(02-22-2024 12:30 PM)jmu98 Wrote:  The problem with NET rankings to compare teams overall is that schedules are very disparate. For instance a team that gets 10 bites at the quad 1 apple and wins 3 games is generally going to be compared favorably to a team that only gets a couple of chances and goes 1 and 1 with both games on the road. If JMU had gotten 10 quad one chances they could have won 3-5 and would be in tournament. On the flip side take some bubble teams and have them play our schedule and they probably are no better or maybe even worse. We can never know but there is too much emphasis on quad 1 victories and too little penalty for losing a ton of quad 1 games.

To this point, JMU (#50 in NET) is currently 1-1 against Q1. JMU's Q1 victory came against Michigan State (#23 in NET), a team with a 3-8 record against Q1.

App. State (#75 in NET) is currently 2-0 against Q1. App. State's signature Q1 victory came against Auburn (#7 in NET), a team with a 2-6 record against Q1.

The committee knows how hard it is for mid major teams to set up competitive OOC schedule.

A team that's 30-4 with a 1-1 record against Q1 seems like the perfect team to get slotted into the First Four in Dayton; however, I don't think the committee will provide such an opportunity to a team that's lost three of its five Q1/Q2 games against one league rival with a lesser at-large resume.

Ran a search on Bart Torvik (where JMU is #66) to try to identify teams with similar resumés to 2024 JMU:



Four years ago, we would not have even thought about JMU as a potential at-large for NCAA men's hoops.

All we can do is keep rootin' and enjoy this incredible season!

Here at Norfolk tonight and the Hapless hoopsters of Hampton Blvd are trying to hang with the Mountain Men from Boone. It was nip and tuck until the last 2 minutes of the first half then App State gained some separation.
36-29

You have to credit the Monarch fans. Even though the team is absolutely horrible, they have about 3000 fans in the seats. Lots o no shows from the season ticket holders.
Any other Sun Belt team in last place would have maybe 1000 fans in the seats at the end of the year.

It will take a minor miracle for ODU to win this game, but they haven’t quit. They gave the neers fits for 18 minutes and made them play ugly on offense.

Looky looky
9 minutes left and the 5-21 Monarchs are scaring the 20-5 Neers.

57-56 after ODU briefly took a lead then app buried a 3 off of a loose ball.

(02-22-2024 08:21 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  Looky looky
9 minutes left and the 5-21 Monarchs are scaring the 20-5 Neers.

57-56 after ODU briefly took a lead then app buried a 3 off of a loose ball.

App not looking back now. Again clear, you can't take a lead or opponent for granted - especially on the road.

But in terms of consistency, as expected - the top 4 teams show up and execute much better than the bottom 4 teams.

Root against these teams

If Troy wins tonight, who has the tie-breaker for the 2 seed? Us or them?

Tiebreaker would be record against App St, so Troy would win the tiebreaker since we didn't play each other, and they beat App

(02-22-2024 10:48 PM)JMUDukes1750 Wrote:  Tiebreaker would be record against App St, so Troy would win the tiebreaker since we didn't play each other, and they beat App

Thanks man. On a related note: Troy was down 19 to Arkansas State and are now down 5. Great game but some of the worst officiating I have ever seen. It seems the exact wrong calls have been made against each team for nearly every call. Beyond NBA levels of traveling has consistently not been called. Refs are awful

Valdez on Troy is going to be a problem for everyone in the conference. He is a certified dog.

Red Wolves at #157 in NET. Would become a Q2 win for JMU if they can move into the top 135.

Troy now up 1. Ark State really trying to Falcon this one away

Thank you Ark St…

Good win Ark State. Their crowd looked and sounded great on TV, well done

If you ever thought our bball program had been in the gutter, Ark St fans just stormed the court for beating 18-10 Troy. Woof

That arena was close to half full. However, around the court it was packed and loud. They mentioned a $ incentive for students deep in the 2nd half - $250. Also, they mentioned many times this was a national televised game - they have not had at home in like 20 years.

A really good win for them even with some players out and hurting. These 2 plus App are tough outs. A rematch with Southern Miss might get our fire going.

It is shaping up for a top 2 rumble with AppSt and the loser sweating an At Large bid.

Up to 48 in NET this morning and having three road games to finish if we win them and do so convincingly will help our NET and could get us to around 40 going into SBC tourney. It would be nice for Southern Ill to get into top 100 as that would give us another Quad 2 win. We also need App to win out and stay in top 75 so that our losses to them stay at Q1 and Q2 losses.

Really think there are two things that we have to hope that committee looks at if we were to lose in conference finals:

1) Our road/neutral record which would be an incredible 16-3 with almost no one that can match. I don't care who you are playing going 16-3 in those games is extremely difficult.
2) We really don't have any bad losses other than USM, but almost all bubble teams actually have more bad losses than us. Need the committee to really punish those teams that may have more Q1/2 wins, but more bad losses in many less chances.
3) Look at the eye test and have watched JMU play a little as that would help IMO
4) Look at our losses to App as just a bad match up for us and the fact that in 30+ other games we lost once

Finally, to me the only way we get in is to have committee overvalue the fact of how good we are on the road which shows we can win in tournament. Otherwise don't think we have the resume to get there.

(02-23-2024 09:49 AM)jmu98 Wrote:  Up to 48 in NET this morning and having three road games to finish if we win them and do so convincingly will help our NET and could get us to around 40 going into SBC tourney. It would be nice for Southern Ill to get into top 100 as that would give us another Quad 2 win. We also need App to win out and stay in top 75 so that our losses to them stay at Q1 and Q2 losses.

Really think there are two things that we have to hope that committee looks at if we were to lose in conference finals:

1) Our road/neutral record which would be an incredible 16-3 with almost no one that can match. I don't care who you are playing going 16-3 in those games is extremely difficult.
2) We really don't have any bad losses other than USM, but almost all bubble teams actually have more bad losses than us. Need the committee to really punish those teams that may have more Q1/2 wins, but more bad losses in many less chances.
3) Look at the eye test and have watched JMU play a little as that would help IMO
4) Look at our losses to App as just a bad match up for us and the fact that in 30+ other games we lost once

Finally, to me the only way we get in is to have committee overvalue the fact of how good we are on the road which shows we can win in tournament. Otherwise don't think we have the resume to get there.

We lost to App at home, so isn't our away record actually 16-2? Either way, it's incredible!

(02-23-2024 10:58 AM)Purple Wrote:  

(02-23-2024 09:49 AM)jmu98 Wrote:  Up to 48 in NET this morning and having three road games to finish if we win them and do so convincingly will help our NET and could get us to around 40 going into SBC tourney. It would be nice for Southern Ill to get into top 100 as that would give us another Quad 2 win. We also need App to win out and stay in top 75 so that our losses to them stay at Q1 and Q2 losses.

Really think there are two things that we have to hope that committee looks at if we were to lose in conference finals:

1) Our road/neutral record which would be an incredible 16-3 with almost no one that can match. I don't care who you are playing going 16-3 in those games is extremely difficult.
2) We really don't have any bad losses other than USM, but almost all bubble teams actually have more bad losses than us. Need the committee to really punish those teams that may have more Q1/2 wins, but more bad losses in many less chances.
3) Look at the eye test and have watched JMU play a little as that would help IMO
4) Look at our losses to App as just a bad match up for us and the fact that in 30+ other games we lost once

Finally, to me the only way we get in is to have committee overvalue the fact of how good we are on the road which shows we can win in tournament. Otherwise don't think we have the resume to get there.

We lost to App at home, so isn't our away record actually 16-2? Either way, it's incredible!

I think the 16-3 record was referring to a road/neutral court record that would include a conference finals loss to App St. Personally, as long as we have a healthy team for the tournament, I think we are peaking and will beat App (or anyone else in the finals).

Grand Canyon's loss yesterday is big for JMU's bubble chances. Basically eliminates their at-large opportunities.

Need to root against Princeton and Drake the next week and a half

(02-23-2024 11:50 AM)Dukes_Royals Wrote:  Grand Canyon's loss yesterday is big for JMU's bubble chances. Basically eliminates their at-large opportunities.

Need to root against Princeton and Drake the next week and a half

Tough for me to root against Drake. I do love their coffee cakes!