(10-11-2018 04:30 AM)DavidSt Wrote: (10-10-2018 05:39 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote: (10-10-2018 04:59 PM)DavidSt Wrote: (10-10-2018 04:27 PM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote: (10-10-2018 02:37 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote: According to Massey's math:
UCF would be undefeated against USU's schedule, SDSU's schedule, or Boise's schedule.
Massey would predict losses for USF, Cincinnati, and Houston at Michigan State.
Massey predicts a loss for those three at Stanford too.
In addition to UCF winning, Massey predicts that USF or Houston would win hosting SDSU (like Boise)
Using "Massey's math", Appalachian State would lose to UCF, but beat the rest of you AAC and MWC clowns.
But, Massy do not have the eyeballs to do the test. Appalachian State, Boise State and San Diego State, and even Fresno State have been tested by playing the stronger P5 schools. The AAC and Troy played the weaker P5 schools. That is why the MWC along with Appalachian State seems to be better than the AAC. MWC already proved that they have better teams on the field performance. Air Force is one step closer of winning the Commander in Chief trophy. They dominated Navy.
Hawaii beat NaVy
Boise State beat UConn.
Air Force beat Navy
As it is, MWC is 3-0 against AAC so far this year. Nobody suspected that Navy would be terrible this year.
SMU beat Navy.
Whatever anyone suspected six weeks ago, Navy is a team with one FBS win.
Those Navy facts, and the AAC-mwc games you cited, have nothing to do do with whether UCF is a better team than Boise by every objective measure. I keep coming with data, and you say "seems"
Those data are wrong. Computers really can't tell who is a better team. Some computers have Boise State still way ahead of everybody in the G5 schools even when they lost to San Diego State. UCF, USF and Cincinnati filled their schedules with cupcakes. NDSU could beat those 3 with their hands tied behind their backs.
I'll re-engage here one more time for a couple reasons.
First you correctly used "those data" so thank you for that.
Second, I realized that what I thought had been said here was in the other, very similar thread.
My first point I'll pull from over there. ESPN uses their FPI stats to calculate "strength of record" which is supposed to reflect the chance that an average top 25 would be able replicate a team's record against that team's schedule.
Ranking in SOR of the teams being talked about here:
USF 15
SDSU 16
Cincinnati 18
UCF 31
Utah State 34
App State 39
Houston 40
Fresno St 41
Troy 46
Hawaii 54
Boise St 63
You say the non-AAC teams were "tested" by playing tougher teams, but losing to a good team doesn't necessarily make you good. Who have they actually beaten?
Avg Massey Composite Ranking of FBS WINS:
SDSU - 61
Houston 78.5
Fresno 89.3
Boise 90.3
USF 91.75
Utah St 92.3
UCF 93.25
Cincinnati 98
App St 107
Hawaii 112
SDSU looks good here. But the difference between 89.3 and 93.25 is pretty negligible. Fresno, Boise, Utah St - no advantage over USF, UCF. Cincy is another step down, and App/Hawaii are way down.
Does anyone have one big signature win that can overcome an AAC team that has a better record and is already ahead in the rankings? Nope. I don't see a lot of difference between Arizona State at 53 and Illinois at 82.
Quality win - in order of ranking of team beaten:
SDSU - Boise 39
Boise - Troy 52
SDSU - Arizona State 53
USF - Georgia Tech 63
Utah State - BYU 68
UCF - Pitt 72
App St - Ark St 76
Fresno - Toledo 77
UCF - FAU 78
Houston - Arizona 79
USF - Illinois 82
Cincinnati - Ohio 87
Cincinnati - Tulane 88
I could go further down, and even highlight that USF's FCS win over Elon is a better win than some FBS wins of USU, Boise, SDSU, Fresno, Hawaii, and App State. But that got all the teams on the list at least once and the averages tell the story further down.
But the point is, your feelings that the records to date, the results on the field, somehow favor mwc or other non-contract-bowl-conference teams over the undefeated or one-loss AAC teams are just flat-out-incorrect.