slhNavy91
Heisman
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RE: USF not Ranked-CFP
(11-15-2017 07:53 AM)fanhood Wrote: (11-15-2017 06:57 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote: (11-14-2017 11:21 PM)fanhood Wrote: (11-14-2017 11:14 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote: (11-14-2017 11:06 PM)fanhood Wrote: I agree that there is P5 vs G5 bias. I have been saying that the entire time, regarding schedules, rankings, bowl games, and yes....TV contracts. However, this is some tin foil hat stuff.
The committee does not value G5 vs G5 wins that much. So when USF beats Temple, or beats Tulane, they don't get credit for it. Conversely, when they lose to Houston, they get punished more than when say Michigan State does by losing to a Northwestern team that lost to Duke. It is what it is. Don't get mad at me for it.
Last year, the committee called Navy's wins over Houston, Memphis, and Tulsa "quality wins" in explaining why 2-loss Navy might overtake undefeated WMU. Here's the transcript yet again:
http://www.asapsports.com/show_conference.php?id=125775
You realize I said in previous posts that wins over Memphis and UCF would be seen as good right? Just read back a page. We don't disagree. Notice the qualifier "that much" and the examples I gave here. USF is a ****** schedule. They have not beaten anyone. It is not my fault. Furthermore, I simply find your over the top assertions, and absolutism to be laughable. Seeing a two loss Boise in front of USF should humble you a bit. Apparently it does not. Oh well.
I do realize that, but I'm getting a lot of cognitive dissonance from you claiming to acknowledge the quality of potential wins over UCF and Memphis but then not accepting the analysis (as opposed to absolutist assertion) that those wins leapfrog USF over a 2-loss Boise.
But perhaps you're right and I'm repetitive.
Let's flip the script: what is the case for 11-2 Boise over 11-1 USF? Checking the assumptions, wins over UCF and Memphis; UCF with a loss stays well ahead of #35 SDSU and Memphis' drop after a loss keeps them essentially even with #35. Boise gets zero bump from last two games or a repeat win over Fresno/SDSU in ccg
So what's the case for Boise?
Overall record? Nope, 11-2 < 11-1
Quality wins? Nope, advantage USF
Strength of schedule ? Nope, that will be a wash.
Related, strength of f losses? No, even if you write-off loss to WSU, loss to Virginia worse than loss to Houston.
Make the case for the Broncos
I don't know, I didn't put them there.
Maybe it is the win over an 8-2 SDSU (#35 Massey) team that has a win over Stanford. Maybe it is a win over Troy (#52 Massey), who is 8-2 with a road win over LSU. Maybe it is a win over Wyoming (#57 Massey), who is 6-3. Maybe the road win over Colorado State (#75 Massey), on the road. Maybe it is all of those wins, combined with watching the games.
Meanwhile, the only team that USF has beaten that does not have a losing record is Temple (#78 Massey) at 5-5, which is not as good of win as the four listed above.
Frankly, I have no idea. I did not rank them there. But when you compare USF and Boise, as I just did above, it is actually not even close.
Nobody is ranking USF or Boise or anyone else based on what they will do in two weeks. They are ranking them today. If Memphis, and UCF lose this week (I don't think they will), the whole argument falls apart. that is why we judge the present, not the future.
I am not sure why you get frustrated with me, when I am not the one that put Boise in front of USF.
I'm not talking about this week's CFP ranking. I haven't been.
I'm honestly not fussed by it, because the committee is very firm that rankings are a current snapshot based on body of work to date, and claims that every week is a clean slate. My team is well out of it so I don't have any emotional investment in these mid-process rankings.
Looking back through the thread, I am indirectly attacking one assertion of yours (post #16): "This ranking actually counters much of the narrative that has been spun here for a while." This ranking actually doesn't address at all what I for one have been saying.
Throughout this discussion, I have been talking about the hypothetical YOU set up that AAC fans should be worried about USF as champ losing the NY6 bid to Boise. That's why the bolded portions, that's why I said (not in the direct quotes above): "USF as a one loss AAC champ is less strong than undefeated UCF or one loss Memphis, but is easily ahead of ANY of the G4 teams contending for their conference championships."
I've made that case, and made it by looking at the factors by which the committee would compare the two, not as an absolutist assertion.
Defend the case you've made -- that 11-2 Boise should get in over an 11-1 USF which improves its position with wins over UCF and Memphis. Or tell me that wasn't what you meant when you said "USF winning the AAC is a worst case scenario for the AAC...[winning over UCF and Memphis] does not guarantee they jump an 11-2 Boise."
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