(10-11-2017 12:26 AM)murrdcu Wrote: So the networks merge the ACC scraps with the Big 12 scraps? I don't see it developing like this as ESPN is starting to get the ACC network bundled in major cable packages.
Right now the PAC, very low network distribution, and the Big 12, no conference network but individual third tier rights, are the fragile conferences heading into the 2020's.
What you say is true. But the ACC is still tied for the least viewed, still holds the properties that ESPN could profit even more from should they be in a majority held SEC and a majority held Big 10 which by 2035-6 could again find its way into ESPN hands.
2019 to 2035 will be way more than enough time to see if the ACCN is viable. If it can't close the gap for them then perhaps ESPN parses them out. The SEC and B1G could easily take the 12 necessary to void the GOR and dissolve the conference.
But, I'll say this. If ESPN goes all out to land Texas and Oklahoma then I take that as a solid sign that the ACC will be fine no matter what and that ESPN will continue to settle for some of the Big 10 and split the lease with FOX on the PAC.
The reason being that ESPN will have gained total control over Texas and Oklahoma which together represent 70% of the total viewership of the Big 12 and which are also the two states with the highest % of total viewers who actually watch. That means a monopoly for ESPN over the two states should they wind up in either or both of the ACC and SEC. I think ESPN would be quite content with that.
Texas will want to stick with buddies new or old. So if Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State can be lured to the SEC an 18 member conference emerges for us:
Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
Alabama, Auburn, L.S.U., Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Then if ESPN truly wants to build up the ACCN I suggest they add Tulane, Houston and T.C.U.. Then an 18 member ACC arises.
Florida State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami, T.C.U., Tulane
Clemson, Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest
Boston College, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech.
If N.D. has to remain a partial then add West Virginia in that divisional slot.
New Orleans, Houston and Dallas Ft Worth are worth a lot more money to the ACCN than Connecticut and Cincinnati. Notre Dame and Louisville carry a lot of Cincinnati. B.C. and Syracuse cover a lot of Connecticut's peripheral markets already. So for the cost of leaving the state of Connecticut uncovered the ACC gains quite a bit of bite down I10.
If however Texas and Oklahoma head West or North then I look for ESPN to go after the Big 10 contract and placate and expand the SEC.