There’s going to come a point where the best ACC properties start having conversions among themselves about how to bust up the conference so they can attach themselves to the Big 10 and SEC mega conferences. ND has got be cognizant rod this too and realize that their independence is dependent on the ACC existing and if Clemson, Florida St, VT, UNC, UVA, etc can’t afford to keep the league going they are going to have to face the music the same as the other 14.

(02-19-2022 09:46 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  There’s going to come a point where the best ACC properties start having conversions among themselves about how to bust up the conference so they can attach themselves to the Big 10 and SEC mega conferences. ND has got be cognizant rod this too and realize that their independence is dependent on the ACC existing and if Clemson, Florida St, VT, UNC, UVA, etc can’t afford to keep the league going they are going to have to face the music the same as the other 14.

Notre Dame will be fine if the ACC ceases to exist, so long as the Big XII doesn't go at the same time. I think the Big XII would be happy to offer them similar terms to what the ACC has. And while I don't think the SEC or PAC would, if it was a matter of preserving ND's ability to not join the ACC or B1G I could see the SEC offering a scheduling agreement where ND played a couple of SEC schools each year. The PAC might do so as well although I don't think they care as much about keeping ND away from the others. I see the conference interests this way -

ACC needs ND to join and save the ACC.
The B1G wants ND to join, and thus has an interest in keeping ND from joining any other conference.
The SEC wants ND to stay independent so that no competing conference gets the boost of their membership.
The Big XII is just trying to survive, and would be happy to have ND on the schedule to get more high-profile games.
The PAC is off in their corner and a bit above the fray. I don't see them as particularly caring if ND joins another conference or not and like the SEC, ND isn't a great fit for them.

partial membership in the Big 12 might be too much for the Irish to stomach—ND likes their road games in large urban areas with large Catholic populations—Lubbock, Stillwater, Ames, Manhattan, Lawrence, Waco, Provo, and Morgantown don’t exactly fit that model. If the ACC goes belly up and loses its best teams to the SEC, then independence gets a whole lot harder.

(02-19-2022 10:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  partial membership in the Big 12 might be too much for the Irish to stomach—ND likes their road games in large urban areas with large Catholic populations—Lubbock, Stillwater, Ames, Manhattan, Lawrence, Waco, Provo, and Morgantown don’t exactly fit that model. If the ACC goes belly up and loses its best teams to the SEC, then independence gets a whole lot harder.

I definitely think you're right that they prefer the ACC to the Big XII for that deal, but I also think they'll do what is necessary to both 1) remain independent and 2) maintain a viable path to the national championship. You may be right though and when the ACC dies, perhaps a scheduling agreement with the SEC or PAC would be their preferred option over partial XII membership.

I don’t watch football based on which which college conferences get the most money.

(02-19-2022 10:35 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(02-19-2022 10:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  partial membership in the Big 12 might be too much for the Irish to stomach—ND likes their road games in large urban areas with large Catholic populations—Lubbock, Stillwater, Ames, Manhattan, Lawrence, Waco, Provo, and Morgantown don’t exactly fit that model. If the ACC goes belly up and loses its best teams to the SEC, then independence gets a whole lot harder.

I definitely think you're right that they prefer the ACC to the Big XII for that deal, but I also think they'll do what is necessary to both 1) remain independent and 2) maintain a viable path to the national championship. You may be right though and when the ACC dies, perhaps a scheduling agreement with the SEC or PAC would be their preferred option over partial XII membership.

Remember that the Big East still exists as a possible outlet valve for ND, though. As a result, so don’t think whatever happens to the ACC has any real bearing on ND football independence.

(02-19-2022 11:14 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-19-2022 10:35 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(02-19-2022 10:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  partial membership in the Big 12 might be too much for the Irish to stomach—ND likes their road games in large urban areas with large Catholic populations—Lubbock, Stillwater, Ames, Manhattan, Lawrence, Waco, Provo, and Morgantown don’t exactly fit that model. If the ACC goes belly up and loses its best teams to the SEC, then independence gets a whole lot harder.

I definitely think you're right that they prefer the ACC to the Big XII for that deal, but I also think they'll do what is necessary to both 1) remain independent and 2) maintain a viable path to the national championship. You may be right though and when the ACC dies, perhaps a scheduling agreement with the SEC or PAC would be their preferred option over partial XII membership.

Remember that the Big East still exists as a possible outlet valve for ND, though. As a result, so don’t think whatever happens to the ACC has any real bearing on ND football independence.

Bowl games could be an issue. How well would Notre Dame be able to negotiate contracts as an independent?

(02-19-2022 11:37 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(02-19-2022 11:14 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-19-2022 10:35 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(02-19-2022 10:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  partial membership in the Big 12 might be too much for the Irish to stomach—ND likes their road games in large urban areas with large Catholic populations—Lubbock, Stillwater, Ames, Manhattan, Lawrence, Waco, Provo, and Morgantown don’t exactly fit that model. If the ACC goes belly up and loses its best teams to the SEC, then independence gets a whole lot harder.

I definitely think you're right that they prefer the ACC to the Big XII for that deal, but I also think they'll do what is necessary to both 1) remain independent and 2) maintain a viable path to the national championship. You may be right though and when the ACC dies, perhaps a scheduling agreement with the SEC or PAC would be their preferred option over partial XII membership.

Remember that the Big East still exists as a possible outlet valve for ND, though. As a result, so don’t think whatever happens to the ACC has any real bearing on ND football independence.

Bowl games could be an issue. How well would Notre Dame be able to negotiate contracts as an independent?

I think you're right about bowl games being an issue, but how much does ND care? I'm old enough to remember when they wouldn't go to just any bowl game. So long as they have a path to the really big games and a potential national title, I'm not sure that would overly concern them. Certainly not enough to give up their independence.

(02-19-2022 11:37 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(02-19-2022 11:14 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-19-2022 10:35 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(02-19-2022 10:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  partial membership in the Big 12 might be too much for the Irish to stomach—ND likes their road games in large urban areas with large Catholic populations—Lubbock, Stillwater, Ames, Manhattan, Lawrence, Waco, Provo, and Morgantown don’t exactly fit that model. If the ACC goes belly up and loses its best teams to the SEC, then independence gets a whole lot harder.

I definitely think you're right that they prefer the ACC to the Big XII for that deal, but I also think they'll do what is necessary to both 1) remain independent and 2) maintain a viable path to the national championship. You may be right though and when the ACC dies, perhaps a scheduling agreement with the SEC or PAC would be their preferred option over partial XII membership.

Remember that the Big East still exists as a possible outlet valve for ND, though. As a result, so don’t think whatever happens to the ACC has any real bearing on ND football independence.

Bowl games could be an issue. How well would Notre Dame be able to negotiate contracts as an independent?

Schools like Liberty have done so, I don't think it would be a problem for ND.

Heck, they are already saddled with the ACC's bowl structure, which IMO is maybe the poorest of all the P5 conferences.

(02-19-2022 12:37 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-19-2022 11:37 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(02-19-2022 11:14 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-19-2022 10:35 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(02-19-2022 10:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  partial membership in the Big 12 might be too much for the Irish to stomach—ND likes their road games in large urban areas with large Catholic populations—Lubbock, Stillwater, Ames, Manhattan, Lawrence, Waco, Provo, and Morgantown don’t exactly fit that model. If the ACC goes belly up and loses its best teams to the SEC, then independence gets a whole lot harder.

I definitely think you're right that they prefer the ACC to the Big XII for that deal, but I also think they'll do what is necessary to both 1) remain independent and 2) maintain a viable path to the national championship. You may be right though and when the ACC dies, perhaps a scheduling agreement with the SEC or PAC would be their preferred option over partial XII membership.

Remember that the Big East still exists as a possible outlet valve for ND, though. As a result, so don’t think whatever happens to the ACC has any real bearing on ND football independence.

Bowl games could be an issue. How well would Notre Dame be able to negotiate contracts as an independent?

Schools like Liberty have done so, I don't think it would be a problem for ND.

Heck, they are already saddled with the ACC's bowl structure, which IMO is maybe the poorest of all the P5 conferences.

The Pac 12 says hi. Why would they want to go to the Independence Bowl???

(02-19-2022 11:37 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(02-19-2022 11:14 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-19-2022 10:35 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(02-19-2022 10:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  partial membership in the Big 12 might be too much for the Irish to stomach—ND likes their road games in large urban areas with large Catholic populations—Lubbock, Stillwater, Ames, Manhattan, Lawrence, Waco, Provo, and Morgantown don’t exactly fit that model. If the ACC goes belly up and loses its best teams to the SEC, then independence gets a whole lot harder.

I definitely think you're right that they prefer the ACC to the Big XII for that deal, but I also think they'll do what is necessary to both 1) remain independent and 2) maintain a viable path to the national championship. You may be right though and when the ACC dies, perhaps a scheduling agreement with the SEC or PAC would be their preferred option over partial XII membership.

Remember that the Big East still exists as a possible outlet valve for ND, though. As a result, so don’t think whatever happens to the ACC has any real bearing on ND football independence.

Bowl games could be an issue. How well would Notre Dame be able to negotiate contracts as an independent?

If the playoffs do expand at some point in the future then the larger they get the less non-playoff bowls matter.

Right now with a 4 team playoff an undefeated Notre Dame is a lock to get in. If they expand at all then it's likely that a one loss Notre Dame becomes a lock. If they go to 12 teams then maybe even a 2 loss Notre Dame becomes a lock.

I think in order to stay independent Notre Dame would put up with subpar bowls when it has 3 to 6 losses.

The next logical realignment models for the SEC are 18 and 20. (24 could technically be on the table but seems a bit too radical just yet but with all the new $ in college football, who knows anymore.)

Pull 2-4 of the best ACC members out and the ACC still remains a credible basketball home and source of 5 football games for ND but that also means that from those 5 games they are not going to have any big name opponents, which I think in turn would make them more reliant on finding brand name Big 10, SEC, and PAC 12 opponents to build their playoff resume.

Realistically, how is ND going to be able to compete with schools being in over $70M a year for the media deals?

At that juncture, it might be in ND’s best interest financially to try to work on an expansion plan with the Big 10 that would give the Irish enough national exposure to make membership palatable.

(02-19-2022 05:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The next logical realignment models for the SEC are 18 and 20. (24 could technically be on the table but seems a bit too radical just yet but with all the new $ in college football, who knows anymore.)

Pull 2-4 of the best ACC members out and the ACC still remains a credible basketball home and source of 5 football games for ND but that also means that from those 5 games they are not going to have any big name opponents, which I think in turn would make them more reliant on finding brand name Big 10, SEC, and PAC 12 opponents to build their playoff resume.

Realistically, how is ND going to be able to compete with schools being in over $70M a year for the media deals?

At that juncture, it might be in ND’s best interest financially to try to work on an expansion plan with the Big 10 that would give the Irish enough national exposure to make membership palatable.

IMO, the next logical expansion move for the SEC is not to expand at all. Get any bigger, and you risk losing all the value the SEC has built up over the past 30 years due to an internal schism that literally splits the conference in two.

Heck, I didn't think the SEC should expand from 14 to 16, because once you are at 16, you basically are incubating two fully-formed eight member conferences, which IMO is inherently unstable.

Of course, the SEC couldn't say no to TX and OU. Nobody could. But there is still that risk. So I certainly don't think they should move beyond that.

IMO, the whole point of making your conference stronger is for your schools to have an advantage over other conferences and their schools. Bring those other conferences inside yours, and you've lost that advantage. That's why I also think a "super conference" is unlikely.

(02-19-2022 05:33 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-19-2022 05:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The next logical realignment models for the SEC are 18 and 20. (24 could technically be on the table but seems a bit too radical just yet but with all the new $ in college football, who knows anymore.)

Pull 2-4 of the best ACC members out and the ACC still remains a credible basketball home and source of 5 football games for ND but that also means that from those 5 games they are not going to have any big name opponents, which I think in turn would make them more reliant on finding brand name Big 10, SEC, and PAC 12 opponents to build their playoff resume.

Realistically, how is ND going to be able to compete with schools being in over $70M a year for the media deals?

At that juncture, it might be in ND’s best interest financially to try to work on an expansion plan with the Big 10 that would give the Irish enough national exposure to make membership palatable.

IMO, the next logical expansion move for the SEC is not to expand at all. Get any bigger, and you risk losing all the value the SEC has built up over the past 30 years due to an internal schism that literally splits the conference in two.

Heck, I didn't think the SEC should expand from 14 to 16, because once you are at 16, you basically are incubating two fully-formed eight member conferences, which IMO is inherently unstable.

Of course, the SEC couldn't say no to TX and OU. Nobody could. But there is still that risk. So I certainly don't think they should move beyond that.

IMO, the whole point of making your conference stronger is for your schools to have an advantage over other conferences and their schools. Bring those other conferences inside yours, and you've lost that advantage. That's why I also think a "super conference" is unlikely.

Hey, wake up and smell the coffee, read the news, and reflect. Eight team conferences cannot exist in this business model. You are crying wolf. All conferences serve the moment and those which refuse to adjust tend to die, or haven't you noticed? In the present pay models 18, 20, and 24 just mean more leverage and more content. Therefore, more money. Yes, you still need to make additions profitable, but brand synergy is now a value unto itself.

When 16 or 20 no longer earns significantly more by virtue of brand synergy (which means when top match ups no longer matter, so don't hold your breath) then maybe we see 8 again, (which would mean in a massive depression when travel is too costly compared to earnings).

So yeah, a real likelihood, huh?

(02-19-2022 05:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The next logical realignment models for the SEC are 18 and 20. (24 could technically be on the table but seems a bit too radical just yet but with all the new $ in college football, who knows anymore.)

Pull 2-4 of the best ACC members out and the ACC still remains a credible basketball home and source of 5 football games for ND but that also means that from those 5 games they are not going to have any big name opponents, which I think in turn would make them more reliant on finding brand name Big 10, SEC, and PAC 12 opponents to build their playoff resume.

Realistically, how is ND going to be able to compete with schools being in over $70M a year for the media deals?

At that juncture, it might be in ND’s best interest financially to try to work on an expansion plan with the Big 10 that would give the Irish enough national exposure to make membership palatable.

I think 20 is the most profitable and 24 is likely more practically accomplished.

Va Tech, North Carolina, Miami/F.S.U., and Notre Dame would be the most profitahle. That's the 2 top draws in a combined market approaching 21 million (UNC/VaTech), an additional Florida school bringing ad leverage in a large state, and the nation's top remaining brand which adds markets extant the SEC's footprint. If ND isn't possible (and likely it isn't) then you look at Clemson, Kansas, or maybe Duke.

Taking more just makes movement easier, but only if it is minimally pro rata.

Ditto for the B1G with regard to the PAC or ACC.

(02-19-2022 05:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The next logical realignment models for the SEC are 18 and 20. (24 could technically be on the table but seems a bit too radical just yet but with all the new $ in college football, who knows anymore.)

Pull 2-4 of the best ACC members out and the ACC still remains a credible basketball home and source of 5 football games for ND but that also means that from those 5 games they are not going to have any big name opponents, which I think in turn would make them more reliant on finding brand name Big 10, SEC, and PAC 12 opponents to build their playoff resume.

Realistically, how is ND going to be able to compete with schools being in over $70M a year for the media deals?

At that juncture, it might be in ND’s best interest financially to try to work on an expansion plan with the Big 10 that would give the Irish enough national exposure to make membership palatable.

At minimum you'd want Southern Cal and Stanford (along with UCLA to fully cover the Los Angeles market). At that point, we'd have to fill in the Western markets, including Denver. The Phoenix market should also be coveted, which means that Arizona State would have to be given the Michigan State/Nebraska treatment, which also means that one of the 4 Corners AAU may have to be left behind to stop at 24. I don't think it's possible to go West and South at the same time, since the 4-letter monster will make sure that the Big Ten won't breach the Va/Md line.

(02-19-2022 07:24 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(02-19-2022 05:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The next logical realignment models for the SEC are 18 and 20. (24 could technically be on the table but seems a bit too radical just yet but with all the new $ in college football, who knows anymore.)

Pull 2-4 of the best ACC members out and the ACC still remains a credible basketball home and source of 5 football games for ND but that also means that from those 5 games they are not going to have any big name opponents, which I think in turn would make them more reliant on finding brand name Big 10, SEC, and PAC 12 opponents to build their playoff resume.

Realistically, how is ND going to be able to compete with schools being in over $70M a year for the media deals?

At that juncture, it might be in ND’s best interest financially to try to work on an expansion plan with the Big 10 that would give the Irish enough national exposure to make membership palatable.

At minimum you'd want Southern Cal and Stanford (along with UCLA to fully cover the Los Angeles market). At that point, we'd have to fill in the Western markets, including Denver. The Phoenix market should also be coveted, which means that Arizona State would have to be given the Michigan State/Nebraska treatment, which also means that one of the 4 Corners AAU may have to be left behind to stop at 24. I don't think it's possible to go West and South at the same time, since the 4-letter monster will make sure that the Big Ten won't breach the Va/Md line.

I think you’d be looking at schools like USC, Stanford, Miami, GT, UVA, and Pitt to complete the ranks of a 20 team Big 10.

(02-19-2022 10:12 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(02-19-2022 09:46 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  There’s going to come a point where the best ACC properties start having conversions among themselves about how to bust up the conference so they can attach themselves to the Big 10 and SEC mega conferences. ND has got be cognizant rod this too and realize that their independence is dependent on the ACC existing and if Clemson, Florida St, VT, UNC, UVA, etc can’t afford to keep the league going they are going to have to face the music the same as the other 14.

Notre Dame will be fine if the ACC ceases to exist, so long as the Big XII doesn't go at the same time. I think the Big XII would be happy to offer them similar terms to what the ACC has. And while I don't think the SEC or PAC would, if it was a matter of preserving ND's ability to not join the ACC or B1G I could see the SEC offering a scheduling agreement where ND played a couple of SEC schools each year. The PAC might do so as well although I don't think they care as much about keeping ND away from the others. I see the conference interests this way -

ACC needs ND to join and save the ACC.
The B1G wants ND to join, and thus has an interest in keeping ND from joining any other conference.
The SEC wants ND to stay independent so that no competing conference gets the boost of their membership.
The Big XII is just trying to survive, and would be happy to have ND on the schedule to get more high-profile games.
The PAC is off in their corner and a bit above the fray. I don't see them as particularly caring if ND joins another conference or not and like the SEC, ND isn't a great fit for them.

Gamenole, this is going to sound insane, but I would add this ridiculous option out there, simply because I am pretty aware of how Notre Dame thinks now, IMO:

ND contacts the Big East about joining again.

Yes, it sounds outlandish. Notre Dame has had this option before, and chose the ACC instead. What's different?? Your answer is E$PN.

24 team conferences is absolutely outlandish. That's two leagues with a scheduling agreement.

(02-20-2022 04:33 AM)CFBLurker Wrote:  24 team conferences is absolutely outlandish. That's two leagues with a scheduling agreement.

Pretty much, but in the world of streaming and media contracts, that's more content, pure and simple.

I'm surprised we aren't seeing certain conferences teaming up and realigning amongst themselves, to offer a broader grouping of content.

For example, imagine if the ACC, the B12, the AAC, and the MWC, all realigned into new conferences/divisions by geography, but were united together as a "package" when selling media rights. They'd have a coast to coast set of divisions. This could give them greater leverage power for such deals.

I wouldn't be surprised if something like this were to happen if the B10 and the SEC go on a raiding spree to the B12 and the ACC teams again.

And I think that this is where the B10 and the Pac are headed. 2 separate conferences, but united. The B10/Pac/ACC alliance could have been the start of something like this, but I have a feeling the ACC's recent actions likely have cost them that possibility.