(03-03-2024 10:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 10:15 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 05:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’re in a rare place where I think you could realistically put two men together in a room, the Big 10 and SEC commissioners, and hammer out a consensus agreement on what the top level of college sports looks like and who gets to be a part of it. Below is a summary of what I think each side’s goals and objectives are:

Big 10–
1. wants Notre Dame and wants the SEC to agree to a post season that puts extreme pressure on ND to join a conference to ensure access.

2. would like a toe hold in FL

3. has interest in the VA/NC region

SEC—
1. wants to control a majority of the state of FL

2. wants to prevent incursions/competition into the Southeast, including VA/NC


————
If both sides were willing to come to an agreement that 24 as their membership cap, I think there could be a consensus that makes everyone relatively happy.

Conceding ND to the Big 10 is a relatively easy move so long as the SEC gets something in return, like let’s say FSU.

I also don’t see VA/NC as being critical to the Big 10. Maybe they give that up for Miami and an agreement that keeps the SEC from expanding beyond Missouri in the Midwest (Kansas). If they are in step though, that FL presence isn’t as necessary.

If both sides are working collectively and with that a mean in the future they are taking their media rights to market as a package, it actually probably makes sense for the Big 10 to fill the holes in their collective national footprint—places like the Bay Area, AZ, and Colorado.

Maybe the end product is:

Big 10: +ND, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Ariz St, Colorado
SEC: +FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT, Miami, GT/L’ville

The joint Big/SEC collective is truly national—Boston and Hartford are about the only major markets who aren’t a part of the footprint and New England has never been a collegiate sports hotbed.

Its probably a bigger group than necessary but the extra 8 or so members can help absorb losses and provide inventory to the T2 and T3 rights.

I think you are missing one step here.

FOX bends Petitti's ear on what they feel they must have: Notre Dame to cover the value of other moves. A toe hold in Florida for recruiting connections. A toe hold in Texas for the same.

Big 10 agrees to suspend AAU requirements for T.C.U.. Big 10 agrees to pursue FSU for 35% of the Florida College Sports viewers. Big 10 then gets clearance for the next 3 additions of their choice.

ESPN bends Sankey's ear. They want to keep Duke, UNC and Virginia. They want to keep the majority of the Florida market so Miami or FSU. They want the final jewel of the Big 12, Kansas. So, the SEC's hands are tied on 5 moves in the Carolinas and Virginia. Miami or FSU so 6. Kansas so 7. The SEC has one choice, Clemson or Colorado, or Georgia Tech. The SEC takes Clemson.

Why in the hell would this be so? UVa and UNC simply refuse to cooperate unless the gang stays together. You could simply bypass them and let the SEC move to 20 with Clemson, FSU if they could get them, Kansas and Miami, but all that does is delay the ultimate settlement and ESPN isn't free to just let the ACC contract lapse unless they've secured what they want.

Clemson, Duke, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech take the SEC to 24. Except for FSU and Georgia Tech ESPN keeps the hold it wants over the region.

FOX gets FSU's 35% of the Florida market, Notre Dame does join the Big 10, T.C.U is #21, and the Big 10 picks up Georgia Tech, Stanford, and Arizona State to go to 24.

FOX is appeased, ESPN pays for what they want. The SEC stays essentially regional. And the Big 10 adds another academic stalwart and a pair of FOI (friends of the Irish).

I’m working from the assumption that they are building out their membership with the idea that for the next cycle, there will be no Big 10 package and SEC package—they’ll be packaging content and courting all bidders. No more of ESPN and FOX pitting the two leagues against each other.

While the networks will probably not be thrilled about the “content” making a power play and flexing their advantage, it would open up the opportunity for them to access parts of the country they can’t access with their current content portfolios.

I see no need for the Big 10 and SEC to change their natures too much to accomplish this and sharing media rights was a given. FOX and ESPN will cooperate on the carriage, sublet to the other networks and make their money on the closed product line. Together it works to all of our advantages. An opt in though will have to be allowed and if enough do a third, though likely lesser paid conference may be needed.

That's the point about my proposal. The Big 10 goes back before the last expansion but trades Nebraska for Notre Dame. The SEC goes back to 2010, dumps Arkansas, but adds FSU, Clemson and UNC. Nebraska, Arkansas and the later additions to both along with 4 Big 12/ACC members form a western conference that is about what a partial Big 12/Pac 10 merger might have looked like in 2010 with 7 Big 12, 6 Pac 10 and Arkansas.

The one scenario the Big 10 doesn’t want to see is Florida St and Clemson to the SEC and that’s it.

To land ND, the Big 10 needs to have the ACC severely weakened.

(03-03-2024 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’re in a rare place where I think you could realistically put two men together in a room, the Big 10 and SEC commissioners, and hammer out a consensus agreement on what the top level of college sports looks like and who gets to be a part of it. Below is a summary of what I think each side’s goals and objectives are:

Big 10–
1. wants Notre Dame and wants the SEC to agree to a post season that puts extreme pressure on ND to join a conference to ensure access.

2. would like a toe hold in FL

3. has interest in the VA/NC region

SEC—
1. wants to control a majority of the state of FL

2. wants to prevent incursions/competition into the Southeast, including VA/NC


————
If both sides were willing to come to an agreement that 24 as their membership cap, I think there could be a consensus that makes everyone relatively happy.

Conceding ND to the Big 10 is a relatively easy move so long as the SEC gets something in return, like let’s say FSU.

I also don’t see VA/NC as being critical to the Big 10. Maybe they give that up for Miami and an agreement that keeps the SEC from expanding beyond Missouri in the Midwest (Kansas). If they are in step though, that FL presence isn’t as necessary.

If both sides are working collectively and with that a mean in the future they are taking their media rights to market as a package, it actually probably makes sense for the Big 10 to fill the holes in their collective national footprint—places like the Bay Area, AZ, and Colorado.

Maybe the end product is:

Big 10: +ND, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Ariz St, Colorado
SEC: +FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT, Miami, GT/L’ville

The joint Big/SEC collective is truly national—Boston and Hartford are about the only major markets who aren’t a part of the footprint and New England has never been a collegiate sports hotbed.

Its probably a bigger group than necessary but the extra 8 or so members can help absorb losses and provide inventory to the T2 and T3 rights.

I agree with most of this. I disagree with the premise that each league would agree to go to 24. I'm not even sure both P-2 leagues are motivated to have the same number of members. Stewart Mandel already reported that ESPN doesn't really want to pay the SEC more for more content. The B1G and FOX are definitely more aggressive on expansion, but they're exclusively hunting for big fish like ND and FSU right now.

I don't think there are that many schools not already in the B1G or SEC that are good fits for either league and would drive $100 million or more in annual revenue, certainly not nearly 15. Let's list them:

1) Notre Dame easily clears pro rata upon entry.

2) I believe Florida State is worth it and could get pro rata immediately, especially if FOX and the B1G are willing to pony up to snatch them from ESPN. People say FSU not being AAU will harm their chances. FSU is close enough to the AAU that people were surprised they didn't get in last year.

3) North Carolina is probably P-2 worthy. People poo-poo on their 800K per football game viewership, but that will easily double in the B1G or SEC when they aren't stuck on the CW and ACCN, neither of which is Nielsen rated. I think the politics as non-starter hubbub for the Heels is over stated. No politician will keep UNC out of the SEC because NC State won't get an invite.

4) Clemson? No clue what will happen with CU. It would seem like a twice this decade football national champion would be a shoe-in for the SEC, but I haven't really heard any good realignment news for the Tigers. Being redundant to the SEC and presumably incompatible with the Big Ten doesn't bode well for Clemson.

5) Miami? Again, one would think a brand like the Canes would headed to the P-2, but I think Miami has to hope both leagues grow beyond 18-20 members, which I don't think is likely. They do have being in South Florida on their side, which I think the B1G wants more than the SEC.

6) Virginia? Personally, as a Terp, I don't see the value of Virginia in the P-2, but the trend seems to be that the SEC is likely for them. At least they're talked about as having a spot.

That's maybe 6 out of 14 teams that can drive the value to meet the P-2 pro rata. Who's left that the SEC (ESPN) and B1G (FOX) didn't already decide to pass on when the Pac-12 broke up?

I think people need to give up on Cal and Stanford in the B1G. FOX took a look and passed on getting them...even at a discounted rate. Those schools have not signaled in any way that they are working toward the P-2. By comparison, Kansas is doing nothing but signaling that it wants to be in the P-2.

(03-05-2024 03:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The one scenario the Big 10 doesn’t want to see is Florida St and Clemson to the SEC and that’s it.

To land ND, the Big 10 needs to have the ACC severely weakened.

There is another way the B1G could land ND, IMHO, even if FSU & clemson go to the SEC, but the B1G doesn't really want to do it because it's not easy: 100% merger with the SEC.

I'm sure Michigan doesn't relish the thought of non-AAU SEC teams on its fabled football field or baskrtball court, but that could be just what is needed to land Notre Dame.

(03-05-2024 07:33 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  

(03-05-2024 03:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The one scenario the Big 10 doesn’t want to see is Florida St and Clemson to the SEC and that’s it.

To land ND, the Big 10 needs to have the ACC severely weakened.

There is another way the B1G could land ND, IMHO, even if FSU & clemson go to the SEC, but the B1G doesn't really want to do it because it's not easy: 100% merger with the SEC.

I'm sure Michigan doesn't relish the thought of non-AAU SEC teams on its fabled football field or baskrtball court, but that could be just what is needed to land Notre Dame.

Full merger doesn’t necessarily mean both sides would play each other regularly, if at all. You have a Big 10 “conference” and an SEC “conference” and both sides have their own playoff and their champs face in a title, like MLB, NFL, NHL, and the NBA.

(03-03-2024 05:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’re in a rare place where I think you could realistically put two men together in a room, the Big 10 and SEC commissioners, and hammer out a consensus agreement on what the top level of college sports looks like and who gets to be a part of it. Below is a summary of what I think each side’s goals and objectives are:

Big 10–
1. wants Notre Dame and wants the SEC to agree to a post season that puts extreme pressure on ND to join a conference to ensure access.

2. would like a toe hold in FL

3. has interest in the VA/NC region

SEC—
1. wants to control a majority of the state of FL

2. wants to prevent incursions/competition into the Southeast, including VA/NC


————
If both sides were willing to come to an agreement that 24 as their membership cap, I think there could be a consensus that makes everyone relatively happy.

Conceding ND to the Big 10 is a relatively easy move so long as the SEC gets something in return, like let’s say FSU.

I also don’t see VA/NC as being critical to the Big 10. Maybe they give that up for Miami and an agreement that keeps the SEC from expanding beyond Missouri in the Midwest (Kansas). If they are in step though, that FL presence isn’t as necessary.

If both sides are working collectively and with that a mean in the future they are taking their media rights to market as a package, it actually probably makes sense for the Big 10 to fill the holes in their collective national footprint—places like the Bay Area, AZ, and Colorado.

Maybe the end product is:

Big 10: +ND, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Ariz St, Colorado
SEC: +FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT, Miami, GT/L’ville

The joint Big/SEC collective is truly national—Boston and Hartford are about the only major markets who aren’t a part of the footprint and New England has never been a collegiate sports hotbed.

Its probably a bigger group than necessary but the extra 8 or so members can help absorb losses and provide inventory to the T2 and T3 rights.

I think you are missing one step here.

FOX bends Petitti's ear on what they feel they must have: Notre Dame to cover the value of other moves. A toe hold in Florida for recruiting connections. A toe hold in Texas for the same.

Big 10 agrees to suspend AAU requirements for T.C.U.. Big 10 agrees to pursue FSU for 35% of the Florida College Sports viewers. Big 10 then gets clearance for the next 3 additions of their choice.

ESPN bends Sankey's ear. They want to keep Duke, UNC and Virginia. They want to keep the majority of the Florida market so Miami or FSU. They want the final jewel of the Big 12, Kansas. So, the SEC's hands are tied on 5 moves in the Carolinas and Virginia. Miami or FSU so 6. Kansas so 7. The SEC has one choice, Clemson or Colorado, or Georgia Tech. The SEC takes Clemson.

Why in the hell would this be so? UVa and UNC simply refuse to cooperate unless the gang stays together. You could simply bypass them and let the SEC move to 20 with Clemson, FSU if they could get them, Kansas and Miami, but all that does is delay the ultimate settlement and ESPN isn't free to just let the ACC contract lapse unless they've secured what they want.

Clemson, Duke, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech take the SEC to 24. Except for FSU and Georgia Tech ESPN keeps the hold it wants over the region.

FOX gets FSU's 35% of the Florida market, Notre Dame does join the Big 10, T.C.U is #21, and the Big 10 picks up Georgia Tech, Stanford, and Arizona State to go to 24.

FOX is appeased, ESPN pays for what they want. The SEC stays essentially regional. And the Big 10 adds another academic stalwart and a pair of FOI (friends of the Irish).

I think you're both correct in several things. But I think there are a few presumptions that are a stretch.

First, about Notre Dame:

I know it's a fanboy dream for some fans to add Notre Dame to a conference. And so it's a topic all over punditry.

There's something about a school doing something "different", that seems to bother some people. (Sesame street's "one of these things is not like the other")

The thing is, Notre Dame being independent is actually good for college sports.

Plus, NBC is a media partner for the Big10 now. If anything, Fox is unlikely to be pushing to rock that boat. Besides, all we're talking about is who gets paid for x-number of football home games.

Notre Dame sports are already in a conference - it's called the ACC.

All things being equal, I think it would be more likely for Fox to pick up the ACC media deal, than to break tradition, and mess with institutional marketing, by having ND "appear" to join a conference in football. There's money being made there. I don't think that apple-cart is likely to get upturned.

Next, the state of Florida

A "negotiation", is just that. It isn't, "hey let's roll over and give the SEC whatever they want".

I think Fighting Muskie's very right by saying that the Big10 wants into Florida.

And the SEC saying "no" is very unlikely to stop that.

FSU and Miami are in demand and they know it. And FSU has not been shy about saying that this is about the money.

Personally, I think, due to institutional "fit", among other things, that FSU is likely headed to the SEC. But current events has thrown a monkey wrench into that.

That said, it's no different than exiting the ACC - it just means that to get FSU, the SEC likely pays more, and possibly makes some concessions. Fans will stand up and say that the SEC doesn't "need" FSU and so on, but I have no doubt that backroom deals will go on.

I think it'll come down to whomever rolls up the bigger money truck.

And while we're talking about Florida, there's also "travel partners". Fox has already shown in California what they are likely to want. I think the Big10 could add some combination of 2 Florida schools and/or GT, and actually not need any more from the ACC.

The VA/NC schools

I think this is a detente. both the P2 would "like" the addition of these states. But it isn't "mandatory". They aren't power football schools. And though the state of NC is growing, it's not Florida.

So I don't think that either P2 conference is likely to roll up that money truck for these.

In the negotiation, I think both sides will look at these schools and offer to let the other side take them in order to get X Y or Z.

Personally, I think the best move for the P2 may well be to leave them (except maybe VT) in the ACC, and go for other low hanging fruit.

The next best move would be to split them in some way. I think the SEC is less likely to want Duke - it's essentially another Vanderbilt, and they already have one of those. And they've shown they have no problem leaving rivals behind (OK State, for example). Plus NC State adds a wrinkle now.

I really could see the SEC adding VT, and seeing if - between the addition of VT and Clemson - that might be enough to get the NC market.

If one of the P2 does go after some combination of 3 or more VA/NC schools, and "if" 24 is the target number (which, I don't think it is), then who ever does, has fewer options for the rest of the map.

North Carolina is nice, but if the P2 are really carving up fbs, that sounds like shooting one's self in the foot.

If anything, looking at the whole board, I think it makes more sense for the P2, to take the best schools from the Big12 instead, and leave the ACC intact. That leaves options on the table.

Kansas

I think Kansas and Missouri had a very messy divorce and I don't think either side cares if they see the other again.

I think re-uniting them is a fan's dream.

That said, Kansas could go either way.

I think they lean towards the Big10 though. Their priorities seem to more align that way - Academics/AAU, basketball, etc. They aren't a Kentucky or a Vandy. They're their own thing.

That said, there's a possibility that the snobbish schools in the Big10 might well look down their noses at Kansas.

I don't think so though. There are more and new voting members of the conference. And I think the western schools in particular are likely to want to see Kansas added.

The 4Cs, and Stanford and Cal

I really don't know if they get added.

I think the Big10 likely wants into the State of Arizona, but I don't think there is an immediate "push" to get that done. I don't think the SEC is interested in that direction at all.

And I thin Utah only happens if the Big10 goes to 28 schools.

It sounds like Cal really burned the bridge to the Big10, and they just don't have the money/market/football fan draw, to compensate for that.

Stanford really depends on if ND and the ACC stay viable. If the P2 esentially kill the ACC or leave it a husk of what it was, I think Stanford either follows ND to independence, or possibly gets a Big10 invite down the road - possibly paired with Colorado.

So what does this look like?

Both the Big10 and the SEC are likely to get into Florida.

NC et all will come down to negotiations. Which may also depend on whether the P2 wants the ACC to stick around as an extra "buffer" conference of sorts.

Funny thing, I think if negotiations led to the Big10 adding Kansas and the SEC adding NC, both sides would call that a "win", and likely look at the other side as being foolish in choosing what they did.

So besides guessing at how the Florida situation plays out. I think the following could happen:

The P2 decide to leave "most" of the ACC and the Big12 intact. espn and Fox like this, because it allows for a "two-tier" pay structure, without destabilizing conferences.

So:

Big10 - 2 Florida schools. Kansas.

SEC - Another Florida school. Clemson. VT.

That's 3 schools each.

Then it's about GT, the VA/NC schools, and the 4Cs. With a few others possibly winning the lottery depending on how the cards fall.

It should be interesting to see how messy this all turns out.

(03-05-2024 08:11 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 05:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’re in a rare place where I think you could realistically put two men together in a room, the Big 10 and SEC commissioners, and hammer out a consensus agreement on what the top level of college sports looks like and who gets to be a part of it. Below is a summary of what I think each side’s goals and objectives are:

Big 10–
1. wants Notre Dame and wants the SEC to agree to a post season that puts extreme pressure on ND to join a conference to ensure access.

2. would like a toe hold in FL

3. has interest in the VA/NC region

SEC—
1. wants to control a majority of the state of FL

2. wants to prevent incursions/competition into the Southeast, including VA/NC


————
If both sides were willing to come to an agreement that 24 as their membership cap, I think there could be a consensus that makes everyone relatively happy.

Conceding ND to the Big 10 is a relatively easy move so long as the SEC gets something in return, like let’s say FSU.

I also don’t see VA/NC as being critical to the Big 10. Maybe they give that up for Miami and an agreement that keeps the SEC from expanding beyond Missouri in the Midwest (Kansas). If they are in step though, that FL presence isn’t as necessary.

If both sides are working collectively and with that a mean in the future they are taking their media rights to market as a package, it actually probably makes sense for the Big 10 to fill the holes in their collective national footprint—places like the Bay Area, AZ, and Colorado.

Maybe the end product is:

Big 10: +ND, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Ariz St, Colorado
SEC: +FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT, Miami, GT/L’ville

The joint Big/SEC collective is truly national—Boston and Hartford are about the only major markets who aren’t a part of the footprint and New England has never been a collegiate sports hotbed.

Its probably a bigger group than necessary but the extra 8 or so members can help absorb losses and provide inventory to the T2 and T3 rights.

I think you are missing one step here.

FOX bends Petitti's ear on what they feel they must have: Notre Dame to cover the value of other moves. A toe hold in Florida for recruiting connections. A toe hold in Texas for the same.

Big 10 agrees to suspend AAU requirements for T.C.U.. Big 10 agrees to pursue FSU for 35% of the Florida College Sports viewers. Big 10 then gets clearance for the next 3 additions of their choice.

ESPN bends Sankey's ear. They want to keep Duke, UNC and Virginia. They want to keep the majority of the Florida market so Miami or FSU. They want the final jewel of the Big 12, Kansas. So, the SEC's hands are tied on 5 moves in the Carolinas and Virginia. Miami or FSU so 6. Kansas so 7. The SEC has one choice, Clemson or Colorado, or Georgia Tech. The SEC takes Clemson.

Why in the hell would this be so? UVa and UNC simply refuse to cooperate unless the gang stays together. You could simply bypass them and let the SEC move to 20 with Clemson, FSU if they could get them, Kansas and Miami, but all that does is delay the ultimate settlement and ESPN isn't free to just let the ACC contract lapse unless they've secured what they want.

Clemson, Duke, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech take the SEC to 24. Except for FSU and Georgia Tech ESPN keeps the hold it wants over the region.

FOX gets FSU's 35% of the Florida market, Notre Dame does join the Big 10, T.C.U is #21, and the Big 10 picks up Georgia Tech, Stanford, and Arizona State to go to 24.

FOX is appeased, ESPN pays for what they want. The SEC stays essentially regional. And the Big 10 adds another academic stalwart and a pair of FOI (friends of the Irish).

I think you're both correct in several things. But I think there are a few presumptions that are a stretch.

First, about Notre Dame:

I know it's a fanboy dream for some fans to add Notre Dame to a conference. And so it's a topic all over punditry.

There's something about a school doing something "different", that seems to bother some people. (Sesame street's "one of these things is not like the other")

The thing is, Notre Dame being independent is actually good for college sports.

Plus, NBC is a media partner for the Big10 now. If anything, Fox is unlikely to be pushing to rock that boat. Besides, all we're talking about is who gets paid for x-number of football home games.

Notre Dame sports are already in a conference - it's called the ACC.

All things being equal, I think it would be more likely for Fox to pick up the ACC media deal, than to break tradition, and mess with institutional marketing, by having ND "appear" to join a conference in football. There's money being made there. I don't think that apple-cart is likely to get upturned.

Next, the state of Florida

A "negotiation", is just that. It isn't, "hey let's roll over and give the SEC whatever they want".

I think Fighting Muskie's very right by saying that the Big10 wants into Florida.

And the SEC saying "no" is very unlikely to stop that.

FSU and Miami are in demand and they know it. And FSU has not been shy about saying that this is about the money.

Personally, I think, due to institutional "fit", among other things, that FSU is likely headed to the SEC. But current events has thrown a monkey wrench into that.

That said, it's no different than exiting the ACC - it just means that to get FSU, the SEC likely pays more, and possibly makes some concessions. Fans will stand up and say that the SEC doesn't "need" FSU and so on, but I have no doubt that backroom deals will go on.

I think it'll come down to whomever rolls up the bigger money truck.

And while we're talking about Florida, there's also "travel partners". Fox has already shown in California what they are likely to want. I think the Big10 could add some combination of 2 Florida schools and/or GT, and actually not need any more from the ACC.

The VA/NC schools

I think this is a detente. both the P2 would "like" the addition of these states. But it isn't "mandatory". They aren't power football schools. And though the state of NC is growing, it's not Florida.

So I don't think that either P2 conference is likely to roll up that money truck for these.

In the negotiation, I think both sides will look at these schools and offer to let the other side take them in order to get X Y or Z.

Personally, I think the best move for the P2 may well be to leave them (except maybe VT) in the ACC, and go for other low hanging fruit.

The next best move would be to split them in some way. I think the SEC is less likely to want Duke - it's essentially another Vanderbilt, and they already have one of those. And they've shown they have no problem leaving rivals behind (OK State, for example). Plus NC State adds a wrinkle now.

I really could see the SEC adding VT, and seeing if - between the addition of VT and Clemson - that might be enough to get the NC market.

If one of the P2 does go after some combination of 3 or more VA/NC schools, and "if" 24 is the target number (which, I don't think it is), then who ever does, has fewer options for the rest of the map.

North Carolina is nice, but if the P2 are really carving up fbs, that sounds like shooting one's self in the foot.

If anything, looking at the whole board, I think it makes more sense for the P2, to take the best schools from the Big12 instead, and leave the ACC intact. That leaves options on the table.

Kansas

I think Kansas and Missouri had a very messy divorce and I don't think either side cares if they see the other again.

I think re-uniting them is a fan's dream.

That said, Kansas could go either way.

I think they lean towards the Big10 though. Their priorities seem to more align that way - Academics/AAU, basketball, etc. They aren't a Kentucky or a Vandy. They're their own thing.

That said, there's a possibility that the snobbish schools in the Big10 might well look down their noses at Kansas.

I don't think so though. There are more and new voting members of the conference. And I think the western schools in particular are likely to want to see Kansas added.

The 4Cs, and Stanford and Cal

I really don't know if they get added.

I think the Big10 likely wants into the State of Arizona, but I don't think there is an immediate "push" to get that done. I don't think the SEC is interested in that direction at all.

And I thin Utah only happens if the Big10 goes to 28 schools.

It sounds like Cal really burned the bridge to the Big10, and they just don't have the money/market/football fan draw, to compensate for that.

Stanford really depends on if ND and the ACC stay viable. If the P2 esentially kill the ACC or leave it a husk of what it was, I think Stanford either follows ND to independence, or possibly gets a Big10 invite down the road - possibly paired with Colorado.

So what does this look like?

Both the Big10 and the SEC are likely to get into Florida.

NC et all will come down to negotiations. Which may also depend on whether the P2 wants the ACC to stick around as an extra "buffer" conference of sorts.

Funny thing, I think if negotiations led to the Big10 adding Kansas and the SEC adding NC, both sides would call that a "win", and likely look at the other side as being foolish in choosing what they did.

So besides guessing at how the Florida situation plays out. I think the following could happen:

The P2 decide to leave "most" of the ACC and the Big12 intact. espn and Fox like this, because it allows for a "two-tier" pay structure, without destabilizing conferences.

So:

Big10 - 2 Florida schools. Kansas.

SEC - Another Florida school. Clemson. VT.

That's 3 schools each.

Then it's about GT, the VA/NC schools, and the 4Cs. With a few others possibly winning the lottery depending on how the cards fall.

It should be interesting to see how messy this all turns out.

It's a pleasant fiction. ESPN will decide any negotiations and will do it with FOX. Then the networks will pay for the moves. If FOX tries to take one by force all bets are off and should the SEC acquire FSU and Clemson hosting its own playoff is still on the table.

IOW, nothing is a done deal. ESPN and FOX both see a lot of money on the table and could decide to work together to get it, manage the process, and set the terms. If one overreaches with the other, it all heads in a different direction.

The SEC has done quite well in landing its objectives. Of the original 6 to get to 16 the SEC has landed 4 and the other 2 are still in play. South Carolina and Missouri were serendipities. North Carolina, Virginia, Duke, Florida State/Miami, and Clemson are in play. I like our odds on 5 of them. Kansas is possible too.

What matters here the most is the answer to this question? Which of these schools would ESPN most like to keep 100% access to for broadcasting? When ESPN answers that only then will the Big 10 know what their options are. Any schools to which ESPN offers FOX access becomes your potential additions.

The SEC and Big 10 aren't negotiating. Nor should they. Their business is to decide how the new upper tier will be governed and how compliance with the courts will transpire.

(03-05-2024 08:32 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-05-2024 08:11 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 05:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’re in a rare place where I think you could realistically put two men together in a room, the Big 10 and SEC commissioners, and hammer out a consensus agreement on what the top level of college sports looks like and who gets to be a part of it. Below is a summary of what I think each side’s goals and objectives are:

Big 10–
1. wants Notre Dame and wants the SEC to agree to a post season that puts extreme pressure on ND to join a conference to ensure access.

2. would like a toe hold in FL

3. has interest in the VA/NC region

SEC—
1. wants to control a majority of the state of FL

2. wants to prevent incursions/competition into the Southeast, including VA/NC


————
If both sides were willing to come to an agreement that 24 as their membership cap, I think there could be a consensus that makes everyone relatively happy.

Conceding ND to the Big 10 is a relatively easy move so long as the SEC gets something in return, like let’s say FSU.

I also don’t see VA/NC as being critical to the Big 10. Maybe they give that up for Miami and an agreement that keeps the SEC from expanding beyond Missouri in the Midwest (Kansas). If they are in step though, that FL presence isn’t as necessary.

If both sides are working collectively and with that a mean in the future they are taking their media rights to market as a package, it actually probably makes sense for the Big 10 to fill the holes in their collective national footprint—places like the Bay Area, AZ, and Colorado.

Maybe the end product is:

Big 10: +ND, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Ariz St, Colorado
SEC: +FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT, Miami, GT/L’ville

The joint Big/SEC collective is truly national—Boston and Hartford are about the only major markets who aren’t a part of the footprint and New England has never been a collegiate sports hotbed.

Its probably a bigger group than necessary but the extra 8 or so members can help absorb losses and provide inventory to the T2 and T3 rights.

I think you are missing one step here.

FOX bends Petitti's ear on what they feel they must have: Notre Dame to cover the value of other moves. A toe hold in Florida for recruiting connections. A toe hold in Texas for the same.

Big 10 agrees to suspend AAU requirements for T.C.U.. Big 10 agrees to pursue FSU for 35% of the Florida College Sports viewers. Big 10 then gets clearance for the next 3 additions of their choice.

ESPN bends Sankey's ear. They want to keep Duke, UNC and Virginia. They want to keep the majority of the Florida market so Miami or FSU. They want the final jewel of the Big 12, Kansas. So, the SEC's hands are tied on 5 moves in the Carolinas and Virginia. Miami or FSU so 6. Kansas so 7. The SEC has one choice, Clemson or Colorado, or Georgia Tech. The SEC takes Clemson.

Why in the hell would this be so? UVa and UNC simply refuse to cooperate unless the gang stays together. You could simply bypass them and let the SEC move to 20 with Clemson, FSU if they could get them, Kansas and Miami, but all that does is delay the ultimate settlement and ESPN isn't free to just let the ACC contract lapse unless they've secured what they want.

Clemson, Duke, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech take the SEC to 24. Except for FSU and Georgia Tech ESPN keeps the hold it wants over the region.

FOX gets FSU's 35% of the Florida market, Notre Dame does join the Big 10, T.C.U is #21, and the Big 10 picks up Georgia Tech, Stanford, and Arizona State to go to 24.

FOX is appeased, ESPN pays for what they want. The SEC stays essentially regional. And the Big 10 adds another academic stalwart and a pair of FOI (friends of the Irish).

I think you're both correct in several things. But I think there are a few presumptions that are a stretch.

First, about Notre Dame:

I know it's a fanboy dream for some fans to add Notre Dame to a conference. And so it's a topic all over punditry.

There's something about a school doing something "different", that seems to bother some people. (Sesame street's "one of these things is not like the other")

The thing is, Notre Dame being independent is actually good for college sports.

Plus, NBC is a media partner for the Big10 now. If anything, Fox is unlikely to be pushing to rock that boat. Besides, all we're talking about is who gets paid for x-number of football home games.

Notre Dame sports are already in a conference - it's called the ACC.

All things being equal, I think it would be more likely for Fox to pick up the ACC media deal, than to break tradition, and mess with institutional marketing, by having ND "appear" to join a conference in football. There's money being made there. I don't think that apple-cart is likely to get upturned.

Next, the state of Florida

A "negotiation", is just that. It isn't, "hey let's roll over and give the SEC whatever they want".

I think Fighting Muskie's very right by saying that the Big10 wants into Florida.

And the SEC saying "no" is very unlikely to stop that.

FSU and Miami are in demand and they know it. And FSU has not been shy about saying that this is about the money.

Personally, I think, due to institutional "fit", among other things, that FSU is likely headed to the SEC. But current events has thrown a monkey wrench into that.

That said, it's no different than exiting the ACC - it just means that to get FSU, the SEC likely pays more, and possibly makes some concessions. Fans will stand up and say that the SEC doesn't "need" FSU and so on, but I have no doubt that backroom deals will go on.

I think it'll come down to whomever rolls up the bigger money truck.

And while we're talking about Florida, there's also "travel partners". Fox has already shown in California what they are likely to want. I think the Big10 could add some combination of 2 Florida schools and/or GT, and actually not need any more from the ACC.

The VA/NC schools

I think this is a detente. both the P2 would "like" the addition of these states. But it isn't "mandatory". They aren't power football schools. And though the state of NC is growing, it's not Florida.

So I don't think that either P2 conference is likely to roll up that money truck for these.

In the negotiation, I think both sides will look at these schools and offer to let the other side take them in order to get X Y or Z.

Personally, I think the best move for the P2 may well be to leave them (except maybe VT) in the ACC, and go for other low hanging fruit.

The next best move would be to split them in some way. I think the SEC is less likely to want Duke - it's essentially another Vanderbilt, and they already have one of those. And they've shown they have no problem leaving rivals behind (OK State, for example). Plus NC State adds a wrinkle now.

I really could see the SEC adding VT, and seeing if - between the addition of VT and Clemson - that might be enough to get the NC market.

If one of the P2 does go after some combination of 3 or more VA/NC schools, and "if" 24 is the target number (which, I don't think it is), then who ever does, has fewer options for the rest of the map.

North Carolina is nice, but if the P2 are really carving up fbs, that sounds like shooting one's self in the foot.

If anything, looking at the whole board, I think it makes more sense for the P2, to take the best schools from the Big12 instead, and leave the ACC intact. That leaves options on the table.

Kansas

I think Kansas and Missouri had a very messy divorce and I don't think either side cares if they see the other again.

I think re-uniting them is a fan's dream.

That said, Kansas could go either way.

I think they lean towards the Big10 though. Their priorities seem to more align that way - Academics/AAU, basketball, etc. They aren't a Kentucky or a Vandy. They're their own thing.

That said, there's a possibility that the snobbish schools in the Big10 might well look down their noses at Kansas.

I don't think so though. There are more and new voting members of the conference. And I think the western schools in particular are likely to want to see Kansas added.

The 4Cs, and Stanford and Cal

I really don't know if they get added.

I think the Big10 likely wants into the State of Arizona, but I don't think there is an immediate "push" to get that done. I don't think the SEC is interested in that direction at all.

And I thin Utah only happens if the Big10 goes to 28 schools.

It sounds like Cal really burned the bridge to the Big10, and they just don't have the money/market/football fan draw, to compensate for that.

Stanford really depends on if ND and the ACC stay viable. If the P2 esentially kill the ACC or leave it a husk of what it was, I think Stanford either follows ND to independence, or possibly gets a Big10 invite down the road - possibly paired with Colorado.

So what does this look like?

Both the Big10 and the SEC are likely to get into Florida.

NC et all will come down to negotiations. Which may also depend on whether the P2 wants the ACC to stick around as an extra "buffer" conference of sorts.

Funny thing, I think if negotiations led to the Big10 adding Kansas and the SEC adding NC, both sides would call that a "win", and likely look at the other side as being foolish in choosing what they did.

So besides guessing at how the Florida situation plays out. I think the following could happen:

The P2 decide to leave "most" of the ACC and the Big12 intact. espn and Fox like this, because it allows for a "two-tier" pay structure, without destabilizing conferences.

So:

Big10 - 2 Florida schools. Kansas.

SEC - Another Florida school. Clemson. VT.

That's 3 schools each.

Then it's about GT, the VA/NC schools, and the 4Cs. With a few others possibly winning the lottery depending on how the cards fall.

It should be interesting to see how messy this all turns out.

It's a pleasant fiction. ESPN will decide any negotiations and will do it with FOX. Then the networks will pay for the moves. If FOX tries to take one by force all bets are off and should the SEC acquire FSU and Clemson hosting its own playoff is still on the table.

IOW, nothing is a done deal. ESPN and FOX both see a lot of money on the table and could decide to work together to get it, manage the process, and set the terms. If one overreaches with the other, it all heads in a different direction.

The SEC has done quite well in landing its objectives. Of the original 6 to get to 16 the SEC has landed 4 and the other 2 are still in play. South Carolina and Missouri were serendipities. North Carolina, Virginia, Duke, Florida State/Miami, and Clemson are in play. I like our odds on 5 of them. Kansas is possible too.

What matters here the most is the answer to this question? Which of these schools would ESPN most like to keep 100% access to for broadcasting? When ESPN answers that only then will the Big 10 know what their options are. Any schools to which ESPN offers FOX access becomes your potential additions.

The SEC and Big 10 aren't negotiating. Nor should they. Their business is to decide how the new upper tier will be governed and how compliance with the courts will transpire.

There's a lot that you say that is very logical, sensible, and honestly, very likely.

But...

bolded - Sorry, but that's where your arguement fails for me.

The Big10 does not have to wait to see what the SEC/espn will "let" them have.

I'm not saying that as a fan. I'm saying that this is just reality. The SEC is not in control of the situation. Neither is the Big10.

espn has a fair amount of influence, but even they aren't in control of the situation.

The schools will go where they want.

At the end of the day it will just be who can manage to exert enough influence (money) to try to cajole the schools to do X.

And there are no guarantees on that.

I don't know what the Big10 conference may decide to do, but waiting on the SEC about Florida schools? Yeah, no. Very unlikely.

(03-05-2024 08:50 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-05-2024 08:32 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-05-2024 08:11 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 05:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  We’re in a rare place where I think you could realistically put two men together in a room, the Big 10 and SEC commissioners, and hammer out a consensus agreement on what the top level of college sports looks like and who gets to be a part of it. Below is a summary of what I think each side’s goals and objectives are:

Big 10–
1. wants Notre Dame and wants the SEC to agree to a post season that puts extreme pressure on ND to join a conference to ensure access.

2. would like a toe hold in FL

3. has interest in the VA/NC region

SEC—
1. wants to control a majority of the state of FL

2. wants to prevent incursions/competition into the Southeast, including VA/NC


————
If both sides were willing to come to an agreement that 24 as their membership cap, I think there could be a consensus that makes everyone relatively happy.

Conceding ND to the Big 10 is a relatively easy move so long as the SEC gets something in return, like let’s say FSU.

I also don’t see VA/NC as being critical to the Big 10. Maybe they give that up for Miami and an agreement that keeps the SEC from expanding beyond Missouri in the Midwest (Kansas). If they are in step though, that FL presence isn’t as necessary.

If both sides are working collectively and with that a mean in the future they are taking their media rights to market as a package, it actually probably makes sense for the Big 10 to fill the holes in their collective national footprint—places like the Bay Area, AZ, and Colorado.

Maybe the end product is:

Big 10: +ND, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Ariz St, Colorado
SEC: +FSU, Clemson, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT, Miami, GT/L’ville

The joint Big/SEC collective is truly national—Boston and Hartford are about the only major markets who aren’t a part of the footprint and New England has never been a collegiate sports hotbed.

Its probably a bigger group than necessary but the extra 8 or so members can help absorb losses and provide inventory to the T2 and T3 rights.

I think you are missing one step here.

FOX bends Petitti's ear on what they feel they must have: Notre Dame to cover the value of other moves. A toe hold in Florida for recruiting connections. A toe hold in Texas for the same.

Big 10 agrees to suspend AAU requirements for T.C.U.. Big 10 agrees to pursue FSU for 35% of the Florida College Sports viewers. Big 10 then gets clearance for the next 3 additions of their choice.

ESPN bends Sankey's ear. They want to keep Duke, UNC and Virginia. They want to keep the majority of the Florida market so Miami or FSU. They want the final jewel of the Big 12, Kansas. So, the SEC's hands are tied on 5 moves in the Carolinas and Virginia. Miami or FSU so 6. Kansas so 7. The SEC has one choice, Clemson or Colorado, or Georgia Tech. The SEC takes Clemson.

Why in the hell would this be so? UVa and UNC simply refuse to cooperate unless the gang stays together. You could simply bypass them and let the SEC move to 20 with Clemson, FSU if they could get them, Kansas and Miami, but all that does is delay the ultimate settlement and ESPN isn't free to just let the ACC contract lapse unless they've secured what they want.

Clemson, Duke, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech take the SEC to 24. Except for FSU and Georgia Tech ESPN keeps the hold it wants over the region.

FOX gets FSU's 35% of the Florida market, Notre Dame does join the Big 10, T.C.U is #21, and the Big 10 picks up Georgia Tech, Stanford, and Arizona State to go to 24.

FOX is appeased, ESPN pays for what they want. The SEC stays essentially regional. And the Big 10 adds another academic stalwart and a pair of FOI (friends of the Irish).

I think you're both correct in several things. But I think there are a few presumptions that are a stretch.

First, about Notre Dame:

I know it's a fanboy dream for some fans to add Notre Dame to a conference. And so it's a topic all over punditry.

There's something about a school doing something "different", that seems to bother some people. (Sesame street's "one of these things is not like the other")

The thing is, Notre Dame being independent is actually good for college sports.

Plus, NBC is a media partner for the Big10 now. If anything, Fox is unlikely to be pushing to rock that boat. Besides, all we're talking about is who gets paid for x-number of football home games.

Notre Dame sports are already in a conference - it's called the ACC.

All things being equal, I think it would be more likely for Fox to pick up the ACC media deal, than to break tradition, and mess with institutional marketing, by having ND "appear" to join a conference in football. There's money being made there. I don't think that apple-cart is likely to get upturned.

Next, the state of Florida

A "negotiation", is just that. It isn't, "hey let's roll over and give the SEC whatever they want".

I think Fighting Muskie's very right by saying that the Big10 wants into Florida.

And the SEC saying "no" is very unlikely to stop that.

FSU and Miami are in demand and they know it. And FSU has not been shy about saying that this is about the money.

Personally, I think, due to institutional "fit", among other things, that FSU is likely headed to the SEC. But current events has thrown a monkey wrench into that.

That said, it's no different than exiting the ACC - it just means that to get FSU, the SEC likely pays more, and possibly makes some concessions. Fans will stand up and say that the SEC doesn't "need" FSU and so on, but I have no doubt that backroom deals will go on.

I think it'll come down to whomever rolls up the bigger money truck.

And while we're talking about Florida, there's also "travel partners". Fox has already shown in California what they are likely to want. I think the Big10 could add some combination of 2 Florida schools and/or GT, and actually not need any more from the ACC.

The VA/NC schools

I think this is a detente. both the P2 would "like" the addition of these states. But it isn't "mandatory". They aren't power football schools. And though the state of NC is growing, it's not Florida.

So I don't think that either P2 conference is likely to roll up that money truck for these.

In the negotiation, I think both sides will look at these schools and offer to let the other side take them in order to get X Y or Z.

Personally, I think the best move for the P2 may well be to leave them (except maybe VT) in the ACC, and go for other low hanging fruit.

The next best move would be to split them in some way. I think the SEC is less likely to want Duke - it's essentially another Vanderbilt, and they already have one of those. And they've shown they have no problem leaving rivals behind (OK State, for example). Plus NC State adds a wrinkle now.

I really could see the SEC adding VT, and seeing if - between the addition of VT and Clemson - that might be enough to get the NC market.

If one of the P2 does go after some combination of 3 or more VA/NC schools, and "if" 24 is the target number (which, I don't think it is), then who ever does, has fewer options for the rest of the map.

North Carolina is nice, but if the P2 are really carving up fbs, that sounds like shooting one's self in the foot.

If anything, looking at the whole board, I think it makes more sense for the P2, to take the best schools from the Big12 instead, and leave the ACC intact. That leaves options on the table.

Kansas

I think Kansas and Missouri had a very messy divorce and I don't think either side cares if they see the other again.

I think re-uniting them is a fan's dream.

That said, Kansas could go either way.

I think they lean towards the Big10 though. Their priorities seem to more align that way - Academics/AAU, basketball, etc. They aren't a Kentucky or a Vandy. They're their own thing.

That said, there's a possibility that the snobbish schools in the Big10 might well look down their noses at Kansas.

I don't think so though. There are more and new voting members of the conference. And I think the western schools in particular are likely to want to see Kansas added.

The 4Cs, and Stanford and Cal

I really don't know if they get added.

I think the Big10 likely wants into the State of Arizona, but I don't think there is an immediate "push" to get that done. I don't think the SEC is interested in that direction at all.

And I thin Utah only happens if the Big10 goes to 28 schools.

It sounds like Cal really burned the bridge to the Big10, and they just don't have the money/market/football fan draw, to compensate for that.

Stanford really depends on if ND and the ACC stay viable. If the P2 esentially kill the ACC or leave it a husk of what it was, I think Stanford either follows ND to independence, or possibly gets a Big10 invite down the road - possibly paired with Colorado.

So what does this look like?

Both the Big10 and the SEC are likely to get into Florida.

NC et all will come down to negotiations. Which may also depend on whether the P2 wants the ACC to stick around as an extra "buffer" conference of sorts.

Funny thing, I think if negotiations led to the Big10 adding Kansas and the SEC adding NC, both sides would call that a "win", and likely look at the other side as being foolish in choosing what they did.

So besides guessing at how the Florida situation plays out. I think the following could happen:

The P2 decide to leave "most" of the ACC and the Big12 intact. espn and Fox like this, because it allows for a "two-tier" pay structure, without destabilizing conferences.

So:

Big10 - 2 Florida schools. Kansas.

SEC - Another Florida school. Clemson. VT.

That's 3 schools each.

Then it's about GT, the VA/NC schools, and the 4Cs. With a few others possibly winning the lottery depending on how the cards fall.

It should be interesting to see how messy this all turns out.

It's a pleasant fiction. ESPN will decide any negotiations and will do it with FOX. Then the networks will pay for the moves. If FOX tries to take one by force all bets are off and should the SEC acquire FSU and Clemson hosting its own playoff is still on the table.

IOW, nothing is a done deal. ESPN and FOX both see a lot of money on the table and could decide to work together to get it, manage the process, and set the terms. If one overreaches with the other, it all heads in a different direction.

The SEC has done quite well in landing its objectives. Of the original 6 to get to 16 the SEC has landed 4 and the other 2 are still in play. South Carolina and Missouri were serendipities. North Carolina, Virginia, Duke, Florida State/Miami, and Clemson are in play. I like our odds on 5 of them. Kansas is possible too.

What matters here the most is the answer to this question? Which of these schools would ESPN most like to keep 100% access to for broadcasting? When ESPN answers that only then will the Big 10 know what their options are. Any schools to which ESPN offers FOX access becomes your potential additions.

The SEC and Big 10 aren't negotiating. Nor should they. Their business is to decide how the new upper tier will be governed and how compliance with the courts will transpire.

There's a lot that you say that is very logical, sensible, and honestly, very likely.

But...

bolded - Sorry, but that's where your arguement fails for me.

The Big10 does not have to wait to see what the SEC/espn will "let" them have.

I'm not saying that as a fan. I'm saying that this is just reality. The SEC is not in control of the situation. Neither is the Big10.

espn has a fair amount of influence, but even they aren't in control of the situation.

The schools will go where they want.

At the end of the day it will just be who can manage to exert enough influence (money) to try to cajole the schools to do X.

And there are no guarantees on that.

I don't know what the Big10 conference may decide to do, but waiting on the SEC about Florida schools? Yeah, no. Very unlikely.

Not until or unless ESPN waives its option to extend. FSU hasn't even won the case. And if in discovery it comes out that FOX has offered anything that would ease their movement their way, then FOX gets sued. And that is the reality. Schools may choose, but ESPN will have their thumb on the scale of "Costs of moves" until the GOR is near its end. And money both earned and spent rules these decisions.

It seems like to me that the SEC and B1G is trying to wrap up all the prime time spots by consolidating all the mega-brands. Clemson, Miami, UNC don't carry big ratings vs the likes of Wake, BC, SU, Pitt, NCSU, etc.. You might get decent ratings vs ND, but that's the only game where it stands a chance to bump the B1G and SEC from their prime time spot. Teams not in the P2 will need to get used to noon games on Fox, ACCN, CW and ESPN2. This will absolutely devalue the other conferences to the point of everyone else being a G conference.

(03-05-2024 08:59 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-05-2024 08:50 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-05-2024 08:32 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-05-2024 08:11 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 05:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I think you are missing one step here.

FOX bends Petitti's ear on what they feel they must have: Notre Dame to cover the value of other moves. A toe hold in Florida for recruiting connections. A toe hold in Texas for the same.

Big 10 agrees to suspend AAU requirements for T.C.U.. Big 10 agrees to pursue FSU for 35% of the Florida College Sports viewers. Big 10 then gets clearance for the next 3 additions of their choice.

ESPN bends Sankey's ear. They want to keep Duke, UNC and Virginia. They want to keep the majority of the Florida market so Miami or FSU. They want the final jewel of the Big 12, Kansas. So, the SEC's hands are tied on 5 moves in the Carolinas and Virginia. Miami or FSU so 6. Kansas so 7. The SEC has one choice, Clemson or Colorado, or Georgia Tech. The SEC takes Clemson.

Why in the hell would this be so? UVa and UNC simply refuse to cooperate unless the gang stays together. You could simply bypass them and let the SEC move to 20 with Clemson, FSU if they could get them, Kansas and Miami, but all that does is delay the ultimate settlement and ESPN isn't free to just let the ACC contract lapse unless they've secured what they want.

Clemson, Duke, Kansas, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech take the SEC to 24. Except for FSU and Georgia Tech ESPN keeps the hold it wants over the region.

FOX gets FSU's 35% of the Florida market, Notre Dame does join the Big 10, T.C.U is #21, and the Big 10 picks up Georgia Tech, Stanford, and Arizona State to go to 24.

FOX is appeased, ESPN pays for what they want. The SEC stays essentially regional. And the Big 10 adds another academic stalwart and a pair of FOI (friends of the Irish).

I think you're both correct in several things. But I think there are a few presumptions that are a stretch.

First, about Notre Dame:

I know it's a fanboy dream for some fans to add Notre Dame to a conference. And so it's a topic all over punditry.

There's something about a school doing something "different", that seems to bother some people. (Sesame street's "one of these things is not like the other")

The thing is, Notre Dame being independent is actually good for college sports.

Plus, NBC is a media partner for the Big10 now. If anything, Fox is unlikely to be pushing to rock that boat. Besides, all we're talking about is who gets paid for x-number of football home games.

Notre Dame sports are already in a conference - it's called the ACC.

All things being equal, I think it would be more likely for Fox to pick up the ACC media deal, than to break tradition, and mess with institutional marketing, by having ND "appear" to join a conference in football. There's money being made there. I don't think that apple-cart is likely to get upturned.

Next, the state of Florida

A "negotiation", is just that. It isn't, "hey let's roll over and give the SEC whatever they want".

I think Fighting Muskie's very right by saying that the Big10 wants into Florida.

And the SEC saying "no" is very unlikely to stop that.

FSU and Miami are in demand and they know it. And FSU has not been shy about saying that this is about the money.

Personally, I think, due to institutional "fit", among other things, that FSU is likely headed to the SEC. But current events has thrown a monkey wrench into that.

That said, it's no different than exiting the ACC - it just means that to get FSU, the SEC likely pays more, and possibly makes some concessions. Fans will stand up and say that the SEC doesn't "need" FSU and so on, but I have no doubt that backroom deals will go on.

I think it'll come down to whomever rolls up the bigger money truck.

And while we're talking about Florida, there's also "travel partners". Fox has already shown in California what they are likely to want. I think the Big10 could add some combination of 2 Florida schools and/or GT, and actually not need any more from the ACC.

The VA/NC schools

I think this is a detente. both the P2 would "like" the addition of these states. But it isn't "mandatory". They aren't power football schools. And though the state of NC is growing, it's not Florida.

So I don't think that either P2 conference is likely to roll up that money truck for these.

In the negotiation, I think both sides will look at these schools and offer to let the other side take them in order to get X Y or Z.

Personally, I think the best move for the P2 may well be to leave them (except maybe VT) in the ACC, and go for other low hanging fruit.

The next best move would be to split them in some way. I think the SEC is less likely to want Duke - it's essentially another Vanderbilt, and they already have one of those. And they've shown they have no problem leaving rivals behind (OK State, for example). Plus NC State adds a wrinkle now.

I really could see the SEC adding VT, and seeing if - between the addition of VT and Clemson - that might be enough to get the NC market.

If one of the P2 does go after some combination of 3 or more VA/NC schools, and "if" 24 is the target number (which, I don't think it is), then who ever does, has fewer options for the rest of the map.

North Carolina is nice, but if the P2 are really carving up fbs, that sounds like shooting one's self in the foot.

If anything, looking at the whole board, I think it makes more sense for the P2, to take the best schools from the Big12 instead, and leave the ACC intact. That leaves options on the table.

Kansas

I think Kansas and Missouri had a very messy divorce and I don't think either side cares if they see the other again.

I think re-uniting them is a fan's dream.

That said, Kansas could go either way.

I think they lean towards the Big10 though. Their priorities seem to more align that way - Academics/AAU, basketball, etc. They aren't a Kentucky or a Vandy. They're their own thing.

That said, there's a possibility that the snobbish schools in the Big10 might well look down their noses at Kansas.

I don't think so though. There are more and new voting members of the conference. And I think the western schools in particular are likely to want to see Kansas added.

The 4Cs, and Stanford and Cal

I really don't know if they get added.

I think the Big10 likely wants into the State of Arizona, but I don't think there is an immediate "push" to get that done. I don't think the SEC is interested in that direction at all.

And I thin Utah only happens if the Big10 goes to 28 schools.

It sounds like Cal really burned the bridge to the Big10, and they just don't have the money/market/football fan draw, to compensate for that.

Stanford really depends on if ND and the ACC stay viable. If the P2 esentially kill the ACC or leave it a husk of what it was, I think Stanford either follows ND to independence, or possibly gets a Big10 invite down the road - possibly paired with Colorado.

So what does this look like?

Both the Big10 and the SEC are likely to get into Florida.

NC et all will come down to negotiations. Which may also depend on whether the P2 wants the ACC to stick around as an extra "buffer" conference of sorts.

Funny thing, I think if negotiations led to the Big10 adding Kansas and the SEC adding NC, both sides would call that a "win", and likely look at the other side as being foolish in choosing what they did.

So besides guessing at how the Florida situation plays out. I think the following could happen:

The P2 decide to leave "most" of the ACC and the Big12 intact. espn and Fox like this, because it allows for a "two-tier" pay structure, without destabilizing conferences.

So:

Big10 - 2 Florida schools. Kansas.

SEC - Another Florida school. Clemson. VT.

That's 3 schools each.

Then it's about GT, the VA/NC schools, and the 4Cs. With a few others possibly winning the lottery depending on how the cards fall.

It should be interesting to see how messy this all turns out.

It's a pleasant fiction. ESPN will decide any negotiations and will do it with FOX. Then the networks will pay for the moves. If FOX tries to take one by force all bets are off and should the SEC acquire FSU and Clemson hosting its own playoff is still on the table.

IOW, nothing is a done deal. ESPN and FOX both see a lot of money on the table and could decide to work together to get it, manage the process, and set the terms. If one overreaches with the other, it all heads in a different direction.

The SEC has done quite well in landing its objectives. Of the original 6 to get to 16 the SEC has landed 4 and the other 2 are still in play. South Carolina and Missouri were serendipities. North Carolina, Virginia, Duke, Florida State/Miami, and Clemson are in play. I like our odds on 5 of them. Kansas is possible too.

What matters here the most is the answer to this question? Which of these schools would ESPN most like to keep 100% access to for broadcasting? When ESPN answers that only then will the Big 10 know what their options are. Any schools to which ESPN offers FOX access becomes your potential additions.

The SEC and Big 10 aren't negotiating. Nor should they. Their business is to decide how the new upper tier will be governed and how compliance with the courts will transpire.

There's a lot that you say that is very logical, sensible, and honestly, very likely.

But...

bolded - Sorry, but that's where your arguement fails for me.

The Big10 does not have to wait to see what the SEC/espn will "let" them have.

I'm not saying that as a fan. I'm saying that this is just reality. The SEC is not in control of the situation. Neither is the Big10.

espn has a fair amount of influence, but even they aren't in control of the situation.

The schools will go where they want.

At the end of the day it will just be who can manage to exert enough influence (money) to try to cajole the schools to do X.

And there are no guarantees on that.

I don't know what the Big10 conference may decide to do, but waiting on the SEC about Florida schools? Yeah, no. Very unlikely.

Not until or unless ESPN waives its option to extend. FSU hasn't even won the case. And if in discovery it comes out that FOX has offered anything that would ease their movement their way, then FOX gets sued. And that is the reality. Schools may choose, but ESPN will have their thumb on the scale of "Costs of moves" until the GOR is near its end. And money both earned and spent rules these decisions.

in other words: "influence".

no argument here.

(03-05-2024 09:01 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:  It seems like to me that the SEC and B1G is trying to wrap up all the prime time spots by consolidating all the mega-brands. Clemson, Miami, UNC don't carry big ratings vs the likes of Wake, BC, SU, Pitt, NCSU, etc.. You might get decent ratings vs ND, but that's the only game where it stands a chance to bump the B1G and SEC from their prime time spot. Teams not in the P2 will need to get used to noon games on Fox, ACCN, CW and ESPN2. This will absolutely devalue the other conferences to the point of everyone else being a G conference.

This is what I was talking about when I said that FSU and Clemson were worth more to ESPN in the SEC than the ACC. The SEC earns about 7 million a game more than the SEC when one of our brands plays another brand. In the ACC FSU and Clemson played each other and if they played Notre Dame you had a game that would max out ratings. They would increase the frequency of those kinds of games by 5 in the SEC. There's your 35 million not to mention how much more each would make vs the rest of the SEC schedule and in gate and travel.

It's what is meant when you see the term Contract multiplier.

But yes the Big 10 and SEC would max those kinds of schedules out with the additions they are looking at making.

Your assumption that the ACC and Big 12 would take the noon slots and lesser Saturday times is not exactly accurate. The number of better games in a larger Big 10 or SEC slate of games after expansion would take many of those slots as well.

People say you can't make much money with lesser slots. Yes you can if you can draw more eyeballs with better games. The SEC and Big 10 want to draw national audiences and sweep the Saturday time slots with better ratings making more money in each slot than they have made before.