(01-02-2024 02:12 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 02:07 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 01:58 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 09:13 AM)goofus Wrote:  All the bowls proved to me is that the playoffs needed to have at least 8 teams this year.

Mich, Wash, Tex, Bama, FSU, Georgia, Ohio St, Oregon

Under this scenerio, all 8 teams don't have the opt outs/transfers that hurt them so much during their bowl games. The opt outs/transfers especially hurt FSU and Ohio St.

Oregon lost twice, they deserved nothing. There were 7 school in the conversation or on the periphery of it, but Oregon was not one of them.

Oregon lost twice, by three points to Washington. An easy argument could be made they are the second or third best team in CFB.

They have just as good or better of a case for an eight-team playoff as any of the others.

Now, I would say a lot better case than most teams. If Washington wins very easily could be the second best team.

They were too good for the best G5 teams by a wide margin. UGA should have played Oregon and Liberty played FSU.

That would have been great - especially the Georgia-Oregon matchup

(01-02-2024 02:22 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 02:07 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 01:58 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 09:13 AM)goofus Wrote:  All the bowls proved to me is that the playoffs needed to have at least 8 teams this year.

Mich, Wash, Tex, Bama, FSU, Georgia, Ohio St, Oregon

Under this scenerio, all 8 teams don't have the opt outs/transfers that hurt them so much during their bowl games. The opt outs/transfers especially hurt FSU and Ohio St.

Oregon lost twice, they deserved nothing. There were 7 school in the conversation or on the periphery of it, but Oregon was not one of them.

Oregon lost twice, by three points to Washington. An easy argument could be made they are the second or third best team in CFB.

They have just as good or better of a case for an eight-team playoff as any of the others.

If you want to include Oregon then what about Penn St, Missouri, Ole Miss or OU? Oregon lost, then they lost the rematch, they were very lucky to get a 2nd chance and certainly didn't deserve a 3rd. How many polls would rank Oregon ahead of Washington if they both made the CFP, met in the CFP title game and Oregon then won by 3? After losing twice to Washington already and having more losses? Washington would be #1 in both the AP and Coaches poll, and deservedly so.

Then the pollsters would be idiots. Oregon would have won the important game.

Penn State is in the next group - if we went to 12, like next year, then yes. But they lost by more than one score to two different teams

Missouri had a loss to a team (by more than one score) that wouldn't make the Top 12 teams.

Ole Miss - they got blown out by the only two really good teams they faced in the regular season.

Yes, all were two-loss teams, Oregon has the best case of the four.

The Sagarin ratings are interesting (to me at least). Each team has four different scores: the Predictor, Golden Mean, Recent and Rating (which is a synthesis of the first three). The Golden Mean score takes into account not just wins and losses, but also the score of games (margin of victory).

In that rating, Sagarin's Top Ten are:

Michigan
Oregon
Georgia
Washington
Texas
Alabama
Ohio State
Penn State
Florida State
Notre Dame

Oregon seems to be the odd duck here, having lost twice to UW. But those losses were both close games, and Washington was 3-0 against the Top 10 in the overall rating, and 7-0 against the Top 30, with a strength of schedule ranked #5. A lot of their wins were by relatively small margins, while Oregon's wins were far more decisive.

Notable also is that FSU is only ranked #9 in the Golden Mean and #13 in the overall rating with no Top 10 wins and a schedule strength of #56. Clearly, his model would have no problem with leaving the Noles out of the CFP (and they wouldn't even have been in a 12 team CFP except that they were a conference champ).

FWIW, Liberty was #56 in the composite ranking.

(01-02-2024 02:11 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 01:03 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 12:57 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Most important bowl win % IMO:

NY6 Bowls

SEC ......... 3-1
PAC ......... 2-0
B1G ......... 1-2
B12 ......... 0-1
ACC ......... 0-1
CUSA ....... 0-1

IMO there's no use pretending that the Quick Lane Bowl and the Pop Tarts Bowl are equivalent to the major bowls.

Wouldn’t the most important bowl win% look more like this?

CFP Results

B1G: 1-0
Future B1G: 1-0
SEC: 0-1
Future SEC: 0-1

Or maybe for a more complete picture:

SEC: 14 titles in 20 years
B1G: 1 title in 27 years, 2.5 in 50 years
ACC: 3 titles in 10 years

Got a feeling that the title count will be pretty even between the Big Ten and SEC over the next two decades.

(01-02-2024 02:18 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 01:04 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 01:01 PM)inutech Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 12:57 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Most important bowl win % IMO:

NY6 Bowls

SEC ......... 3-1
PAC ......... 2-0
B1G ......... 1-2
B12 ......... 0-1
ACC ......... 0-1
CUSA ....... 0-1

IMO there's no use pretending that the Quick Lane Bowl and the Pop Tarts Bowl are equivalent to the major bowls.

Sure they are. Why wouldn't they be? They're all just exhibition games except for the playoff games.

Always have been.

Not to me. For example, as a Notre Dame fan, I'm acutely aware that we haven't won a national title in 35 years. But I'm also acutely aware that we haven't won a major bowl in 30 years, since the 1994 Cotton Bowl. That streak irks almost as much.

And numerous wins in the Sun Bowl, Gator Bowl, etc., while valued, don't make up for that.

That's how it was when I was growing up, next to winning the national title, the best achievement was to win a Major bowl. We'd all watch the Cotton Bowl, Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl, and Orange Bowl, and whoever won those had had championship seasons.

It's not that way anymore, and it hasn't been for a long time. Now, it's all about Conference Championships, making the Playoff, winning Playoff Games, and winning the Title. Major Bowls are just a consolation prize, we won the Cotton in 2012 and the Orange in 2020, they meant very little. Starting next year that process will just be nearly complete, with Major Bowls relegated to the "Liberty Bowl" zone of "nobody cares at all b/c you missed the CFP again".

Your Cotton Bowl win was, sadly, when the Cotton was not a major bowl.

But the Orange Bowl win, that was something, a genuine achievement for Jimbo.

I mean yeah, there has been some watering down. Six major bowls is bogus, four is the proper number. And Oregon winning one by beating a charity-case G5 team. It's not exactly like the old days when everyone in a major bowl was a conference champ or their equivalent. But it's still close.

(01-02-2024 02:32 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 02:22 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 02:07 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 01:58 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 09:13 AM)goofus Wrote:  All the bowls proved to me is that the playoffs needed to have at least 8 teams this year.

Mich, Wash, Tex, Bama, FSU, Georgia, Ohio St, Oregon

Under this scenerio, all 8 teams don't have the opt outs/transfers that hurt them so much during their bowl games. The opt outs/transfers especially hurt FSU and Ohio St.

Oregon lost twice, they deserved nothing. There were 7 school in the conversation or on the periphery of it, but Oregon was not one of them.

Oregon lost twice, by three points to Washington. An easy argument could be made they are the second or third best team in CFB.

They have just as good or better of a case for an eight-team playoff as any of the others.

If you want to include Oregon then what about Penn St, Missouri, Ole Miss or OU? Oregon lost, then they lost the rematch, they were very lucky to get a 2nd chance and certainly didn't deserve a 3rd. How many polls would rank Oregon ahead of Washington if they both made the CFP, met in the CFP title game and Oregon then won by 3? After losing twice to Washington already and having more losses? Washington would be #1 in both the AP and Coaches poll, and deservedly so.

Then the pollsters would be idiots. Oregon would have won the important game.

Penn State is in the next group - if we went to 12, like next year, then yes. But they lost by more than one score to two different teams

Missouri had a loss to a team (by more than one score) that wouldn't make the Top 12 teams.

Ole Miss - they got blown out by the only two really good teams they faced in the regular season.

Yes, all were two-loss teams, Oregon has the best case of the four.

LSU was #13 in the CFP poll. You are disingenuous with your Missouri comment. Ole Miss beat LSU.
LSU lost 3 games-nail biters at Tuscaloosa and Oxford and a 3 TD loss to FSU in Orlando.

(01-02-2024 06:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 02:32 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 02:22 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 02:07 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 01:58 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Oregon lost twice, they deserved nothing. There were 7 school in the conversation or on the periphery of it, but Oregon was not one of them.

Oregon lost twice, by three points to Washington. An easy argument could be made they are the second or third best team in CFB.

They have just as good or better of a case for an eight-team playoff as any of the others.

If you want to include Oregon then what about Penn St, Missouri, Ole Miss or OU? Oregon lost, then they lost the rematch, they were very lucky to get a 2nd chance and certainly didn't deserve a 3rd. How many polls would rank Oregon ahead of Washington if they both made the CFP, met in the CFP title game and Oregon then won by 3? After losing twice to Washington already and having more losses? Washington would be #1 in both the AP and Coaches poll, and deservedly so.

Then the pollsters would be idiots. Oregon would have won the important game.

Penn State is in the next group - if we went to 12, like next year, then yes. But they lost by more than one score to two different teams

Missouri had a loss to a team (by more than one score) that wouldn't make the Top 12 teams.

Ole Miss - they got blown out by the only two really good teams they faced in the regular season.

Yes, all were two-loss teams, Oregon has the best case of the four.

LSU was #13 in the CFP poll. You are disingenuous with your Missouri comment. Ole Miss beat LSU.
LSU lost 3 games-nail biters at Tuscaloosa and Oxford and a 3 TD loss to FSU in Orlando.

Honestly not impressed with either Ole Miss or LSU this year.

And since FSU, according to some on here shouldn't make a 8-team playoff, losing by 3 touchdowns means LSU really, really stinks...



Oregon and Washington have been disregarded all season. They are top tier teams.

(01-02-2024 06:19 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 02:11 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 01:03 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 12:57 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Most important bowl win % IMO:

NY6 Bowls

SEC ......... 3-1
PAC ......... 2-0
B1G ......... 1-2
B12 ......... 0-1
ACC ......... 0-1
CUSA ....... 0-1

IMO there's no use pretending that the Quick Lane Bowl and the Pop Tarts Bowl are equivalent to the major bowls.

Wouldn’t the most important bowl win% look more like this?

CFP Results

B1G: 1-0
Future B1G: 1-0
SEC: 0-1
Future SEC: 0-1

Or maybe for a more complete picture:

SEC: 14 titles in 20 years
B1G: 1 title in 27 years, 2.5 in 50 years
ACC: 3 titles in 10 years

Got a feeling that the title count will be pretty even between the Big Ten and SEC over the next two decades.

Doubt you will see any from any conference but the P2. M2 will start the fall toward G5 as players will develop and transfer to top programs in the top conferences.