If FSU leaves, then the ACC should immediately add USF. It's important to keep a presence in Florida, even with Miami is still a member for now.

If Clemson leaves, I am not sure if the ACC needs to add anybody right away. Potential candidates that could be added later include UConn, Tulane or SDSU.

(03-29-2024 05:27 PM)goofus Wrote:  If FSU leaves, then the ACC should immediately add USF. It's important to keep a presence in Florida, even with Miami is still a member for now.

If Clemson leaves, I am not sure if the ACC needs to add anybody right away. Potential candidates that could be added later include UConn, Tulane or SDSU.

You think there’s a chance Clemson leaves but FSU stays….

(03-29-2024 01:52 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 01:42 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  You have to include ND though. Since football no longer has divisions, and thus an odd number doesn't affect much, you're looking for an even number of teams in many of the other sports where odd numbers complicate scheduling.

The ACC has 14 schools, plus ND, for a total of 15. They are adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU, for a total of - 18.

So it IS an even number.

Even if we remove FSU and Clemson (2 schools), and add USF and UConn (2 schools) - all even numbers...

The ACC will not add USF unless Miami leaves as Miami gives them the Florida Market. UConn only is invited if FSU, CLEMSON, UNC & 4 school leaves not named Miami.... to keep the contract at 15.... the ACC would like to stay at 14-15-16 not 18 so that way everyones share gets bigger as FSU and Clemson leave

(03-30-2024 06:42 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 01:52 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 01:42 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  You have to include ND though. Since football no longer has divisions, and thus an odd number doesn't affect much, you're looking for an even number of teams in many of the other sports where odd numbers complicate scheduling.

The ACC has 14 schools, plus ND, for a total of 15. They are adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU, for a total of - 18.

So it IS an even number.

Even if we remove FSU and Clemson (2 schools), and add USF and UConn (2 schools) - all even numbers...

The ACC will not add USF unless Miami leaves as Miami gives them the Florida Market. UConn only is invited if FSU, CLEMSON, UNC & 4 school leaves not named Miami.... to keep the contract at 15.... the ACC would like to stay at 14-15-16 not 18 so that way everyones share gets bigger as FSU and Clemson leave

that is predicated on Espn renewing in a year or 2, and not losing money when the 2028 playoff look in happens. I really doubt you lose only 2, but if those 2 ended up in the Big there is a chance the SEC just stands pat. I think it is more likely that SEC adds NC/VA at that point.

(03-29-2024 05:27 PM)goofus Wrote:  If FSU leaves, then the ACC should immediately add USF. It's important to keep a presence in Florida, even with Miami is still a member for now.

If Clemson leaves, I am not sure if the ACC needs to add anybody right away. Potential candidates that could be added later include UConn, Tulane or SDSU.

I think SDSU is more likely to be Big12 backfill, if ACC adds a Big12 school.

But otherwise, I agree that the rest is possible.

(03-29-2024 03:54 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 01:14 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  I know there are questions about North Carolina.

But what if they decide to wait on moving?

What do things look like in 2027/8?

At that point, the new CFP model is underway.

And the MWC's media deal is over in 2026.

The CW (Raycom) deal with the ACC ends in 2027

And noting that the Big12 deal that starts in 2025 has pro-rata as part of it

https://businessofcollegesports.com/curr...racts/#sec

-----

What I think is likely - if only FSU and Clemson move - then in my opinion, all that "needs" to be resolved is backfill, and whatever is going on with the PAC2.

So I think it's something like this:

FSU and Clemson to the SEC, for 18.

Oregon state and San Diego State to the Big12, for 18.

USF and Uconn to the ACC, for 18.

Big10 stands pat (waiting for the next go-round).

The PAC (Washington State) and the MWC merge in some way. (WSU essentially replacing SDSU.)

The BigEast and the AAC backfill in someway (maybe).

And we're done.

And everyone watches to see if/when NC+1 goes to the SEC, and if/when Miami+1 goes to the Big10.

-----

What you think will happen?

Who’s going to pay for the big 12 and ACC additions? Big 12 has already filled their pro rata until 2031, and Yormark isn’t going to deliberately piss off ESPN, especicially with zero upside. The ACC already pre-backfilled. They have one spot left at a weak pro rata in the $20-25m range, but do they really want to add 2 extreme outliers forever for an extra $1m per school for a decade or less? Actually, it would be a pay cut due to diluted bowl shares and NCAAT units. I doubt it.

If just FSU and Clemson move, which I’m not saying is likely but it’s possible, if that happens then nobody else in the P4 does anything, and we wait for 2030, 2031 2034, and 2036 to see what the new media rights agreements look like.

bolded - I haven't seen that anywhere.

And I linked in the OP that it's been stated that the contract that starts in 2025 has prorata...

(03-29-2024 03:04 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 03:00 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 02:44 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 01:49 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I wouldn't be surprised if UConn was continued to be ignored by the ACC, even more so with SMU, Stanford and California coming aboard. With only Miami remaining (for now) the need for continued presence in Florida is crucial. USF provides that. No one is replacing the football value of FSU/Clemson, but the league actually isn't losing much on the basketball side either.

Remember, with any exit fees, the more programs the ACC adds, the more it dilutes the payouts. I could see only one team added. Tulane would also be of worthy consideration, given their academics, market and investment into athletics in the past decade.

If the UConn men and/or women win the national championship in basketball, then the ACC will have to start paying attention to them. Also, UConn needs a place to put their football team now that Army has left and UMass is on its way out the door.

But, should the ACC pass them up again, the South Florida and Tulane are the way to go. South Florida gives the ACC a second Florida team again, and Tulane would be smart academic move, aside from a decent football move. Their win over USC in the Cotton Bowl will help them out tremendously.

The AAC backfills with FIU and possibly Louisiana Tech while the C-USA backfills with two more FCS teams.

I mean, UConn has won five men's NCAAT Championships since 1999. I don't think winning a sixth is going to suddenly change the thinking.

If anyone is to blame for UConn not being in the ACC, it's Blumenthal.

I'm only relying on memory for this, but when the BigEast mess was happening, didn't UConn have some legal or NCAA issues going on, that made them toxic for consideration at that time?

(03-30-2024 07:38 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 03:04 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 03:00 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 02:44 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 01:49 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I wouldn't be surprised if UConn was continued to be ignored by the ACC, even more so with SMU, Stanford and California coming aboard. With only Miami remaining (for now) the need for continued presence in Florida is crucial. USF provides that. No one is replacing the football value of FSU/Clemson, but the league actually isn't losing much on the basketball side either.

Remember, with any exit fees, the more programs the ACC adds, the more it dilutes the payouts. I could see only one team added. Tulane would also be of worthy consideration, given their academics, market and investment into athletics in the past decade.

If the UConn men and/or women win the national championship in basketball, then the ACC will have to start paying attention to them. Also, UConn needs a place to put their football team now that Army has left and UMass is on its way out the door.

But, should the ACC pass them up again, the South Florida and Tulane are the way to go. South Florida gives the ACC a second Florida team again, and Tulane would be smart academic move, aside from a decent football move. Their win over USC in the Cotton Bowl will help them out tremendously.

The AAC backfills with FIU and possibly Louisiana Tech while the C-USA backfills with two more FCS teams.

I mean, UConn has won five men's NCAAT Championships since 1999. I don't think winning a sixth is going to suddenly change the thinking.

If anyone is to blame for UConn not being in the ACC, it's Blumenthal.

I'm only relying on memory for this, but when the BigEast mess was happening, didn't UConn have some legal or NCAA issues going on, that made them toxic for consideration at that time?

They sued the conference!

(03-29-2024 01:35 PM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  The ACC probably just stands pat.

Not sure why the Big 12 would add Oregon State and San Diego State. That’s seem like they’d be expanding just for the sake of expanding.

Yeah... the only way B12 expanding to expand makes sense is if it's to undermine the ACC, which I would presume would mean USF/SDSU. But that just seems a sketchy plan until (a) P2 have taken what they want from ACC and, (b) remaining ACC teams show little interest in B12. The ACC has far more margin for error than the PAC, but the B12 did leverage 'interest in SDSU' against Utah and ASU when seeking the 4C.

(03-30-2024 08:36 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-30-2024 07:38 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 03:04 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 03:00 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 02:44 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  If the UConn men and/or women win the national championship in basketball, then the ACC will have to start paying attention to them. Also, UConn needs a place to put their football team now that Army has left and UMass is on its way out the door.

But, should the ACC pass them up again, the South Florida and Tulane are the way to go. South Florida gives the ACC a second Florida team again, and Tulane would be smart academic move, aside from a decent football move. Their win over USC in the Cotton Bowl will help them out tremendously.

The AAC backfills with FIU and possibly Louisiana Tech while the C-USA backfills with two more FCS teams.

I mean, UConn has won five men's NCAAT Championships since 1999. I don't think winning a sixth is going to suddenly change the thinking.

If anyone is to blame for UConn not being in the ACC, it's Blumenthal.

I'm only relying on memory for this, but when the BigEast mess was happening, didn't UConn have some legal or NCAA issues going on, that made them toxic for consideration at that time?

They sued the conference!

And Blumenthal helped them out in some capacity.

(03-30-2024 08:44 AM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(03-30-2024 08:36 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-30-2024 07:38 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 03:04 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 03:00 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I mean, UConn has won five men's NCAAT Championships since 1999. I don't think winning a sixth is going to suddenly change the thinking.

If anyone is to blame for UConn not being in the ACC, it's Blumenthal.

I'm only relying on memory for this, but when the BigEast mess was happening, didn't UConn have some legal or NCAA issues going on, that made them toxic for consideration at that time?

They sued the conference!

And Blumenthal helped them out in some capacity.

They sued because they made the commitment and investment to upgrade their program expecting the likes of Miami and BC would be around. I think the argument was they were misled and that these programs knew they were leaving but didn't reveal it and were working behind the scenes while ensuring the rest of the BE they were all in.

B.Y. has made it known he wants the B12 to consider BB in any expansion. The ACC adding UConn and SDSU while not ideal for FB, would certainly increase their BB standing (more than it already is) and keep the B12 out of the Northeast and west coast. I don't think there are any programs that can be replace FSU and Clemson FB equally in terms of $. There are probably some that would bring more value in FB than UConn and SDSU but is the difference significant? The B12 and ACC are in race/fight to be # 3. IMO adding a 3rd school in California and blocking the B12 from getting a foot in the northeast would be a solid strategic move.

It’s a distinct possibility. Clemson, rather than Miami, being the second school to file a lawsuit speaks volumes. It means that any sort of flirtation Florida St had behind the scenes read just a distraction to gain leverage. Their real plan is the SEC with Clemson. If the plan was to leave Disney and join the FOX/CBS/NBC family the networks would have wanted a double Florida presence and Miami would be #20.

Then there’s UNC, historic overlord of the ACC. They are definitely working through some things right now.i don’t think it set well with them the way Notre Dame coaxed the rest of the league, including Duke, WF, and NC St (et tu, Wolfpack?), into expansion against their wishes. Their whole reputation is built on being the Kings of Tobacco Road and now the orb and scepter have been knocked from their hands by a Celtic Shillelagh. It may no longer be a matter of ruling in hell or serving in heaven if they can’t force their will in the ACC anymore.

If UNC stays, expect the 4th and final pro rata to go to USF to maintain the double presence in Florida. They’ll have 16 for football plus ND and that should be a comfortable set up. Expansion settles until the P2 tv contracts come up for renegotiation again.

(03-30-2024 10:20 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It’s a distinct possibility. Clemson, rather than Miami, being the second school to file a lawsuit speaks volumes. It means that any sort of flirtation Florida St had behind the scenes read just a distraction to gain leverage. Their real plan is the SEC with Clemson. If the plan was to leave Disney and join the FOX/CBS/NBC family the networks would have wanted a double Florida presence and Miami would be #20.

Then there’s UNC, historic overlord of the ACC. They are definitely working through some things right now.i don’t think it set well with them the way Notre Dame coaxed the rest of the league, including Duke, WF, and NC St (et tu, Wolfpack?), into expansion against their wishes. Their whole reputation is built on being the Kings of Tobacco Road and now the orb and scepter have been knocked from their hands by a Celtic Shillelagh. It may no longer be a matter of ruling in hell or serving in heaven if they can’t force their will in the ACC anymore.

If UNC stays, expect the 4th and final pro rata to go to USF to maintain the double presence in Florida. They’ll have 16 for football plus ND and that should be a comfortable set up. Expansion settles until the P2 tv contracts come up for renegotiation again.

The only overlord is ESPN, which has been influencing ACC expansion for 20 years.

(03-29-2024 01:14 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  I know there are questions about North Carolina.

But what if they decide to wait on moving?

What do things look like in 2027/8?

At that point, the new CFP model is underway.

And the MWC's media deal is over in 2026.

The CW (Raycom) deal with the ACC ends in 2027

And noting that the Big12 deal that starts in 2025 has pro-rata as part of it

https://businessofcollegesports.com/curr...racts/#sec

-----

What I think is likely - if only FSU and Clemson move - then in my opinion, all that "needs" to be resolved is backfill, and whatever is going on with the PAC2.

So I think it's something like this:

FSU and Clemson to the SEC, for 18.

Oregon state and San Diego State to the Big12, for 18.

USF and Uconn to the ACC, for 18.

Big10 stands pat (waiting for the next go-round).

The PAC (Washington State) and the MWC merge in some way. (WSU essentially replacing SDSU.)

The BigEast and the AAC backfill in someway (maybe).

And we're done.

And everyone watches to see if/when NC+1 goes to the SEC, and if/when Miami+1 goes to the Big10.

-----

What you think will happen?

I think there will never be an end to realignment, only temporary pauses. Programs will rise and fall in prominence and marketing appeal, school administrations and the emphasis they put on athletics will change, media empires will come and go, consumer/spectator interests will vary over time, unionization may complicate matters, demographics and the state of the economy will fluctuate, Congress may or may not intervene, NIL or some equivalent may wreak havoc, and new dreamers and schemers will arise to occupy positions of power as conference administrators, and so on. There is nothing as constant as change.

How many potential moves are there in a game of chess?

The key is the ACC needs to make invites to USF and UConn while the ACC is still worth joining.

If the ACC waits until UNC, NCSU, Miami, VT, etc. are gone, then at that point USF and UConn should just hold out for the Big 12 or stay where they are.

(03-30-2024 07:34 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 03:54 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 01:14 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  I know there are questions about North Carolina.

But what if they decide to wait on moving?

What do things look like in 2027/8?

At that point, the new CFP model is underway.

And the MWC's media deal is over in 2026.

The CW (Raycom) deal with the ACC ends in 2027

And noting that the Big12 deal that starts in 2025 has pro-rata as part of it

https://businessofcollegesports.com/curr...racts/#sec

-----

What I think is likely - if only FSU and Clemson move - then in my opinion, all that "needs" to be resolved is backfill, and whatever is going on with the PAC2.

So I think it's something like this:

FSU and Clemson to the SEC, for 18.

Oregon state and San Diego State to the Big12, for 18.

USF and Uconn to the ACC, for 18.

Big10 stands pat (waiting for the next go-round).

The PAC (Washington State) and the MWC merge in some way. (WSU essentially replacing SDSU.)

The BigEast and the AAC backfill in someway (maybe).

And we're done.

And everyone watches to see if/when NC+1 goes to the SEC, and if/when Miami+1 goes to the Big10.

-----

What you think will happen?

Who’s going to pay for the big 12 and ACC additions? Big 12 has already filled their pro rata until 2031, and Yormark isn’t going to deliberately piss off ESPN, especicially with zero upside. The ACC already pre-backfilled. They have one spot left at a weak pro rata in the $20-25m range, but do they really want to add 2 extreme outliers forever for an extra $1m per school for a decade or less? Actually, it would be a pay cut due to diluted bowl shares and NCAAT units. I doubt it.

If just FSU and Clemson move, which I’m not saying is likely but it’s possible, if that happens then nobody else in the P4 does anything, and we wait for 2030, 2031 2034, and 2036 to see what the new media rights agreements look like.

bolded - I haven't seen that anywhere.

And I linked in the OP that it's been stated that the contract that starts in 2025 has prorata...

I believe you are correct and the implications are huge. It means at least ESPN and FOX are ok with the Big12 expanding again, and quite possibly they are in favor of it. as it means they envision more anticipated revenue possibilities.

Clemson isn't leaving the ACC nor is UNC.

(03-30-2024 10:47 AM)colohank Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 01:14 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  I know there are questions about North Carolina.

But what if they decide to wait on moving?

What do things look like in 2027/8?

At that point, the new CFP model is underway.

And the MWC's media deal is over in 2026.

The CW (Raycom) deal with the ACC ends in 2027

And noting that the Big12 deal that starts in 2025 has pro-rata as part of it

https://businessofcollegesports.com/curr...racts/#sec

-----

What I think is likely - if only FSU and Clemson move - then in my opinion, all that "needs" to be resolved is backfill, and whatever is going on with the PAC2.

So I think it's something like this:

FSU and Clemson to the SEC, for 18.

Oregon state and San Diego State to the Big12, for 18.

USF and Uconn to the ACC, for 18.

Big10 stands pat (waiting for the next go-round).

The PAC (Washington State) and the MWC merge in some way. (WSU essentially replacing SDSU.)

The BigEast and the AAC backfill in someway (maybe).

And we're done.

And everyone watches to see if/when NC+1 goes to the SEC, and if/when Miami+1 goes to the Big10.

-----

What you think will happen?

I think there will never be an end to realignment, only temporary pauses. Programs will rise and fall in prominence and marketing appeal, school administrations and the emphasis they put on athletics will change, media empires will come and go, consumer/spectator interests will vary over time, unionization may complicate matters, demographics and the state of the economy will fluctuate, Congress may or may not intervene, NIL or some equivalent may wreak havoc, and new dreamers and schemers will arise to occupy positions of power as conference administrators, and so on. There is nothing as constant as change.

How many potential moves are there in a game of chess?

The major realignments were reactions to changes in the media model.

With the OU/UGA suit ending the NCAA monopoly in the 80s, that lead to the formation of the Big East, FSU, South Carolina and Penn St. giving up independence and the expansions for the SEC, ACC and Big 10. And ultimately, the collapse of the SWC and creation of the Big 12. CUSA and WAC 16 were formed in the aftermath.
That was relatively stable for 15 years.

With the conference cable network model, that lead to the 2010-2014 realignments. The Big 10, SEC, ACC and Pac 12 all expanded. The Big East as a football conference collapsaed (the American was basically CUSA 1.0). That lead to lots of realignment in the G5 as well. The WAC collapsed.

With the decline in the cable model, increase of streaming and the increase in value of the high viewership properties-quality rather than quantity became important to the networks, the Big 10, SEC, ACC and Big 12 expanded and the Pac 12 collapsed.
We are still in that cycle of realignment. It hasn't stabilized despite already having 34 schools move since 2022, the first moves since 2018. There were only 3 since 2015 (Idaho, NMSU and Coastal Carolina related to the Sun Belt). There were 49 moves from 2011 to 2015, with some schools making multiple moves.

(03-29-2024 05:30 PM)Sellular1 Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 05:27 PM)goofus Wrote:  If FSU leaves, then the ACC should immediately add USF. It's important to keep a presence in Florida, even with Miami is still a member for now.

If Clemson leaves, I am not sure if the ACC needs to add anybody right away. Potential candidates that could be added later include UConn, Tulane or SDSU.

You think there’s a chance Clemson leaves but FSU stays….

Actually there is. If FSU gets the case heard in Florida, then Clemson's case will almost certainly be heard in South Carolina. It's entirely possible that one gets a more favorable judge/ruling than the other, impacting their negotiating position and perhaps even their ultimately timing of escape.