lessons an uncooperative response from the 3 or 4 which will keep access to the upper tier, have contracts fulfilled or exceeded is a Big 12 membership. All of these schools know that obstructionism, standing in the way, means an abyss for the obstructors in 2036. They'll take a life raft and access.

But do keep regaling yourselves with tales of the wholly unbreakable nature of a contract. I love a well spun myth!

(04-16-2023 04:49 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  I'd also go with ~2030 being the actual ACC expiration date - where every school sees a better offer on the table than what foreseeably lies ahead. And possibly quite a bit sooner.

So anything between tomorrow and 2030?

(04-16-2023 04:39 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 11:51 AM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 11:50 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Greg Swaim is not reputable.

Maybe not, but let's discuss whether or not 8 teams leaving could void the ACC GOR. You can plug and play whichever teams would make the most sense for whichever conference.

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It would seem that it takes all 15 ACC schools plus ESPN to void the GoR. The ACC bylaws are irrelevant. Schools could leave the conference, but they are still bound by the GoR unless ESPN agrees. ...

The Grant is to the ACC. To be sure the reason for making the grant was in support of reaching a contract with ESPN, but under the hypothetical scenario that the ACC is dissolved, then the entity through ESPN licenses the rights has ceased to exist.

It is, in my view, a moot point, since I don't think these scenarios which are being painted under which the ACC is voted to be dissolved are realistic scenarios. They are more along the lines of theoretical arguments over whether getting out of the GOR in this current decade is impossible, or whether it is instead infeasible.

(04-16-2023 05:03 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(04-16-2023 04:49 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  I'd also go with ~2030 being the actual ACC expiration date - where every school sees a better offer on the table than what foreseeably lies ahead. And possibly quite a bit sooner.

So anything between tomorrow and 2030?

Well, I would obviously put tomorrow as somewhat less likely than, say, 2031! But I'd be more bullish on 2025 than 2035.