(10-08-2018 04:37 PM)seaking4steel Wrote:  Boise's access bowl chances are practically zero.

Yep.

Right now the NYD Access Bowl Bid is the AAC's to lose. Boise and the MWC are out.

(10-10-2018 02:38 AM)panite Wrote:  Right now the NYD Access Bowl Bid is the AAC's to lose. Boise and the MWC are out.

No one is out this early. Anything can and probably will happen. AAC is likely, but nothing is guaranteed until the games are played.

Boise is pretty close to being out right now for sure.... They would need chaos in the AAC west and then have that team win the title game....

(10-10-2018 09:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Boise is pretty close to being out right now for sure.... They would need chaos in the AAC west and then have that team win the title game....

Boise is out of it. The MW access bowl hopes lie elsewhere this season.

(10-10-2018 10:12 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 09:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Boise is pretty close to being out right now for sure.... They would need chaos in the AAC west and then have that team win the title game....

Boise is out of it.

Yes, there is a lack of realism among some posters here. With two losses, Boise is 99% out of it, it would take a total collapse in the AAC, like all the top teams losing two games, to bring them back into it.

Now, that might not be entirely fair - Boise has played a far tougher schedule (according to Sagarin) than the unbeaten AAC teams, who have played incredibly weak schedules so far. And, the "dirty secret" of the G5 conference standings right now is that the MWC has been improved this year, the AAC's Massey score is far closer to the MWC than it is to the nearest A5 conference.

But that just goes to show that record, not schedule, is the biggest factor in the polls, because the fact is, the AAC is close to 100% likely to get the NY6 spot.

(10-10-2018 10:19 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 10:12 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 09:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Boise is pretty close to being out right now for sure.... They would need chaos in the AAC west and then have that team win the title game....

Boise is out of it.

Yes, there is a lack of realism among some posters here. With two losses, Boise is 99% out of it, it would take a total collapse in the AAC, like all the top teams losing two games, to bring them back into it.

Now, that might not be entirely fair - Boise has played a far tougher schedule (according to Sagarin) than the unbeaten AAC teams, who have played incredibly weak schedules so far. And, the "dirty secret" of the G5 conference standings right now is that the MWC has been improved this year, the AAC's Massey score is far closer to the MWC than it is to the nearest A5 conference.

But that just goes to show that record, not schedule, is the biggest factor in the polls, because the fact is, the AAC is close to 100% likely to get the NY6 spot.

ESPN uses their FPI stats to calculate "strength of record" which is suposed to reflect the chance that an average top 25 would be able replicate a team's record against that team's schedule.
Ranking in SOR of the teams being talked about here:
USF 15
SDSU 16
Cincinnati 18
UCF 31
Utah State 34
App State 39
Houston 40
Fresno St 41
Troy 46
Hawaii 54
Boise St 63
Memphis 92

(10-10-2018 10:19 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 10:12 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 09:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Boise is pretty close to being out right now for sure.... They would need chaos in the AAC west and then have that team win the title game....

Boise is out of it.

Yes, there is a lack of realism among some posters here. With two losses, Boise is 99% out of it, it would take a total collapse in the AAC, like all the top teams losing two games, to bring them back into it.

Now, that might not be entirely fair - Boise has played a far tougher schedule (according to Sagarin) than the unbeaten AAC teams, who have played incredibly weak schedules so far. And, the "dirty secret" of the G5 conference standings right now is that the MWC has been improved this year, the AAC's Massey score is far closer to the MWC than it is to the nearest A5 conference.

But that just goes to show that record, not schedule, is the biggest factor in the polls, because the fact is, the AAC is close to 100% likely to get the NY6 spot.

The biggest key to me is that in addition to a pair of losses---Boise was absolutely blown out by what appears to be a Big-12 mid tier Oklahoma St. Thats not a resume that screams they need to be taken over the AAC champ. That of course is assuming Boise wins the MW--which isnt looking likely right now. Like I said, I think the MW's access bowl hopes lie elsewhere this year.

(10-10-2018 12:26 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 10:19 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 10:12 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 09:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Boise is pretty close to being out right now for sure.... They would need chaos in the AAC west and then have that team win the title game....

Boise is out of it.

Yes, there is a lack of realism among some posters here. With two losses, Boise is 99% out of it, it would take a total collapse in the AAC, like all the top teams losing two games, to bring them back into it.

Now, that might not be entirely fair - Boise has played a far tougher schedule (according to Sagarin) than the unbeaten AAC teams, who have played incredibly weak schedules so far. And, the "dirty secret" of the G5 conference standings right now is that the MWC has been improved this year, the AAC's Massey score is far closer to the MWC than it is to the nearest A5 conference.

But that just goes to show that record, not schedule, is the biggest factor in the polls, because the fact is, the AAC is close to 100% likely to get the NY6 spot.

The biggest key to me is that in addition to a pair of losses---Boise was absolutely blown out by what appears to be a Big-12 mid tier Oklahoma St. Thats not a resume that screams they need to be taken over the AAC champ. That of course is assuming Boise wins the MW--which isnt looking likely right now. Like I said, I think the MW's access bowl hopes lie elsewhere this year.

Yes, the OK-State loss looked bad when it happened - Boise was ranked 7 spots higher at the time - and it looks even worse now that OK-State appears to have been overrated themselves.

(10-10-2018 12:18 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 10:19 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 10:12 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 09:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Boise is pretty close to being out right now for sure.... They would need chaos in the AAC west and then have that team win the title game....

Boise is out of it.

Yes, there is a lack of realism among some posters here. With two losses, Boise is 99% out of it, it would take a total collapse in the AAC, like all the top teams losing two games, to bring them back into it.

Now, that might not be entirely fair - Boise has played a far tougher schedule (according to Sagarin) than the unbeaten AAC teams, who have played incredibly weak schedules so far. And, the "dirty secret" of the G5 conference standings right now is that the MWC has been improved this year, the AAC's Massey score is far closer to the MWC than it is to the nearest A5 conference.

But that just goes to show that record, not schedule, is the biggest factor in the polls, because the fact is, the AAC is close to 100% likely to get the NY6 spot.

ESPN uses their FPI stats to calculate "strength of record" which is suposed to reflect the chance that an average top 25 would be able replicate a team's record against that team's schedule.
Ranking in SOR of the teams being talked about here:
USF 15
SDSU 16
Cincinnati 18
UCF 31
Utah State 34
App State 39
Houston 40
Fresno St 41
Troy 46
Hawaii 54
Boise St 63
Memphis 92

Anybody or any thing, that actually watches the games, can clearly tell UCF should be on the top of the list. While we've been winning close games in the 4th quarter, UCF is destroying the teams they play.

(10-10-2018 05:25 PM)Sellular1 Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 12:18 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 10:19 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 10:12 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-10-2018 09:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Boise is pretty close to being out right now for sure.... They would need chaos in the AAC west and then have that team win the title game....

Boise is out of it.

Yes, there is a lack of realism among some posters here. With two losses, Boise is 99% out of it, it would take a total collapse in the AAC, like all the top teams losing two games, to bring them back into it.

Now, that might not be entirely fair - Boise has played a far tougher schedule (according to Sagarin) than the unbeaten AAC teams, who have played incredibly weak schedules so far. And, the "dirty secret" of the G5 conference standings right now is that the MWC has been improved this year, the AAC's Massey score is far closer to the MWC than it is to the nearest A5 conference.

But that just goes to show that record, not schedule, is the biggest factor in the polls, because the fact is, the AAC is close to 100% likely to get the NY6 spot.

ESPN uses their FPI stats to calculate "strength of record" which is suposed to reflect the chance that an average top 25 would be able replicate a team's record against that team's schedule.
Ranking in SOR of the teams being talked about here:
USF 15
SDSU 16
Cincinnati 18
UCF 31
Utah State 34
App State 39
Houston 40
Fresno St 41
Troy 46
Hawaii 54
Boise St 63
Memphis 92

Anybody or any thing, that actually watches the games, can clearly tell UCF should be on the top of the list. While we've been winning close games in the 4th quarter, UCF is destroying the teams they play.

We have struggled, but UCF has played a really soft schedule. Everyone they have destroyed has been destroyed at least as bad by someone else too.

Note to self. Don't schedule good teams OOC.

(10-11-2018 01:44 PM)Negative Optimist Wrote:  Note to self. Don't schedule good teams OOC.

That's how Bama does it.

(10-11-2018 02:17 PM)seaking4steel Wrote:  

(10-11-2018 01:44 PM)Negative Optimist Wrote:  Note to self. Don't schedule good teams OOC.

That's how Bama does it.

Funny, i recall Alabama often opening the season vs OOC powers.

but similar to Alabama- they get some quality games in conference play vs ranked teams. UCF has games with USF and Cincy this year that could easily end the year as top 25 opponents. There's no one in the MWC that can say the same thing at all. Folks just want to focus on OOC games- but it's your whole schedule.

(10-11-2018 02:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-11-2018 02:17 PM)seaking4steel Wrote:  

(10-11-2018 01:44 PM)Negative Optimist Wrote:  Note to self. Don't schedule good teams OOC.

That's how Bama does it.

Funny, i recall Alabama often opening the season vs OOC powers.

Maybe in the past, but recently its a neutral game against a perceived power that will struggle to get bowl eligible. FSU last year and Louisville this year are hardly solid OOC wins.

(10-11-2018 02:36 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(10-11-2018 02:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-11-2018 02:17 PM)seaking4steel Wrote:  

(10-11-2018 01:44 PM)Negative Optimist Wrote:  Note to self. Don't schedule good teams OOC.

That's how Bama does it.

Funny, i recall Alabama often opening the season vs OOC powers.

Maybe in the past, but recently its a neutral game against a perceived power that will struggle to get bowl eligible. FSU last year and Louisville this year are hardly solid OOC wins.

totlly agree with you on Louisville. FSU last year though a lot different- if Francois doesn't get injured they're a top 25 if not top 10 team......

(10-11-2018 02:36 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(10-11-2018 02:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-11-2018 02:17 PM)seaking4steel Wrote:  

(10-11-2018 01:44 PM)Negative Optimist Wrote:  Note to self. Don't schedule good teams OOC.

That's how Bama does it.

Funny, i recall Alabama often opening the season vs OOC powers.

Maybe in the past, but recently its a neutral game against a perceived power that will struggle to get bowl eligible. FSU last year and Louisville this year are hardly solid OOC wins.

That's true, and I totally agree that we can't give a team credit for good teams it didn't play.

But the issue here isn't Alabama's SOS, it's their scheduling, which is different. I mean, if team X scheduled Ohio State and Clemson next year OOC, at a time when they are both really good, we'd have to give them credit for brave scheduling even if both ended up 5-7 next year and no good. The 5-7s would be reflected in their SOS, which would not be good. When Alabama scheduled Louisville and FSU, everyone thought they'd be really good.

(10-11-2018 02:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-11-2018 02:36 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(10-11-2018 02:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-11-2018 02:17 PM)seaking4steel Wrote:  

(10-11-2018 01:44 PM)Negative Optimist Wrote:  Note to self. Don't schedule good teams OOC.

That's how Bama does it.

Funny, i recall Alabama often opening the season vs OOC powers.

Maybe in the past, but recently its a neutral game against a perceived power that will struggle to get bowl eligible. FSU last year and Louisville this year are hardly solid OOC wins.

That's true, and I totally agree that we can't give a team credit for good teams it didn't play.

But the issue here isn't Alabama's SOS, it's their scheduling, which is different. I mean, if team X scheduled Ohio State and Clemson next year OOC, at a time when they are both really good, we'd have to give them credit for brave scheduling even if both ended up 5-7 next year and no good. The 5-7s would be reflected in their SOS, which would not be good. When Alabama scheduled Louisville and FSU, everyone thought they'd be really good.

Not sure about Louisville. Everyone knew Jackson would be gone, so 1st game with a new QB.

Now having said that- your OOC schedule is only part of the story. Being in a division with LSU, Auburn, and even Texas A&M now- along with getting Georgia in the conference title game potentially- means your schedule is going to be extremely strong regardless of what you have OOC.

(10-11-2018 03:13 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Now having said that- your OOC schedule is only part of the story. Being in a division with LSU, Auburn, and even Texas A&M now- along with getting Georgia in the conference title game potentially- means your schedule is going to be extremely strong regardless of what you have OOC.

Correct - what matters is overall SOS, not OOC or IC by themselves.