(02-23-2024 11:23 AM)olddawg Wrote:  I think the 16-3 record was referring to a road/neutral court record that would include a conference finals loss to App St. Personally, as long as we have a healthy team for the tournament, I think we are peaking and will beat App (or anyone else in the finals).

If we beat App in the finals at a neutral site, I'll completely agree we've learned and improved as a team throughout the course of the year and are worthy of a tournament slot. (Plus we'll get into the dance automatically.)

If App doesn't make the final and we beat someone else (Troy?), I still feel pretty good.
If App doesn't make the final and we lose to someone else? That's about the only case where the NET should come into play, and while on paper we should be in the conversation, you sure can't count on it.

If does makes the final and we lose to them, losing to the same team who isn't a blue-blood 3 times in one season is pretty damning, someone's going to really have to give you the benefit of the doubt, and we haven't earned that.

JMU controls its own destiny. Just win the SBCT. Stop worrying about NET and bubble teams. Go through the front door as SBC champs.

(02-23-2024 01:30 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  JMU controls its own destiny. Just win the SBCT. Stop worrying about NET and bubble teams. Go through the front door as SBC champs.

100% - burn the bridges, there is only one way out. we need to be bad asses - look app and the rest right in the eye and go after their $#it

land a 12 seed and punk some p5 pretender

Byington knows the mentality in the tournament is important too.
You can’t have any thoughts in your players heads that they might be able to sneak in the big dance if they lose the Sun Belt Tourney.
They have to play as if every game in Pensacola is do or die.
Last year was die as the Dukes were upset by #8 seed USA.

We’ve already seen a record breaking amount of physicality that went uncalled in regular season Sun Belt games… Clearly a directive from the head of officiating, Mike Eades, because it has been consistently a very loose whistle.
While that muddies up regular season conference games, it is excellent preparation for how tournament games are officiated. You better be able to play through a lot of contact or you will be going home.
Tourney starts in T-minus 10 days and counting.

(02-23-2024 01:41 PM)PGJMU Wrote:  

(02-23-2024 01:30 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  JMU controls its own destiny. Just win the SBCT. Stop worrying about NET and bubble teams. Go through the front door as SBC champs.

100% - burn the bridges, there is only one way out. we need to be bad asses - look app and the rest right in the eye and go after their $#it

land a 12 seed and punk some p5 pretender

Awesome post

(02-23-2024 01:41 PM)PGJMU Wrote:  100% - burn the bridges, there is only one way out. we need to be bad asses - look app and the rest right in the eye and go after their $#it

land a 12 seed and punk some p5 pretender

dare I say it, lock the damn gates?

(02-23-2024 03:57 PM)94computerguy Wrote:  

(02-23-2024 01:41 PM)PGJMU Wrote:  100% - burn the bridges, there is only one way out. we need to be bad asses - look app and the rest right in the eye and go after their $#it

land a 12 seed and punk some p5 pretender

dare I say it, lock the damn gates?

Please don’t. We’ll be 2-12 next year.

Lunardi has App State as a 13 seed and they have 3 excellent wins. We have to win the tournament even though we deserve to be in over some crap 19-14 take your pick team. I love watching the Dukes. Cannot wait for tomorrow.

JMU will care about the bubble if it doesn't win the SBC tourney, of course. That's why it's valid to have this conversation.

I don't particularly care for Joe Lunardi, at least with respect to his treatment of JMU. He's got his 68 teams in the tournament, plus 8 others as first four out and next four out, but doesn't have JMU anywhere in that top 76. Meanwhile, he just added back a team from his beloved A-10 in Richmond as a 12 seed ahead of App State. Richmond has a Net ranking of 70 and hasn't beaten anyone of note other than Dayton, a conference foe. He's also the guy that said he doesn't use the eye test. If you're a sapient human being, you have to use the eye test!

Has the NCAA ever released the formula for Net (i.e., the weightings), other than its components? The quadrant system, obviously, puts the power conferences in the driver's seat after they pile up wins playing overwhelming dominant home out of conference schedules. See the Big 12, which has 9 teams in Lunardi's bracket, plus Cincy in the next four out. Cincy is 5-8 in conference and a team that had to go to overtime to beat Howard. The Big 12, by the way, has 10 teams in the top 45 of Net.

Lunardi also has 8 teams in from the SEC, one of which has a net ranking of 58 (South Carolina is a 7 seed no less), while he's got another in his top 76 with a Net ranking of 68 (Miss). Evidently, Net rankings don't matter for Power conferences if it hurts them.

As JMU fans, we watch our team and know it's deserving of a bid. Unfortunately, the powers that be will do everything in their power to limit the Sun Belt's presence in the NCAA tournament to one team. I would argue that both JMU and App State are deserving of bids. Just a brief aside on App: not only did they beat a good Auburn team, but beat UNCW by 30 points. That's the same UNCW team that won at Kentucky (ranked 17th earlier this week and now a 6 seed in Joey's bracket). Both App State and Troy lost in overtime to what appeared to be a pretty bad Oregon State team early in the season. That's the same Oregon State team that also beat Arizona, one of the best teams in the country.

I'm in agreement with Hart, though. Let's hope that JMU continues to play well and is healthy, giving them the best chance of winning the SBC, the only sure thing at this point. And Hart was kind enough to give me kudos, so I'll return the favor. Hart was absolutely on point in saying: Watch MG3 orchestrate JMU's offense, since it's a beautiful thing, as he always makes the right play!

(02-24-2024 10:34 AM)Dukes84 Wrote:  JMU will care about the bubble if it doesn't win the SBC tourney, of course. That's why it's valid to have this conversation.

I don't particularly care for Joe Lunardi, at least with respect to his treatment of JMU. He's got his 68 teams in the tournament, plus 8 others as first four out and next four out, but doesn't have JMU anywhere in that top 76. Meanwhile, he just added back a team from his beloved A-10 in Richmond as a 12 seed ahead of App State. Richmond has a Net ranking of 70 and hasn't beaten anyone of note other than Dayton, a conference foe. He's also the guy that said he doesn't use the eye test. If you're a sapient human being, you have to use the eye test!

Has the NCAA ever released the formula for Net (i.e., the weightings), other than its components? The quadrant system, obviously, puts the power conferences in the driver's seat after they pile up wins playing overwhelming dominant home out of conference schedules. See the Big 12, which has 9 teams in Lunardi's bracket, plus Cincy in the next four out. Cincy is 5-8 in conference and a team that had to go to overtime to beat Howard. The Big 12, by the way, has 10 teams in the top 45 of Net.

Lunardi also has 8 teams in from the SEC, one of which has a net ranking of 58 (South Carolina is a 7 seed no less), while he's got another in his top 76 with a Net ranking of 68 (Miss). Evidently, Net rankings don't matter for Power conferences if it hurts them.

As JMU fans, we watch our team and know it's deserving of a bid. Unfortunately, the powers that be will do everything in their power to limit the Sun Belt's presence in the NCAA tournament to one team. I would argue that both JMU and App State are deserving of bids. Just a brief aside on App: not only did they beat a good Auburn team, but beat UNCW by 30 points. That's the same UNCW team that won at Kentucky (ranked 17th earlier this week and now a 6 seed in Joey's bracket). Both App State and Troy lost in overtime to what appeared to be a pretty bad Oregon State team early in the season. That's the same Oregon State team that also beat Arizona, one of the best teams in the country.

I'm in agreement with Hart, though. Let's hope that JMU continues to play well and is healthy, giving them the best chance of winning the SBC, the only sure thing at this point. And Hart was kind enough to give me kudos, so I'll return the favor. Hart was absolutely on point in saying: Watch MG3 orchestrate JMU's offense, since it's a beautiful thing, as he always makes the right play!

Richmond and jmu have one common opponent, Buffalo. Both played them at home.

Ticks won by 6
Dukes won by 15

You ever notice how lunardi is always grinning from ear to ear in his espn hits? It’s because he can’t believe they are still paying him all these years later to spit out a bunch of gibberish. No one takes him seriously or an ‘expert’ anymore.

(02-21-2024 09:48 PM)JMU_Rocks! Wrote:  20 wins - has always been a special mark for a team.

25 wins - is dominance.

30 wins - dominant, consistent, and fortunate.

With the SBC tourney we have that shot at 30 wins. Reach this, and our bubble watch will also revisit the football situation, and high-points of the basketball tradition.

Once we get to the NCAA tourney, we'll have a nice story to hype.

That's the old school way of doing business. The new school way is more about WHO you play. I happen to like the new way because it somewhat keeps programs from scheduling a soft OCC to pad their win column for post season.

I understand our schedule is weak but if I had Seton Hal, Providence, or a lot of other teams on bubble and have them play 15 road and neutral games and our schedule I can almost guarantee that they have no better record than we do if not one or more losses.

Therein lies the issue. They use NET when it is convenient and then ignore it when it is not and say well they have 4 quad 1 wins. Sure and 8 quad1 losses and a losing record on the road. Last time I checked ncaa game aren’t at home.

(02-24-2024 04:15 PM)jmu98 Wrote:  I understand our schedule is weak but if I had Seton Hal, Providence, or a lot of other teams on bubble and have them play 15 road and neutral games and our schedule I can almost guarantee that they have no better record than we do if not one or more losses.

Therein lies the issue. They use NET when it is convenient and then ignore it when it is not and say well they have 4 quad 1 wins. Sure and 8 quad1 losses and a losing record on the road. Last time I checked ncaa game aren’t at home.

What mid-majors should be screaming at every opportunity is that the NCAA should not reward schools for ducking competition. Using us as an example, we have tried to play most ACC and A10 teams, plus probably quite a few AAC schools. The team that refuses to play because they are afraid of losing should not be the school that gets the benefit of the doubt.

I feel like that is the one and only argument that would actually resonate with the casual fan.

App. St. up by 2 over Marshall. mid second half.

I honestly think we have a great resume. We need to make noise for the folks to realize we are legit.

The only time the NCAA talks about or cares about the overwhelming majority of NCAA schools, is in terms of an Anti-Trust exemption.

It is pretty easy to select who you want to, when the criteria is biased and subjective - if you need to bend it. Best thing for Sun Belt - would be for all teams to rule - whatever tournament they go to. I felt CUSA did that very well last year.

We dropped to 50 in the Net Ratings. Dropping only 2 slots after that game is a small price to pay for the lessons learned. It just is not a good matchup for us.
The next two games should be easier, and if we can pound one of them on the road, it's possible we get to mid 40s going into the SBCT.

Lowest seeded at large teams in 23 with their Net rankings, all 11 seeds and in the First Four:

Nevada - 37
Miss State - 49
Arizona State - 66
Pitt - 67

Those Net rankings are probably final and may have differed a bit from what they were on Selection Sunday. Being a mid major and currently 50 is pretty precarious. Thought I read that non power teams got 14 to 15 percent of at large bids over last 3 years, about 5 a year out of 36.

we had some good results last night that helped.

but of course some bubble teams won as well.

the good news is, we are starting to appear on most bracketologists radars now. Even Lunardi has put us on his board.

The other good news is, we should have four winnable games coming up. That gets us to 30 wins, which is likely to be the most in the country.

meanwhile, bubble teams around us will continue to drop games.

if we get to the SB Final, i think we are IN. That's my pick and i'm sticking with it.

Of course, yes, i still want us to win the SB tourney, remove all doubt and increase our seed.

but the bubble is something we should pay attention to as we could need it.

In a few weeks, someone’s going to have to set up a cheat sheet of teams we’re rooting for to win their conference tournament and stay out of the bubble conversation.