(08-01-2023 11:12 PM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  Those teams didn't want to come when we had UCF, Cincy, and Houston. Now they would accept an invite to play the bottom half of CUSA? Are you guys serious?

My brain hurts.

They aren't coming now because of the MWC exit fees which didn't exist at that level 2 years ago. Also if the PAC actually does live through this they are going to take all of the schools we'd have actually wanted anyway. I'm not convinced the PAC is actually going to live, and this is the first time I've ever bought into the whole "conference might die" thing. That all streaming Apple deal is DOA. No one is signing that and committed to a GOR to do it, and that's the best GK could offer them after over a year negotiating with the membership as is. The rest of the 4 corners are going to leave and then I think you are going to see UW/UO/Cal/Stanford offer to take whatever partial shares needed to convince the B1G to take them and I think they will. Honestly I think actually showing that deal is the worst thing that could have been done, because that deal is so horrible under what is now the best case scenario for the leagues composition that it's going to be hard to convince anyone in the MWC to pay over 30 million or in the AAC to pay likely over 20 million to join that mess in 2024. I also just flat out believe the group of UW/UO/Cal/Stanford would much rather accept long term second class citizenship in a P2 conference than accept rebuilding into what will just be a new G5 league and would be paid as such.

Again, you can't compare what the B12 went through and what the PAC is facing simply due to geography. The Pacific Time Zone is a tough TV sell and the blue blood PAC could not make it work. Anyone think a G5 heavy PAC can on Apple TV?

Again, MW and AAC teams will still leap at a chance to join the PAC but your media deal, bowl lineup and standing in the rankings will not be "Power". It will be the AAC West.

MWC loses four members. The American loses two. Agree that the PAC will rebuild. They can find a linear provider next time their contract is up at $11 million each annually. Their membership won't be worth more than that.

(08-02-2023 08:04 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  Again, you can't compare what the B12 went through and what the PAC is facing simply due to geography. The Pacific Time Zone is a tough TV sell and the blue blood PAC could not make it work. Anyone think a G5 heavy PAC can on Apple TV?

Again, MW and AAC teams will still leap at a chance to join the PAC but your media deal, bowl lineup and standing in the rankings will not be "Power". It will be the AAC West.

We'll see if they will. This is a much different value proposition. We all just saw the ceiling of their earning potential, 20 million all streaming. Once we get down to whatever number of PAC schools are stuck there even that bad deal won't still be available. Are MWC teams going to be willing to pay 30+ million to join a league with a TV team potentially of like 12-15 million all streaming for 2024? Are AAC teams going to pay potentially 20+ million for that proposition? I might even be overselling what the PAC/MWC/AAC hybrid can get at this point. Could that league in this market even exceed the AAC's current TV deal in both money and exposure? I think that's actually up for debate. It was easy for all of us that bailed on C-USA in the early 10's to just do it with no TV deal in place, C-USA had no exit fees that mattered and it's TV deal was garbage. You leave that every day of the week and worry about the details later.

(08-01-2023 09:42 AM)Ourland Wrote:  With the PAC meeting in a few hours, here's a quick thread to guess the projected money behind its deal...

I'll take a shot. If the revenue were distributed equally, I'd say $24 million per remaining school. Any newbies will get $10 million each.

The PAC12 is in real jeopardy of falling apart at this point. If the Arizona schools go to the B12 its over for them

(08-02-2023 09:40 AM)Sea Pirate Wrote:  

(08-01-2023 09:42 AM)Ourland Wrote:  With the PAC meeting in a few hours, here's a quick thread to guess the projected money behind its deal...

I'll take a shot. If the revenue were distributed equally, I'd say $24 million per remaining school. Any newbies will get $10 million each.

The PAC12 is in real jeopardy of falling apart at this point. If the Arizona schools go to the B12 its over for them

I just don't see it. There's still Oregon and Washington sitting there waiting on the BIG10. As long as six remain, suckers will join up. Rice already did its time out West. It's a sorry existence. It's the reason we turned down the MWC. I'm glad it's unlikely that we are asked to join the PAC.

(08-01-2023 11:27 PM)Ourland Wrote:  

(08-01-2023 11:12 PM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  Those teams didn't want to come when we had UCF, Cincy, and Houston. Now they would accept an invite to play the bottom half of CUSA? Are you guys serious?

My brain hurts.

They aren't going to want to stay behind in a conference with San Jose, Nevada, Montana, Wyoming, UTEP, New Mexico State, North Dakota, and New Mexico.

Our lineup looks much better than that, and there's more exposure in our timezones.

Boise State
Air Force
UTSA
Rice
North Texas
Tulsa
Memphis
Navy
Liberty
Army
FAU
South Florida
Charlotte
East Carolina
Temple
Alabama - Birmingham

This collection of schools is more competitive than with SMU and Tulane, no offense personally to their respective fans.

Take a gander at the list below. Tell me if you think the top 3 teams on this list want to join a league with the bottom 3 teams on this list. Let me know how you think they'll feel about chartering a flight across the country to Charlotte, ECU, and FAU for their women's volleyball teams.

_____________________________________________________________________

Rice: #7 43%
seasons: 109 (1914 to 2022)
Record (W-L-T): 478-644-32
Conf. Championships: 8
Bowl Record: 13 Bowls, 7-6, .538 W-L% (Major Bowls)
Ranked in AP Poll: 3 Times (Preseason), 7 Times (Final), 69 Weeks (Total)

Wyoming: #5 48%
seasons: 111 (1905 to 2022)
Record (W-L-T): 531-581-2
Conf. Championships: 14
Bowl Record: 18 Bowls, 9-9, .500 W-L% (Major Bowls)
Ranked in AP Poll: 0 Times (Preseason), 4 Times (Final), 56 Weeks (Total)

Nevada: #3 54%
seasons: 36 (1946 to 2022)
Record (W-L-T): 230-197-0
Conf. Championships: 7
Bowl Record: 19 Bowls, 7-12, .368 W-L% (Major Bowls)
Ranked in AP Poll: 0 Times (Preseason), 1 Time (Final), 16 Weeks (Total)

UTSA: #4 52%
Seasons: 11 (2012 to 2022)
Record (W-L-T): 71-65-0
Conf. Championships: 1
Bowl Record: 4 Bowls, 0-4, .000 W-L% (Major Bowls)
Ranked in AP Poll: 0 Times (Preseason), 0 Times (Final), 9 Weeks (Total)

Charlotte: #8 32%
seasons: 8 (2015 to 2022)
Record (W-L-T): 29-62-0
Bowl Record: 1 Bowl, 0-1, .000 W-L% (Major Bowls)
Ranked in AP Poll: 0 Times (Preseason), 0 Times (Final), 0 Weeks (Total)

North Texas: #6 44% (tie)
seasons: 58 (1953 to 2022)
Record (W-L-T): 279-358-11
Conf. Championships: 9
Bowl Record: 12 Bowls, 2-10, .167 W-L% (Major Bowls)
Ranked in AP Poll: 0 Times (Preseason), 0 Times (Final), 2 Weeks (Total)

Air Force: #2 55%
seasons: 66 (1957 to 2022)
Record (W-L-T): 418-336-12
Conf. Championships: 3
Bowl Record: 29 Bowls, 15-13-1, .534 W-L% (Major Bowls)
Ranked in AP Poll: 1 Time (Preseason), 7 Times (Final), 81 Weeks (Total)

Boise State: #1 77%
seasons: 27 (1996 to 2022)
Record (W-L-T): 263-79-0
Conf. Championships: 14
Bowl Record: 20 Bowls, 13-7, .650 W-L% (Major Bowls)
Ranked in AP Poll: 9 Times (Preseason), 13 Times (Final), 165 Weeks (Total)

FAU: #6 44% (tie)
seasons: 19 (2004 to 2022)
Record (W-L-T): 101-129-0
Conf. Championships: 3
Bowl Record: 5 Bowls, 4-1, .800 W-L% (Major Bowls)
Ranked in AP Poll: 0 Times (Preseason), 0 Times (Final), 0 Weeks (Total)

Here's what we should be striving for. 16 solid programs. It will cut down on travel. 9 conference games. 7 in your division, 2 from the other division. Conference Championship between top team in each division.

West teams get to play Central Time Zone games. Games on ESPN, CBS, and not on Apple TV where nobody will see you. Teams get 8-10 million.

minor sports play in their own divisions. West Coast teams start games at 5:30 Pacific. East Coast teams start at 7:00 Central.

Every team would be in a better situation with this than to join the PAC just to be with Oregon State and Washington State on Apple TV for 10 million.

Basketball could still keep Wichita State, and add maybe Gonzaga. If Not Gonzaga, Then St.Louis or something like that.

West
SMU
Boise State
Colorado State
Utah State
UNLV
Air Force
SDSU
Fresno State

East
Memphis
Tulane
USF
East Carolina
Navy
Army
Temple
Tulsa

reserves: UAB, Rice, Nevada, UTSA, North Texas.

(08-02-2023 09:48 AM)Ourland Wrote:  

(08-02-2023 09:40 AM)Sea Pirate Wrote:  

(08-01-2023 09:42 AM)Ourland Wrote:  With the PAC meeting in a few hours, here's a quick thread to guess the projected money behind its deal...

I'll take a shot. If the revenue were distributed equally, I'd say $24 million per remaining school. Any newbies will get $10 million each.

The PAC12 is in real jeopardy of falling apart at this point. If the Arizona schools go to the B12 its over for them

I just don't see it. There's still Oregon and Washington sitting there waiting on the BIG10. As long as six remain, suckers will join up. Rice already did its time out West. It's a sorry existence. It's the reason we turned down the MWC. I'm glad it's unlikely that we are asked to join the PAC.

I agree at 6 they can still rebuild, but there's no way this league is signing a GOR at this point, and my guess is that's a requirement of this current awful deal on the table.

(08-02-2023 10:40 AM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  

(08-01-2023 11:27 PM)Ourland Wrote:  

(08-01-2023 11:12 PM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  Those teams didn't want to come when we had UCF, Cincy, and Houston. Now they would accept an invite to play the bottom half of CUSA? Are you guys serious?

My brain hurts.

They aren't going to want to stay behind in a conference with San Jose, Nevada, Montana, Wyoming, UTEP, New Mexico State, North Dakota, and New Mexico.

Our lineup looks much better than that, and there's more exposure in our timezones.

Boise State
Air Force
UTSA
Rice
North Texas
Tulsa
Memphis
Navy
Liberty
Army
FAU
South Florida
Charlotte
East Carolina
Temple
Alabama - Birmingham

This collection of schools is more competitive than with SMU and Tulane, no offense personally to their respective fans.

Take a gander at the list below. Tell me if you think the top 3 teams on this list want to join a league with the bottom 3 teams on this list. Let me know how you think they'll feel about chartering a flight across the country to Charlotte, ECU, and FAU for their women's volleyball teams.

_____________________________________________________________________

Rice: #7 43%
seasons: 109 (1914 to 2022)
Record (W-L-T): 478-644-32
Conf. Championships: 8
Bowl Record: 13 Bowls, 7-6, .538 W-L% (Major Bowls)
Ranked in AP Poll: 3 Times (Preseason), 7 Times (Final), 69 Weeks (Total)

Wyoming: #5 48%
seasons: 111 (1905 to 2022)
Record (W-L-T): 531-581-2
Conf. Championships: 14
Bowl Record: 18 Bowls, 9-9, .500 W-L% (Major Bowls)
Ranked in AP Poll: 0 Times (Preseason), 4 Times (Final), 56 Weeks (Total)

Nevada: #3 54%
seasons: 36 (1946 to 2022)
Record (W-L-T): 230-197-0
Conf. Championships: 7
Bowl Record: 19 Bowls, 7-12, .368 W-L% (Major Bowls)
Ranked in AP Poll: 0 Times (Preseason), 1 Time (Final), 16 Weeks (Total)

UTSA: #4 52%
Seasons: 11 (2012 to 2022)
Record (W-L-T): 71-65-0
Conf. Championships: 1
Bowl Record: 4 Bowls, 0-4, .000 W-L% (Major Bowls)
Ranked in AP Poll: 0 Times (Preseason), 0 Times (Final), 9 Weeks (Total)

Charlotte: #8 32%
seasons: 8 (2015 to 2022)
Record (W-L-T): 29-62-0
Bowl Record: 1 Bowl, 0-1, .000 W-L% (Major Bowls)
Ranked in AP Poll: 0 Times (Preseason), 0 Times (Final), 0 Weeks (Total)

North Texas: #6 44% (tie)
seasons: 58 (1953 to 2022)
Record (W-L-T): 279-358-11
Conf. Championships: 9
Bowl Record: 12 Bowls, 2-10, .167 W-L% (Major Bowls)
Ranked in AP Poll: 0 Times (Preseason), 0 Times (Final), 2 Weeks (Total)

Air Force: #2 55%
seasons: 66 (1957 to 2022)
Record (W-L-T): 418-336-12
Conf. Championships: 3
Bowl Record: 29 Bowls, 15-13-1, .534 W-L% (Major Bowls)
Ranked in AP Poll: 1 Time (Preseason), 7 Times (Final), 81 Weeks (Total)

Boise State: #1 77%
seasons: 27 (1996 to 2022)
Record (W-L-T): 263-79-0
Conf. Championships: 14
Bowl Record: 20 Bowls, 13-7, .650 W-L% (Major Bowls)
Ranked in AP Poll: 9 Times (Preseason), 13 Times (Final), 165 Weeks (Total)

FAU: #6 44% (tie)
seasons: 19 (2004 to 2022)
Record (W-L-T): 101-129-0
Conf. Championships: 3
Bowl Record: 5 Bowls, 4-1, .800 W-L% (Major Bowls)
Ranked in AP Poll: 0 Times (Preseason), 0 Times (Final), 0 Weeks (Total)

A lot of people think the future will be schools will be in one conference for football (separate) and the rest of the sports will be in a more regional league for travel purposes. It makes a lot of sense

(08-02-2023 09:40 AM)Sea Pirate Wrote:  

(08-01-2023 09:42 AM)Ourland Wrote:  With the PAC meeting in a few hours, here's a quick thread to guess the projected money behind its deal...

I'll take a shot. If the revenue were distributed equally, I'd say $24 million per remaining school. Any newbies will get $10 million each.

The PAC12 is in real jeopardy of falling apart at this point. If the Arizona schools go to the B12 its over for them

Define "over." You mean going out of business, or just having worse teams and less money? You know, like every conference that gets raided.

Big 10 doing their due diligence on Oregon and Washington per reports. Could add Stanford and Cal as well. Sounds like the remaining four corner schools will need to bolt for the Big 12 before the Big 10 takes action though.

(08-02-2023 12:06 PM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  Here's what we should be striving for. 16 solid programs. It will cut down on travel. 9 conference games. 7 in your division, 2 from the other division. Conference Championship between top team in each division.

West teams get to play Central Time Zone games. Games on ESPN, CBS, and not on Apple TV where nobody will see you. Teams get 8-10 million.

minor sports play in their own divisions. West Coast teams start games at 5:30 Pacific. East Coast teams start at 7:00 Central.

Every team would be in a better situation with this than to join the PAC just to be with Oregon State and Washington State on Apple TV for 10 million.

Basketball could still keep Wichita State, and add maybe Gonzaga. If Not Gonzaga, Then St.Louis or something like that.

West
SMU
Boise State
Colorado State
Utah State
UNLV
Air Force
SDSU
Fresno State

East
Memphis
Tulane
USF
East Carolina
Navy
Army
Temple
Tulsa

reserves: UAB, Rice, Nevada, UTSA, North Texas.

That's one thing that blows my mind about all this. American Athletic Conference games could end up greatly outnumbering PAC-12 games on television. What a stunning blow that would be to the PAC-12 and a victory for the American.

(08-02-2023 01:25 PM)TrackSuitAndTie Wrote:  Big 10 doing their due diligence on Oregon and Washington per reports. Could add Stanford and Cal as well. Sounds like the remaining four corner schools will need to bolt for the Big 12 before the Big 10 takes action though.

I heard one report from Jason Sceer (I may be spelling his last name wrong) where a source was quoted as saying that Arizona and another PAC-12 school were being talked about for Big XII invitations, but the other school wasn't one that was being as heavily discussed. The implication was that the other school was probably Oregon. This is from an anonymous source and is unconfirmed, so take it with a huge amount of salt.

(08-02-2023 08:12 AM)Ourland Wrote:  MWC loses four members. The American loses two. Agree that the PAC will rebuild. They can find a linear provider next time their contract is up at $11 million each annually. Their membership won't be worth more than that.

If the numbers are correct and if the PAC members will have to sign a GOR, I can't imagine that anyone will jump to the PAC.

If I understand things correctly, at the very least, a MWC program has to pay $17M to leave for another conference. The AAC programs would have to pay $10M. Both of these best case scenarios only apply if lengthy notices of departure are given... and the PAC does not have that long to wait.

One also has to take into account the very real possibility that other PAC programs will bolt to the B12. My bet is that Utah, Arizona and Arizona State will make the leap if offered as to do otherwise and stay in the PAC will be suicide. Oregon and Washington may make the same decision.

Oregon and Washington might -again, MIGHT- have a spot waiting for them in the B10. My guess is that we'll be able to figure that out in the coming week.

There is also a chance that Oregon State, Washington State, Cal and Stanford could wind up in the B12 but I find that chance to be extremely remote.

All that being said, I think that the most likely scenario is that Washington State and Oregon State wind up in the MWC. The MWC might get a nice little bump in their contract as a result.

What California does is to be determined by what Stanford does. If Stanford goes to the MWC, Cal will follow. If Stanford goes indy, Cal will have a choice to make: do they follow and then suffer as a result or do they blaze their own path and join the MWC, only to be frowned upon by their Stanford big brothers who will proclaim to have more academic integrity for the foreseeable future?

Both should join the MWC if given the chance but I think that Stanford will go indy and that Cal will follow their lead.

The MWC winds up benefitting from the additions of Oregon State and Washington State. In time, they will get a bump in their media deal as a result. At the moment however, this benefit will not be enough to lure any AAC programs to their ranks. If California (and even better, Stanford) joins, then things change.

(08-02-2023 01:34 PM)Golden Jedi Knight Wrote:  

(08-02-2023 01:25 PM)TrackSuitAndTie Wrote:  Big 10 doing their due diligence on Oregon and Washington per reports. Could add Stanford and Cal as well. Sounds like the remaining four corner schools will need to bolt for the Big 12 before the Big 10 takes action though.

I heard one report from Jason Sceer (I may be spelling his last name wrong) where a source was quoted as saying that Arizona and another PAC-12 school were being talked about for Big XII invitations, but the other school wasn't one that was being as heavily discussed. The implication was that the other school was probably Oregon. This is from an anonymous source and is unconfirmed, so take it with a huge amount of salt.

Thankfully there's plenty of salt in these threads to go around.

(08-02-2023 08:12 AM)Ourland Wrote:  MWC loses four members. The American loses two. Agree that the PAC will rebuild. They can find a linear provider next time their contract is up at $11 million each annually. Their membership won't be worth more than that.

No MWC or AAC school admins with any business sense will trade a guaranteed paycheck & linear visibility for a $3M increase (in the case of AAC schools) that is only guaranteed for 2 yrs & only visibility is behind a paywall in a conference where every current member will bale at their first opportunity - while forfeiting $17-34M to make the move.

(08-02-2023 02:02 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(08-02-2023 08:12 AM)Ourland Wrote:  MWC loses four members. The American loses two. Agree that the PAC will rebuild. They can find a linear provider next time their contract is up at $11 million each annually. Their membership won't be worth more than that.

No MWC or AAC school admins with any business sense will trade a guaranteed paycheck & linear visibility for a $3M increase (in the case of AAC schools) that is only guaranteed for 2 yrs & only visibility is behind a paywall in a conference where every current member will bale at their first opportunity - while forfeiting $17-34M to make the move.

This is why merging the MWC into the PAC makes most sense if the PAC is down to only 2-3 teams. Exit fees for MWC schools would go away in that scenario.

(08-02-2023 02:04 PM)Owls9878 Wrote:  

(08-02-2023 02:02 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(08-02-2023 08:12 AM)Ourland Wrote:  MWC loses four members. The American loses two. Agree that the PAC will rebuild. They can find a linear provider next time their contract is up at $11 million each annually. Their membership won't be worth more than that.

No MWC or AAC school admins with any business sense will trade a guaranteed paycheck & linear visibility for a $3M increase (in the case of AAC schools) that is only guaranteed for 2 yrs & only visibility is behind a paywall in a conference where every current member will bale at their first opportunity - while forfeiting $17-34M to make the move.

This is why merging the MWC into the PAC makes most sense if the PAC is down to only 2-3 teams. Exit fees for MWC schools would go away in that scenario.

The remaining PAC schools will be WSU & OSU. Stanford & Cal are the unknowns but won't associate with the MWC schools. The others will likely find a home in the B12 or the B1G. So a merger of sorts could happen or the remaining 4 schools could just vote to dissolve if they can't agree on additions.

WSU & OSU in the MWC would be like UConn in their AAC days. those schools without a natural talent base need a power conference to sell the school on the recruiting trail.