Double to triple of what AAC is getting now (2M per school in TV revenue). Hopefully that is a lowball figure for now.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/aac-tv-d...01284.html

NEWPORT, R.I. – The trappings of American inequity dot the landscape here, as even
the 1-percenters can’t help but gawk at the looming mansions on the Cliff Walk owned by iconic American families. Amid this gilded setting, the American Athletic Conference has held its Media Days since the league’s inception five years ago. And it has spent that time balancing Rockefeller ambitions on a Bundy family budget, desperately seeking a way to launch itself out of college football’s middle class.

On the field, the American Athletic Conference has acquitted itself well since the football iteration of the Big East collapsed. The AAC has made clear its aspirational desires, launching a persistent “P6” campaign to include itself in the top echelon of Power Five conferences in college sports.

The AAC has shown in a small sample size that it can be intermittently competitive with the top leagues in college football. That includes two marquee bowl wins the past three seasons, with Houston toppling Florida State in the Peach Bowl after 2015 and undefeated UCF thumping Auburn in the same game last season.

But to change the narrative on the field, the next step for the Artist Formerly Known As The Big East is to change the financial model off it. For all of AAC commissioner Mike Aresco’s stumping for the sport’s model to change to a Power Six, there’s no chance of that transcending empty rhetoric until the league’s financial revenues look more Rockefeller than Bundy.

----
For now, however, Aresco is toeing the party line and saying the league’s preference is to stay with ESPN. The league’s exclusive 30-day negotiating window with the network begins on Feb. 1. “First things first,” he said. “We want to get something done with ESPN if possible. We view them as the best alternative. They have offered us great exposure and helped us build our brand. That would be our preference.”

There’s a sexier potential option than everyone around college sports is curious about. Aresco, his staff and consultants have done their digital due diligence on all potential partners. Aresco’s background also comes in traditional television, as he was a longtime CBS executive before being picked to restart and revive the league five years ago. “ESPN is still in 85 million homes,” he said. “It’s still a significant number of homes. The ratings have been generally stable. I don’t think anyone knows precisely where it’s going.”

What’s the most likely outcome? It’s difficult to predict, but industry sources see the confluence of a primary deal with ESPN and some subsidiary deals with other channels or digital networks. (That’s been the model of the Big 12, Pac-12, and others). Maybe ESPN buys it all and sells some off? Maybe Facebook dabbles on a second-tier package like it did for Major League Baseball? As for the financial numbers, there’s fluctuating predictions on exactly what multiples the AAC will receive.

At least double? Sure. Likely triple? It’s needed. Those projections are tricky, especially in a rapidly changing environment, as the size of the deal will come down to market forces – or lack of – more than anything within Aresco and the league’s control.

I think each AAC school will get $4-5 million. That’s a reasonable and more realistic figure. Not P5 money but much better than your biggest competitor, the MWC. How much are Navy and Wichita State getting? Isn’t Navy on a separate tv deal?

(07-24-2018 11:36 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  I think each AAC school will get $4-5 million. That’s a reasonable and more realistic figure. Not P5 money but much better than your biggest competitor, the MWC. How much are Navy and Wichita State getting? Isn’t Navy on a separate tv deal?

Boise State's setup is that they get like a little over $5 million which is more than the rest of the MWC.

Army, Navy and Air Force also shown on the Armed Forces Network which is worldwide. It was one of the reasons why the Big 12 went after Air Force. Navy to the ACC would get Notre Dame noticed by Catholics worldwide as well. Plus Army and Air Force. We do get college football players from Europe and Australia. Even got some from the Middle East, South America and Africa. American football is catching on worldwide right now.

I’ve been saying 6-8 million a team for some time.

(07-25-2018 01:01 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-24-2018 11:36 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  I think each AAC school will get $4-5 million. That’s a reasonable and more realistic figure. Not P5 money but much better than your biggest competitor, the MWC. How much are Navy and Wichita State getting? Isn’t Navy on a separate tv deal?

Boise State's setup is that they get like a little over $5 million which is more than the rest of the MWC.

Army, Navy and Air Force also shown on the Armed Forces Network which is worldwide. It was one of the reasons why the Big 12 went after Air Force. Navy to the ACC would get Notre Dame noticed by Catholics worldwide as well. Plus Army and Air Force. We do get college football players from Europe and Australia. Even got some from the Middle East, South America and Africa. American football is catching on worldwide right now.

Article from Idaho Statesman last year, saying Boise got $2.9 million and other schools $1.1 million
https://www.idahostatesman.com/sports/co...35634.html

As far as AFN, it's actually nowhere near a guarantee of getting to watch a service academy game. You can count on bowls, the three Commander in Chief trophy games, and Navy ND. You'll probably get other academy matchup vs big name schools (e.g. Army -Oklahoma), but the average AAC or mwc game almost certainly not.

(07-25-2018 05:17 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(07-25-2018 01:01 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-24-2018 11:36 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  I think each AAC school will get $4-5 million. That’s a reasonable and more realistic figure. Not P5 money but much better than your biggest competitor, the MWC. How much are Navy and Wichita State getting? Isn’t Navy on a separate tv deal?

Boise State's setup is that they get like a little over $5 million which is more than the rest of the MWC.

Army, Navy and Air Force also shown on the Armed Forces Network which is worldwide. It was one of the reasons why the Big 12 went after Air Force. Navy to the ACC would get Notre Dame noticed by Catholics worldwide as well. Plus Army and Air Force. We do get college football players from Europe and Australia. Even got some from the Middle East, South America and Africa. American football is catching on worldwide right now.

Article from Idaho Statesman last year, saying Boise got $2.9 million and other schools $1.1 million
https://www.idahostatesman.com/sports/co...35634.html

As far as AFN, it's actually nowhere near a guarantee of getting to watch a service academy game. You can count on bowls, the three Commander in Chief trophy games, and Navy ND. You'll probably get other academy matchup vs big name schools (e.g. Army -Oklahoma), but the average AAC or mwc game almost certainly not.

That figure seems to be for only the conference tv rights money. Does not include Boise's special deal with ESPN.

(07-25-2018 07:07 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-25-2018 05:17 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(07-25-2018 01:01 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-24-2018 11:36 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  I think each AAC school will get $4-5 million. That’s a reasonable and more realistic figure. Not P5 money but much better than your biggest competitor, the MWC. How much are Navy and Wichita State getting? Isn’t Navy on a separate tv deal?

Boise State's setup is that they get like a little over $5 million which is more than the rest of the MWC.

Army, Navy and Air Force also shown on the Armed Forces Network which is worldwide. It was one of the reasons why the Big 12 went after Air Force. Navy to the ACC would get Notre Dame noticed by Catholics worldwide as well. Plus Army and Air Force. We do get college football players from Europe and Australia. Even got some from the Middle East, South America and Africa. American football is catching on worldwide right now.

Article from Idaho Statesman last year, saying Boise got $2.9 million and other schools $1.1 million
https://www.idahostatesman.com/sports/co...35634.html

As far as AFN, it's actually nowhere near a guarantee of getting to watch a service academy game. You can count on bowls, the three Commander in Chief trophy games, and Navy ND. You'll probably get other academy matchup vs big name schools (e.g. Army -Oklahoma), but the average AAC or mwc game almost certainly not.

That figure seems to be for only the conference tv rights money. Does not include Boise's special deal with ESPN.

You're wrong. Read the Idaho Statesman article.
The conference revenue distribution inequality comes about from how the conference handled the money from ESPN-Boise-mwc money coming in on top of the CBSSN primary deal.

I think the author is on the low side with the projection, I'm sticking with $7m or thereabouts per school, more than triple our current deal.

Aresco though thinks it will be in the P5 range, which would be more than double MY projection, and he is the TV industry expert.

We'll see what happens.

Aresco is right, and that’s about 15m per team, then after bowls and cfp money, AAC teams could be pushing closer to 20m a year
Put that in your pipe and smoke it...

(07-25-2018 08:41 AM)JHS55 Wrote:  Aresco is right, and that’s about 15m per team, then after bowls and cfp money, AAC teams could be pushing closer to 20m a year
Put that in your pipe and smoke it...

It sure would be awesome for USF to start collecting that kind of money.

I'm highly skeptical, but Aresco is the expert, not me.

Nick Saban slams the G5 saying they are not good enough to be in the playoffs. Do you think Saban have a clout to get the AAC get lesser money on their next tv deal? He wants to move all P5 schools just to play each other in the future. No more scheduling G5 and FCS. Some of the better games are when a G5 or a FCS team beat a P5 school. I wish someone like him should be quiet on this issue. At least Lou Holtz and Joe Pa give more respect to the little guys. I do think some schools in the AAC, MWC, MAC and schools like UTSA, UTEP, RICE, Southern Miss., Arkansas State, North Dakota State, Montana, James Madison and so forth get paid just as much as a PAC 12 schools. Several of those schools do deserved it with the ratings.

(07-25-2018 09:02 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Nick Saban slams the G5 saying they are not good enough to be in the playoffs. Do you think Saban have a clout to get the AAC get lesser money on their next tv deal?

In an indirect way, yes. If Saban's idea takes hold - and I admit it has gotten more traction than I thought it would - that could hurt all upcoming G5 media negotiations, because it could cause TV networks to believe that the number of games where P5 visit G5 - and therefore the G5 conference owns the media rights to the game - will diminish, or that already scheduled games will be canceled.

Because let's face it - even though P5 visiting G5 is rare, the value of a G5 media deal can be impacted by the ability to air games vs visiting P5 opponents. That's why Aresco is touting the Navy vs Notre Dame series (a series that won't be impacted by Saban's idea, btw).

(07-25-2018 09:06 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-25-2018 09:02 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Nick Saban slams the G5 saying they are not good enough to be in the playoffs. Do you think Saban have a clout to get the AAC get lesser money on their next tv deal?

In an indirect way, yes. If Saban's idea takes hold - and I admit it has gotten more traction than I thought it would - that could hurt all upcoming G5 media negotiations, because it could cause TV networks to believe that the number of games where P5 visit G5 - and therefore the G5 conference owns the media rights to the game - will diminish, or that already scheduled games will be canceled.

Because let's face it - even though P5 visiting G5 is rare, the value of a G5 media deal can be impacted by the ability to air games vs visiting P5 opponents. That's why Aresco is touting the Navy vs Notre Dame series (a series that won't be impacted by Saban's idea, btw).

Could be why north Dakota State is now having troubles scheduling P5 schools anymore. They have a winning record over FBS schools.

Iam going to give ESPN some credit here by saying that ESPN wants to build up a bigger fan base in all of college football, I mean why wouldn’t they want to do this, I think they know that it takes time and to do it in steps
The AAC fan base is bigger than it was 5 years ago and looks like to me is sure to grow more mybe much more
I think all the AAC schools are very serious about their football and have been spending money on stadiums up grades and or new stadiums and it looks like even Temple will get through the big city red tape and build an on campus stadium
If the AAC does in fact get 15m per team, this in itself will create lots of chatter with fans for for a few years and this will bring lots of attention to college football and that’s worth the money right there
Iam on the Aresco bandwagon with Pom poms and beer...

If the AAC's market value was truly, $8-$10-$15 million per year, wouldn't ESPN just pay the Big 12/SEC/ACC to take 3-4 schools (UCF, USF, Houston, Cincinnati) for a marginal increase in revenue distribution, in order to drive the value of the conference down in order to keep cheap content (ala 2012)? It doesn't make sense to pay such a substantial increase in yearly payouts when you can just take the value at the top and slide it into the P5 for a marginal increase, keeping the value of the product down and cost affordable.

ESPN has helped to craft the A5 and now imo, ESPN is in the business of establishing a tweener conference or two, if the AAC gets 15m then this proves my thinking
If Texas and Oklahoma leave the big12 then the big12 becomes a tweener just like the AAC and the A5 becomes the A4
G4 stays g4 but then the MWC schools will be screaming bloody murder but this creates even more fan interest from the MWC fans which in turn prompts them to spend money and do the things that will help make them a tweener

(07-25-2018 10:12 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  If the AAC's market value was truly, $8-$10-$15 million per year, wouldn't ESPN just pay the Big 12/SEC/ACC to take 3-4 schools (UCF, USF, Houston, Cincinnati) for a marginal increase in revenue distribution, in order to drive the value of the conference down in order to keep cheap content (ala 2012)? It doesn't make sense to pay such a substantial increase in yearly payouts when you can just take the value at the top and slide it into the P5 for a marginal increase, keeping the value of the product down and cost affordable.

Why? At 8 million per team they get the entire inventory of the AAC for 96 million.

To get the Big12 to expand, they have to give them an incentive to accept team they just rejected. A tiny 1 million per team raise for the existing Big12 teams means the 4 AAC teams taken must get 24 million each in order to make it work---thats 96 million---and ESPN only gets 24 games of inventory for that price. Not a great deal for ESPN---especially when they can probably buy a 24 game first tier package from the AAC from half that amount. That said, if the AAC is going to get 15 million a team---it maybe makes sense---but I dont think the AAC is going to get anywhere near 15 million a team. Im thinking more like 6-8 million per team.

I just look at it this way, the networks have over paid the A5 conferences anyway, so why not pay 15m to the AAC

I could see somewhere in the 8-10 range. 15 seems like a bit much.

(07-25-2018 10:12 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  If the AAC's market value was truly, $8-$10-$15 million per year, wouldn't ESPN just pay the Big 12/SEC/ACC to take 3-4 schools (UCF, USF, Houston, Cincinnati) for a marginal increase in revenue distribution, in order to drive the value of the conference down in order to keep cheap content (ala 2012)? It doesn't make sense to pay such a substantial increase in yearly payouts when you can just take the value at the top and slide it into the P5 for a marginal increase, keeping the value of the product down and cost affordable.

That only works if most of the value is tied up in 3-4 schools. If it's spread across, say, 6-8 schools, then the cheapest solution is to just pay the conference more.

(07-25-2018 01:37 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  I could see somewhere in the 8-10 range. 15 seems like a bit much.

I've been thinking $6 million, but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes as high as $10M. Have to agree that jumping from $2M to $15M doesn't sound plausible.