(12-27-2023 04:34 PM)XLance Wrote:  I read the poll........

The ACC is not going to add UConn........ever.

I distinctly remember when the ACC would never….. ever add the University of Louisville too. But…..

I see it a little unlikely that the ACC adds USF with Florida politics getting involved in their suit vs the ACC. USF should be joined with UCF anyway.

(12-27-2023 03:07 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 01:35 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 12:07 AM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  

(12-26-2023 11:08 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(12-24-2023 06:51 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  USF, Tulane, and UConn seem like the most logical choices. Also, try to peel off Cincinnati, UCF, or West Virginia from the Big 12.

If the B12 is paying $55 million and a new look ACC sits at $35M, zero chance WVU or Cincinnati is moving.

He’s referring to total conference payout. Which if things hold, some of the 16 will approach that, but $50 million is more likely

Meanwhile, if the ACC loses its top brands to SEC and BIG, will they be making $35 million?

I’d expect ESPN to walk at that point, if them walking wasn’t the cause of the aforementioned exodus. What does the leftover ACC 11 to 14 get on the market without top of ACC and with no ND deal? $15 million on CW?

3x operating expenditures (exit fee) and GoR value plummets if ESPN walks.

The average ACC media payout is estimated at $36M/year (T1 + ACCN).
The total payout LAST YEAR was $40M. Between now and 2036, the total payout is projected to increase to at least $65M/year.

It seems like you are using projected Big XII future payouts versus old/outdated past ACC payouts.

Nope. Future vs future.

Once more, what will the TV payout will be when the ACC loses its top brands? Because that’s the scenario alluded to.

Particularly if it loses FSU, loses the GOR case and/or ESPN declines its option. If that occurs, $35 million is optimistic. Likely 4+ schools are gone plus ND.

If ESPN postponed its decision on the ACC in 2021. That’s not a good sign for the notion ESPN is getting such a great deal on the ACC even with top brands

It suggests the ACC isn’t undervalued, FSU is. Maybe UNC, and ND underutilized

To get those in the P2 and better macros, a few more ACC to P2 are feasible as transaction costs

(12-27-2023 04:58 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 03:07 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 01:35 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 12:07 AM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  

(12-26-2023 11:08 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  If the B12 is paying $55 million and a new look ACC sits at $35M, zero chance WVU or Cincinnati is moving.

He’s referring to total conference payout. Which if things hold, some of the 16 will approach that, but $50 million is more likely

Meanwhile, if the ACC loses its top brands to SEC and BIG, will they be making $35 million?

I’d expect ESPN to walk at that point, if them walking wasn’t the cause of the aforementioned exodus. What does the leftover ACC 11 to 14 get on the market without top of ACC and with no ND deal? $15 million on CW?

3x operating expenditures (exit fee) and GoR value plummets if ESPN walks.

The average ACC media payout is estimated at $36M/year (T1 + ACCN).
The total payout LAST YEAR was $40M. Between now and 2036, the total payout is projected to increase to at least $65M/year.

It seems like you are using projected Big XII future payouts versus old/outdated past ACC payouts.

Nope. Future vs future.

Once more, what will the payout will be when the ACC loses its top brands.
Because that’s the scenario alluded to (Big 12 schools leaving to backfill the ACC)

If they stay above 15 teams then they'll be making what the projections already show they'll be making.

Where does the $36 million come from if you're not using past numbers? If it's not that then you're just throwing a number out there and using it as a fact. The only thing that is known is what things will be if they continue as is, and as is includes the potential to lose any number of teams where they stay above 15 overall.

(12-27-2023 05:05 PM)e-parade Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 04:58 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 03:07 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 01:35 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 12:07 AM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  

He’s referring to total conference payout. Which if things hold, some of the 16 will approach that, but $50 million is more likely

Meanwhile, if the ACC loses its top brands to SEC and BIG, will they be making $35 million?

I’d expect ESPN to walk at that point, if them walking wasn’t the cause of the aforementioned exodus. What does the leftover ACC 11 to 14 get on the market without top of ACC and with no ND deal? $15 million on CW?

3x operating expenditures (exit fee) and GoR value plummets if ESPN walks.

The average ACC media payout is estimated at $36M/year (T1 + ACCN).
The total payout LAST YEAR was $40M. Between now and 2036, the total payout is projected to increase to at least $65M/year.

It seems like you are using projected Big XII future payouts versus old/outdated past ACC payouts.

Nope. Future vs future.

Once more, what will the payout will be when the ACC loses its top brands.
Because that’s the scenario alluded to (Big 12 schools leaving to backfill the ACC)

If they stay above 15 teams then they'll be making what the projections already show they'll be making.

Where does the $36 million come from if you're not using past numbers? If it's not that then you're just throwing a number out there and using it as a fact. The only thing that is known is what things will be if they continue as is, and as is includes the potential to lose any number of teams where they stay above 15 overall.

lol, just stop. And reread the thread

I didn’t throw out $35 million as a fact. No one did. Another poster said If the B12 is paying $55 million and a new look ACC sits at $35 then Big 12 schools won’t go to ACC

I asked whether $35 million is the correct number for an ACC that loses its top brands(“new look ACC”.)

I certainly didn’t state $35 million as a fact. It could be materially less, in the same manner the new look PAC is making a lot less.

New look ACC can mean many things and many numbers are possible, most being less than the current rate. Your emotional response to such questions suggests it is you that’s thinking in terms of undue certainty on what “new look ACC” means

Moving on.

In terms of Big 12 vs ACC, regardless of how many leave in near term, it has high bait and switch odds…that eventually four or more ACC losses will occur, and collectively have greater odds than one to three losses

(12-24-2023 06:01 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(12-24-2023 05:47 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  I could have included more B12 schools but I am just too tired of arguing with some of the B12 fans. They seem to be very sensitive about losing schools (particularly to the ACC).

Because it is the other way around, as demonstrated by the Pac.

If not taken by the B1G or SEC, VT will be in the Big XII. It's only a matter of time ...

Many Virginia Tech fans are unhappy with the ACC.

None of them want to join the Big 12.

(12-27-2023 06:08 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(12-24-2023 06:01 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(12-24-2023 05:47 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  I could have included more B12 schools but I am just too tired of arguing with some of the B12 fans. They seem to be very sensitive about losing schools (particularly to the ACC).

Because it is the other way around, as demonstrated by the Pac.

If not taken by the B1G or SEC, VT will be in the Big XII. It's only a matter of time ...

Many Virginia Tech fans are unhappy with the ACC.

None of them want to join the Big 12.

Arizona, Arizona State, Utah fans didn't want to join the XII either, and yet there they are.

(Side note: Why type B1G instead of Big 10 but not type XII instead of Big 12?)

(12-27-2023 05:58 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 05:05 PM)e-parade Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 04:58 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 03:07 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 01:35 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  He’s referring to total conference payout. Which if things hold, some of the 16 will approach that, but $50 million is more likely

Meanwhile, if the ACC loses its top brands to SEC and BIG, will they be making $35 million?

I’d expect ESPN to walk at that point, if them walking wasn’t the cause of the aforementioned exodus. What does the leftover ACC 11 to 14 get on the market without top of ACC and with no ND deal? $15 million on CW?

3x operating expenditures (exit fee) and GoR value plummets if ESPN walks.

The average ACC media payout is estimated at $36M/year (T1 + ACCN).
The total payout LAST YEAR was $40M. Between now and 2036, the total payout is projected to increase to at least $65M/year.

It seems like you are using projected Big XII future payouts versus old/outdated past ACC payouts.

Nope. Future vs future.

Once more, what will the payout will be when the ACC loses its top brands.
Because that’s the scenario alluded to (Big 12 schools leaving to backfill the ACC)

If they stay above 15 teams then they'll be making what the projections already show they'll be making.

Where does the $36 million come from if you're not using past numbers? If it's not that then you're just throwing a number out there and using it as a fact. The only thing that is known is what things will be if they continue as is, and as is includes the potential to lose any number of teams where they stay above 15 overall.

lol, just stop. And reread the thread

I didn’t throw out $35 million as a fact. No one did. Another poster said If the B12 is paying $55 million and a new look ACC sits at $35 then Big 12 schools won’t go to ACC

I asked whether $35 million is the correct number for an ACC that loses its top brands(“new look ACC”.)

I certainly didn’t state $35 million as a fact. It could be materially less, in the same manner the new look PAC is making a lot less.

New look ACC can mean many things and many numbers are possible, most being less than the current rate. Your emotional response to such questions suggests it is you that’s thinking in terms of undue certainty on what “new look ACC” means

Moving on.

In terms of Big 12 vs ACC, regardless of how many leave in near term, it has high bait and switch odds…that eventually four or more ACC losses will occur, and collectively have greater odds than one to three losses

Oh, got it. Padded numbers Big XII vs a scenario where the ACC loses its top brands and has to renegotiate. Thank you for clarifying.

(12-27-2023 08:49 PM)djsuperfly Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 06:08 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(12-24-2023 06:01 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(12-24-2023 05:47 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  I could have included more B12 schools but I am just too tired of arguing with some of the B12 fans. They seem to be very sensitive about losing schools (particularly to the ACC).

Because it is the other way around, as demonstrated by the Pac.

If not taken by the B1G or SEC, VT will be in the Big XII. It's only a matter of time ...

Many Virginia Tech fans are unhappy with the ACC.

None of them want to join the Big 12.

Arizona, Arizona State, Utah fans didn't want to join the XII either, and yet there they are.

(Side note: Why type B1G instead of Big 10 but not type XII instead of Big 12?)

The Pac taught us schools move East, not West.

(12-27-2023 05:58 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 05:05 PM)e-parade Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 04:58 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 03:07 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 01:35 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  He’s referring to total conference payout. Which if things hold, some of the 16 will approach that, but $50 million is more likely

Meanwhile, if the ACC loses its top brands to SEC and BIG, will they be making $35 million?

I’d expect ESPN to walk at that point, if them walking wasn’t the cause of the aforementioned exodus. What does the leftover ACC 11 to 14 get on the market without top of ACC and with no ND deal? $15 million on CW?

3x operating expenditures (exit fee) and GoR value plummets if ESPN walks.

The average ACC media payout is estimated at $36M/year (T1 + ACCN).
The total payout LAST YEAR was $40M. Between now and 2036, the total payout is projected to increase to at least $65M/year.

It seems like you are using projected Big XII future payouts versus old/outdated past ACC payouts.

Nope. Future vs future.

Once more, what will the payout will be when the ACC loses its top brands.
Because that’s the scenario alluded to (Big 12 schools leaving to backfill the ACC)

If they stay above 15 teams then they'll be making what the projections already show they'll be making.

Where does the $36 million come from if you're not using past numbers? If it's not that then you're just throwing a number out there and using it as a fact. The only thing that is known is what things will be if they continue as is, and as is includes the potential to lose any number of teams where they stay above 15 overall.

lol, just stop. And reread the thread

I didn’t throw out $35 million as a fact. No one did. Another poster said If the B12 is paying $55 million and a new look ACC sits at $35 then Big 12 schools won’t go to ACC

I asked whether $35 million is the correct number for an ACC that loses its top brands(“new look ACC”.)

I certainly didn’t state $35 million as a fact. It could be materially less, in the same manner the new look PAC is making a lot less.

New look ACC can mean many things and many numbers are possible, most being less than the current rate. Your emotional response to such questions suggests it is you that’s thinking in terms of undue certainty on what “new look ACC” means

Moving on.

In terms of Big 12 vs ACC, regardless of how many leave in near term, it has high bait and switch odds…that eventually four or more ACC losses will occur, and collectively have greater odds than one to three losses

Emotional response? How did you get that from my post in any way?

Try reading it as if someone is just saying words and that was how I was writing it. Are you thinking I was taking part in the discussion prior to that post I made? That was my first post in the thread, so maybe you should reread it.

All I was saying was that if the ACC manages to stay above 15 teams it's the only scenario where we have actual numbers. They should be able to stay above 15 without needing to look at any conference other than the AAC, so my thoughts are the numbers won't have a chance to be renegotiated on the shorter timeline. So the numbers will most likely be what the current projections are showing. Any other number out there is just someone guessing.

If you're saying they won't be able to stay above 15 simply by adding from the AAC, then that's something I don't believe, but at least I'd know that's where you'd be coming from.


edit: just to be clear, you shouldn't read this post as if I have any emotions behind it either.

USF and Memphis. Memphis hoops is really good and their football is underrated. Put them in a better conference with better recruiting opportunities and they will do well. USF has a big upside and it's never bad to include the State of Florida in your conference - assuming FSU is gone.

(12-27-2023 08:49 PM)djsuperfly Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 06:08 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(12-24-2023 06:01 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(12-24-2023 05:47 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  I could have included more B12 schools but I am just too tired of arguing with some of the B12 fans. They seem to be very sensitive about losing schools (particularly to the ACC).

Because it is the other way around, as demonstrated by the Pac.

If not taken by the B1G or SEC, VT will be in the Big XII. It's only a matter of time ...

Many Virginia Tech fans are unhappy with the ACC.

None of them want to join the Big 12.

Arizona, Arizona State, Utah fans didn't want to join the XII either, and yet there they are.

(Side note: Why type B1G instead of Big 10 but not type XII instead of Big 12?)

That doesn’t mean the ACC schools will join the Big XII.

(12-27-2023 11:34 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  USF and Memphis. Memphis hoops is really good and their football is underrated. Put them in a better conference with better recruiting opportunities and they will do well. USF has a big upside and it's never bad to include the State of Florida in your conference - assuming FSU is gone.

This ^^^^^^^

I don’t expect the ACC will lose more than two schools.

If the ACC loses FSU and no one else, then stay put.
If the ACC loses FSU and Miami, then add USF now.
If the ACC loses FSU and Clemson, then the ACC can either stay put or add USF or UConn depending on what ESPN wants.

(12-27-2023 04:56 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:  I see it a little unlikely that the ACC adds USF with Florida politics getting involved in their suit vs the ACC. USF should be joined with UCF anyway.

I disagree. Florida is like a better version of SoCal for College Athletics Sure, its politics can be a challenge, but it's a huge source of fans, talent and enthusiasm, and a rising power like USF will always have options. If just FSU leaves and Miami for some reason remains in the ACC, then they might not replace them with USF. However, if both leave as I expect, then USF will be priority #1.

(12-27-2023 04:58 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 03:07 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 01:35 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 12:07 AM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  

(12-26-2023 11:08 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  If the B12 is paying $55 million and a new look ACC sits at $35M, zero chance WVU or Cincinnati is moving.

He’s referring to total conference payout. Which if things hold, some of the 16 will approach that, but $50 million is more likely

Meanwhile, if the ACC loses its top brands to SEC and BIG, will they be making $35 million?

I’d expect ESPN to walk at that point, if them walking wasn’t the cause of the aforementioned exodus. What does the leftover ACC 11 to 14 get on the market without top of ACC and with no ND deal? $15 million on CW?

3x operating expenditures (exit fee) and GoR value plummets if ESPN walks.

The average ACC media payout is estimated at $36M/year (T1 + ACCN).
The total payout LAST YEAR was $40M. Between now and 2036, the total payout is projected to increase to at least $65M/year.

It seems like you are using projected Big XII future payouts versus old/outdated past ACC payouts.

Nope. Future vs future.

Once more, what will the TV payout will be when the ACC loses its top brands? Because that’s the scenario alluded to.

Particularly if it loses FSU, loses the GOR case and/or ESPN declines its option. If that occurs, $35 million is optimistic. Likely 4+ schools are gone plus ND.

If ESPN postponed its decision on the ACC in 2021. That’s not a good sign for the notion ESPN is getting such a great deal on the ACC even with top brands

It suggests the ACC isn’t undervalued, FSU is. Maybe UNC, and ND underutilized

To get those in the P2 and better macros, a few more ACC to P2 are feasible as transaction costs

I haven't seen that $65m number. Using 4% per year, I've been expecting the payout to rise to...um...yeah, math is hard:

$40m x 1.04^12 = $64.04m

(12-27-2023 06:08 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(12-24-2023 06:01 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(12-24-2023 05:47 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  I could have included more B12 schools but I am just too tired of arguing with some of the B12 fans. They seem to be very sensitive about losing schools (particularly to the ACC).

Because it is the other way around, as demonstrated by the Pac.

If not taken by the B1G or SEC, VT will be in the Big XII. It's only a matter of time ...

Many Virginia Tech fans are unhappy with the ACC.

None of them want to join the Big 12.

You guys need to open up your wallets so you can go to the SEC where you belong. $109m is a lot closer to the bottom than the top of the ACC, we need you guys in the $140m range ASAP. Give us an excuse to invite you and you know we will.

(12-29-2023 01:29 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-27-2023 06:08 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(12-24-2023 06:01 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(12-24-2023 05:47 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  I could have included more B12 schools but I am just too tired of arguing with some of the B12 fans. They seem to be very sensitive about losing schools (particularly to the ACC).

Because it is the other way around, as demonstrated by the Pac.

If not taken by the B1G or SEC, VT will be in the Big XII. It's only a matter of time ...

Many Virginia Tech fans are unhappy with the ACC.

None of them want to join the Big 12.

You guys need to open up your wallets so you can go to the SEC where you belong. $109m is a lot closer to the bottom than the top of the ACC, we need you guys in the $140m range ASAP. Give us an excuse to invite you and you know we will.

If you want to play them you could a lot more often than you would if they joined the SEC

(12-27-2023 11:34 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  USF and Memphis. Memphis hoops is really good and their football is underrated. Put them in a better conference with better recruiting opportunities and they will do well. USF has a big upside and it's never bad to include the State of Florida in your conference - assuming FSU is gone.

Yeah Memphis seems like a no brainer. Better than Cal…

(12-29-2023 01:17 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  I don’t expect the ACC will lose more than two schools.

If the ACC loses FSU and no one else, then stay put.
If the ACC loses FSU and Miami, then add USF now.
If the ACC loses FSU and Clemson, then the ACC can either stay put or add USF or UConn depending on what ESPN wants.

There are lots of other variables that are essential before making a decision on expansion. When is FSU leaving (timing makes a difference)? How much is FSU paying (some schools may need money to stay; others may want to use the money to backfill)? What are ESPN’s priorities (currently, Disney’s focus is on cost reduction)? Which schools are available and under what terms?

My guess is that this lawsuit will take a long time to resolve and will not help FSU. Options will be different in one year, and very different in several years. OUT gave the B12 four years notice, which allowed the B12 and ESPN to collaborate on win-win-win solutions.