JRsec
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RE: ACC teams could leave and end GOR (from uncredible Swaim)
(04-16-2023 02:29 PM)BruceMcF Wrote: (04-16-2023 01:12 PM)johnbragg Wrote: (04-16-2023 01:05 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote: (04-16-2023 12:47 PM)BruceMcF Wrote: The ByLaws question would be what super-majority is required to dissolve the ACC. If the prior discussion arrived at 10 schools required to dissolve the conference, I presume that someone hunted that supermajority down and it turned out to be 2/3, where 10 is 2/3 of 15.
The scenario is apparent that 10 or more schools would have to be approached by the P3 and offered expansion bids if (and only if) the ACC is dissolved and GOR is void.
Thus, four schools to the SEC (for example: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and NC State, given that the SEC may not want/need a third FL school at Miami), four to the Big Ten (Virginia, UNC, Pitt, Notre Dame) and up to four to the Big 12 (Louisville, Miami, Syracuse, Virginia Tech) still leaves three schools without a home (BC, Duke, and Wake Forest) and essentially dooms these programs from the top tier.
Not sure why they're supposed to sign off on this -- ACC has a signed contract through 2036. Big 12's contract only runs through 2031. What happens if cord cutting continues, ESPN has to keep cutting budgets, and Big 12 is asked to take a 50% haircut next contract cycle?
Quite. Even if those schools might be willing to join the Big12 in the event of an ACC collapse, it is entirely unclear why they would vote to put themselves into that bind by voting to collapse the ACC.
And one of those hypothetical Yes votes seems unlikely to be there at all. It seems highly unlikely that Notre Dame would be a yes vote for killing the ACC if it meant giving up football independence -- and Notre Dame to the Big Ten doesn't happen unless Notre Dame concludes it can no longer maintain football independence.
And the Big Ten is obviously not going to invite Pitt on the off chance that it might put the hurt on Notre Dame football independence so bad that Notre Dame cries uncle ... if Pitt is the cost of getting Notre Dame and UNC, then the Notre Dame and UNC side of that would have to be part of the same package, having the four in that package at the most garners 3 yes votes against 1 no vote.
So if there are no votes from the three schools left behind by the scenario, the four schools allocated to the Big12 instead of one of the S2 conferences, and Notre Dame, that makes a majority of no votes.
It isn't a GOR thing. It is an ACC's bylaws thing. How that plays out? But all GOR cases come done to actual monetary damages. IF ESPN agrees to the moves, honors the existing contracts fully, or assists some which may be left behind with finding new digs at equal to or slightly more revenue than they presently make there are no damages, just exit fees to collect and divide.
Yes, the duration of the GOR is a pressure, but with looming demographic shifts they are negative pressures for all, not just those seeking to depart.
We'll see. Likely? No. Doable? Possibly.
As always corporations pay lawyers to get done what they want done. Nothing stops anything when reasonable minds agree, and mutually assured destruction by waiting until 2034 and half or more suffering a NET loss of 400 million or more, and the remainder having no good will to find an equitable home is not the work of reasonable minds. If they all recognize what they are loosing by waiting, my money is on reasonable minds coming to terms. Corporations use the law to meet their ends. They use the law to stave off less well funded challengers. They bend the law to get what they want. The Lawyer, and to a certain extent the law, are the servants, and not usually the master. This is especially true where patents are concerned (unless of course the other party is also a well-funded corporation).
In this case, you have 15 schools and a network. Half a dozen to eight schools could move and stay with the network and earn more. About 4 could move outside of the network's purview and make more. The Big 12 exists for a reason. FOX and ESPN defray liability by honoring lesser valued contracts there and they split the tab. Those headed to the SEC, ESPN retains. Those headed to the Big 10 are the quid pro quo for FOX cooperation, and the ACC bylaws are the loophole for the vote. The tool which lessons an uncooperative response from the 3 or 4 which will keep access to the upper tier, have contracts fulfilled or exceeded is a Big 12 membership. All of these schools know that obstructionism, standing in the way, means an abyss for the obstructors in 2036. They'll take a life raft and access.
But do keep regaling yourselves with tales of the wholly unbreakable nature of a contract. I love a well spun myth!
(This post was last modified: 04-16-2023 05:26 PM by JRsec.)
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