(03-01-2024 12:33 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-01-2024 12:25 AM)C2__ Wrote:  They're not getting in as anything higher than an 11 unless a bunch of teams ahead of them lose out or close to it and/or they beat St. Mary's twice. I may be able to see a 10 if the second scenario comes to pass but not an 8/9.

well on this bracketology they were an 11. If they beat St Mary's twice, along with tonight- yeah 10 seems like floor, and 8/9 seems to get pretty easy to see.

I wouldn't be surprised if they punched as high as a 6-seed if they won out, and earned the AQ. At that point, they're well within the top 20 NET (maybe top 15), probably 7-6 or 8-6 Q1/2, a great road/neutral mark. But this assumes two wins against Saint Mary's and another win over USF on a neutral court.

Part of what I find so interesting about Gonzaga, should they pull such a thing off, is that the parity within the Mountain West could wreck havoc on the seedings depending on how it finishes out there. You have a Nevada close to the cut line, and then you get Colorado State potentially slipping, with Boise in this "are we in, or are we not" zone. If you don't have SDSU, USU, or UNM definitively taking over, those "soup" seeds feeding the 1/2's the second game of the first weekend seem to be most of their logical places (with exceptions to SDSU and maybe one of USU or UNM). Nobody can "trend" out there. Meanwhile, here comes Gonzaga zooming upward.

But this is still way ahead of itself. Gonzaga needs to beat Saint Mary's. If they can't win in Moraga, I still think it's AQ or bust. Going 0-3 against SMC isn't going to look good, but, at least with last night's win, Gonzaga locked up second place in the conference.

I disagree. I think Gonzaga are in either way even if they lose to Saint Mary's twice in the next week. Their margin of victory last night and throughout the WCC season would've helped them which is a factor incorporated into the NET.

Nevada wins and probably gets themselves out of danger. 24-6. Games left with Boise and UNLV won't hurt if they lost. Conference tourney, looking at no worse than a 6 seed. Might just need to beat San Jose St in a 6/11 game to get in the tourney. If they even finish 6th.

(03-01-2024 10:08 PM)Mid-Major Hoops Enthusiast Wrote:  I disagree. I think Gonzaga are in either way even if they lose to Saint Mary's twice in the next week. Their margin of victory last night and throughout the WCC season would've helped them which is a factor incorporated into the NET.

You could be right if those on the bubble with them can’t sew things up on their own. The Big East teams, ACC, SEC, FAU, MVC, A10 (Dayton, really?!), and maybe one or two of the Mountain West teams (Colorado State specifically) could be propping up Gonzaga’s chances.

I still think it’s going to be hard, though, taking them when the only “legitimate” win (against another tournament team) is against someone who themselves could be a 5/6 seed. Like, I get MOV and NC-SOS…but, where are the good wins?

Honestly, imo, it’s not a bad thing for the sport if Gonzaga, Dayton, Michigan State, and some of these other troubled yet metrically beloved teams don’t go dancing. It’s okay for NET to have it wrong (because it really does).

(03-02-2024 12:38 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Nevada wins and probably gets themselves out of danger. 24-6. Games left with Boise and UNLV won't hurt if they lost. Conference tourney, looking at no worse than a 6 seed. Might just need to beat San Jose St in a 6/11 game to get in the tourney. If they even finish 6th.

I think they had to win against Fresno. I think they can feel safe with one one more win in the next two. The more winnable one should be UNLV because it’s at home (but UNLV is like red hot now), but, it would be a huge statement win if they take one out in Boise.

Interesting that they were NET 37 going into the game. They emerged victorious and are now dropped three slots to 40. Utah State dropped a place with the win over Air Force (who USU should have bludgeoned). USU-AFA helped me get back to sleep, though.

Nova wins the bubble game with Providence.

(03-02-2024 02:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Nova wins the bubble game with Providence.

One more, and I'm thinking it's a lock. No easy feat, but, at least they get Creighton at home if they can't win at Seton Hall. And Seton Hall isn't exactly on solid ground themselves, especially for work outside of the conference (and far better at home than on the road).

Villanova, Michigan State, and Gonzaga may be the most befuddling teams on the bubble this season. And if MSU can't beat Purdue tonight, their candidacy should definitely be spotlighted and questioned.

K-State has a huge game at Cincinnati tonight. This game is really the season imo. Beat them, split with Kansas/Iowa State and the Wildcats head to KC likely needing one win to get on the right side of the bubble. Lose, and hope is probably lost which means losing out is quite possible....

(03-02-2024 02:56 PM)TUowl06 Wrote:  K-State has a huge game at Cincinnati tonight. This game is really the season imo. Beat them, split with Kansas/Iowa State and the Wildcats head to KC likely needing one win to get on the right side of the bubble. Lose, and hope is probably lost which means losing out is quite possible....

so much for that.

So Kansas St. 7-0 in OT. Also 4-7 now in games decided by single digits in regulation.

Their resume could be so different in so many different ways this year.

Gonzaga looks like they aren't messing around.

Gonzaga is IN, assuming they hold on.

(03-02-2024 11:53 PM)C2__ Wrote:  Gonzaga is IN, assuming they hold on.

and frankly more likely to be wearing white in rd 1 than going to Dayton for first four.

(03-02-2024 11:55 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-02-2024 11:53 PM)C2__ Wrote:  Gonzaga is IN, assuming they hold on.

and frankly more likely to be wearing white in rd 1 than going to Dayton for first four.

Yeah, agreed. Maybe they're facing one of the first four that Thursday or Friday. Winning the WCC AQ looks like it could be a breeze. Where was this version of Gonzaga most of the season?

On the other side, I noticed that Michigan State jumped up two spots after losing to Purdue. Gotta love the NET. But, annoyance aside, where/how do you seed this team, really, if you do have them in a bracket?

(03-02-2024 11:55 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-02-2024 11:53 PM)C2__ Wrote:  Gonzaga is IN, assuming they hold on.

and frankly more likely to be wearing white in rd 1 than going to Dayton for first four.

They currently have a NET rank of 17, with a 23-6 record. Five of their losses are Q1 and the sixth is Q2. They have to be clearly off the bubble.