(02-19-2015 04:15 PM)Wedge Wrote: (02-19-2015 04:10 PM)Wolfman Wrote: While I don't believe GORs are as iron clad as others do, I believe it is strong enough to keep a single school from leaving. With that in mind, I think it would take a group exodus to start the next round before the GORs expire.
If any P5 program wants to move, there will be rumblings a few years before a GOR expires. A conference will ask its members to extend the GOR as they start to negotiate their next TV contract or TV extension, and if a school stalls instead of eagerly signing the GOR extension, then we'll know something is up.
Agreed.
But the original post offers an interesting "What If".
So, in that context and keeping in mind what you write above, it would most likely involve a P5 team that has a lot of value and the right conference willing to take them on. Maryland didn't balk at the ACC GOR because they hoped the B1G would invite them at some point in the future. They knew it was a done deal at that point in time, at least from the aspect of being assured a B1G invite.
So, the P5 teams of value that might at least consider a move when the current GORs start expiring are, of course, the usual suspects (in alpha order) - Clemson, FSU, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia.
My guess, and it's only a guess, is that the top 2 P5 teams willing to move are probably Oklahoma (to any of PAC, B16, or SEC) as along as Oklahoma State can tag along (probably narrows it to the PAC as a result) and FSU but only to the SEC.
If either or both of those happen, then the other P5 teams of value from the ACC and/or the Big 12 will be more open to a possible move elsewhere.
Cheers,
Neil