i still maintain that what we lost from last year has not been exceeded by this year's replacements. Dawes is not the scoring machine that Quincy was and no Cam all year has hurt...

(02-10-2024 05:08 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(02-10-2024 05:01 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  

(02-10-2024 04:54 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  65-69 final. Anyone here not expect the very predictable 2H comeback?

Out of the last 12 games, Rice has been outscored in the 2nd half 11 times.

I would say that is predictable.

And outscored by a wide margin in the majority of them. We've actually had first half leads in over half our games this season, and double digit leads in a number of them.

Here’s one more fun (not) stat.

Rice has now held a lead of 9+ points in 9 of our 12 conference games.
All but one of those have been 2nd half 9-point leads (vs SMU it was with 3.5 minutes left before halftime.

We’ve blown 8 of those 9 leads (against UTSA our late 14 point lead dwindled to 2 but we did not actually lose the lead)

Of those 8 lost 9-point leads we managed to come back to take the win (Memphis, Temple) in two of them

We are 3-6 in conference when leading by 9 at any point in the game

Speaking of scoring droughts, #6 Tenn went about 8 minutes without scoring in their game vs TAMU tonight. From 3:36 left in the 1H until the 15:28 mark in the 2H, the Vols were stuck on 28. Ouch!

For those interested in such things, seems like a very high % wager would to bet the Owls (in both FB and MBB) on covering ATS in first half but then losing ATS for the second half vs. just betting the outcome of entire game which theoretically should be 50/50 odds.

Of the four potential outcomes, odds seem to be >80% win or push w/ the SMU, USF, etc. MBB games and the UH, Texas, etc. football games being the most likely outcome (win) of the four scenarios.

The lose scenario of not cover in 1H but do cover in 2H seems pretty unusual. Other than the Tulsa game in MBB, can't think of many others that would fit that pattern.

Speaks to root causes of both programs inability to get over-hump with poor X's O's adjustments to other team halftime adjustments and lack of depth when foul trouble, fatigue, injury, etc. inevitably happens during the course of a game.

Actually in football, our second half performance wasn’t bad (especially if you don’t count the Texas and Houston games). Over the final 11 games, we were pretty much a wash in the second half (if my math is right, we were +18 in point differential and that includes a 21-0 beating to Texas State in the bowl game). The defense in particular was pretty decent in the second half. Now our offense was definitely scoring fewer points for sure.

If you include UT and UH, we were -15 in the second half on the season. I think we were +34 in the first half?

In basketball for the season, we are +12 in the first half and I think -90 in the second half?

Lou Holtz has said, "The first quarter indicates who had the better game plan, the second quarter indicates who made better in-game adjustments, the third quarter indicates who made better halftime adjustments, and the fourth quarter indicates who was in better physical condition."

Now just one game can be an outlier, but over te longer haul I would be interested to see how Rice performs in both football and basketball (1st 10 minutes, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th) based on those metrics.